Adam Blythe backs Vingegaard to level Tour de France rivalry with Pogacar: “I think they forgot last year, and when Jonas was injured”

Grand Tour season is nearly upon us. In just four days, the 2025 Giro d’Italia will roll out on May 9th, kicking off the summer of elite stage racing that will lead us into July and the sport’s biggest spectacle, the Tour de France.

This year’s Tour, which begins on July 5th, is already shaping up to be another thrilling showdown between Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard. The pair have dominated the race in recent years, claiming every edition since 2020 between them. Pogacar won in 2020 and 2021, while Vingegaard hit back with dominant displays in 2022 and 2023. Last year, it was Pogacar who stormed to victory, taking yellow with a commanding performance that left no doubt about his supremacy.

Still, not everyone is convinced Pogacar will have it all his own way in 2025.

Former rider and TNT Sports pundit Adam Blythe has weighed in ahead of the Tour, tipping Jonas Vingegaard to return to the top and claim his third yellow jersey.

"If you go back two years, Jonas gained 2.5 minutes (1.38 minutes) on him in one time trial," Blythe recalled, though slightly off in the numbers. "I think that is forgotten."

"And on a mountain stage he even took six minutes off him," he added. In 2023, Vingegaard’s victory margin over Pogacar was nearly seven and a half minutes, a staggering gap. The following year, Pogacar flipped the script with a dominant ride of his own, winning the 2024 Tour by more than six minutes.

However, Blythe suggested that margin may be misleading, given the Dane’s disrupted build-up.

"I think they forgot last year, and when Jonas was injured," he said, referencing Vingegaard’s crash in the Basque Country earlier that spring.

There’s no denying that when Vingegaard is at his best, he has a unique ability to expose even Pogacar’s limits, something the Slovenian has yet to fully reciprocate. While Pogacar beat Vingegaard decisively on several climbs in 2024, Blythe sees a difference in how those victories played out.

Pogacar’s wins came with Vingegaard simply unable to respond, while in 2022 and 2023, it was the Dane who forced a total collapse. On the Col du Granon in 2022, Pogacar lost 2:51. A year later, he cracked spectacularly on the Col de la Loze, conceding nearly six minutes.

"I don't think they underestimate him, but if you look at what Jonas did last year... He won that stage after only being on the bike for six weeks in the run-up to the Tour de France," Blythe pointed out, referring to Vingegaard’s stage win on stage 11.

"He still managed to beat the best Tadej we had seen so far. He has a much better preparation than last year. If I were UAE Team Emirates – XRG, I would be worried about him. When Jonas is in top form, Tadej has never beaten him."

There’s no doubt that Blythe may just have a point, but 2025’s form book so far would suggest that Pogacar is the man to beat. So far this year, Pogacar has won the Tour of Flanders and Liege-Bastogne-Liege, as well as Strade Bianche, and picked up podiums at Milano-Sanremo and Paris-Roubaix. So, alongside Mathieu van der Poel, the world champion was definitely the star of the spring.

Vingegaard, on the other hand, has had a quiet spring. Yes he won the Volta ao Algarve, albeit not in very impressive fashion, but he did have to abandon Paris-Nice due to a crash. Still, it is true that Vingegaard always saves his best for July, and if anyone can beat Pogacar, it will most likely be the Dane.