PREVIEW | Paris-Nice 2025 stage 5 - Can João Almeida take more time on Jonas Vingegaard on 18% climb?
Cycling
Paris-Nice is one of the most reputable and toughest stage-races in the World Tour calendar and every single year it hosts many of the world's best climbers, sprinters and classics riders. This year the race takes place from the 9th to 16th of March. We preview stage 5.
Stage 5 is the day where the organizers best organized something for the classics specialists. This is terrain just like the Ardennes, and the finale is incredibly similar to La Fléche Wallonne. There will be plenty short and sharp climbs in the final hour of racing, where some stage hunters and GC riders will mix for an exciting finale.
In the last 40 kilometers, besides the final climb, there will be five small hilltops. Most are steep, but none of large duration. With 37, 32.5, 29.5, 16.5 and 13 kilometers to go there will be the end of some important spots on the day. The run-up to the final climb in itself isn't completely flat, instead it also has a small ramp.
But it's in the ascent to the Notre-Dame-de-Sciez (with gradients up to 18%) to the line that we'll have the most fireworks. Don't expect early attacks, it's a suffocating climb that slowly rises in gradient until 18% (or perhaps 24%, depending on which profile you trust more)... Creating gaps is impossible, so one way or another it will come down to a sprint. However, if someone decides to go early, it will be one of the most painful sprints of their lives. Gaps are expected at the summit, it's a purely anaerobic effort, with a technical start to the climb meaning there will be a big fight for positioning.
The Weather
Another day with some chances of rain. The forecast doesn't predict something as dramatic as today, but you never know... The western breeze throughout the day can certainly benefit a breakaway, whilst on the final climb it'll have no impact.
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The Favourites
GC Fight - This is going to be a terribly steep finale and with a flat run-up, don't expect the GC men to attack early on, it won't happen and it would be too big of a risk. The fight for the yellow jersey will be interesting. Merely a long sprint so to say, but we will see gaps at the finish and they could be as big as today's.
Jonas Vingegaard and João Almeida were the strongest today but the reality is that both of them prefer the long climbs, and so they may not have an advantage over the rest here. Matteo Jorgenson can deal with the short climbs quite well but as a heavier rider, these brutal gradients will not favour him.
I think we will have the main GC contenders almost equally matched to be honest. Mattias Skjelmose and Lenny Martínez should be more favoured by such gradients as they are more explosive whilst Florian Lipowitz also shouldn't have too much of an issue to repeat a performance as today's. There will be other GC riders present, but not fighting for the stage win likely.
Now, this is a finale for the GC riders to take the spotlight, but I think the climb is short enough and the field is strong enough that you can indeed have some non-GC riders fight for the win. Jhonatan Narváez, of course, is the number 1 figure coming to mind, who struggled today but has shown form already in this race and loves these steep and explosive finales that usually end in a sprint. I put high expectations, although UAE already has two GC riders to support when it comes to positioning for the finish...
There is an interesting Julian Alaphilippe, but the Frenchman typically uses his power to attack early on in an unnecessary fashion and if he does the same again he will ruin his chances of winning. Even if not, I think he doesn't have the form to contest for this one, but could be present.
Clément Champoussin, Aurélien Paret-Peintre, Jefferson Alveiro Cepeda, Max Schachmann, Michael Matthews... Who knows, even Mads Pedersen can fight for a top result if he repeats a climbing performance like today's.
Prediction Paris-Nice 2025 stage 5:
*** Jonas Vingegaard, Jhonatan Narváez
** Mattias Skjelmose, João Almeida, Lenny Martínez, Matteo Jorgenson
* Florian Lipowitz, Brandon McNulty, Julian Alaphilippe, Clément Champoussin, Aurélien Paret-Peintre, Mads Pedersen, Harold Tejada, Thymen Arensman
Pick: Jonas Vingegaard
How: Sprint win, although of course there will be gaps due to the gradients.
Original: Rúben Silva
☀ Voici le parcours de #ParisNice 2025 !
— Paris-Nice (@ParisNice) December 17, 2024
☀Here is the route of #ParisNice 2025! pic.twitter.com/ynMCs4sVut
If Skjelmose doesn't win tomorrow he has very little chance against Pogi on Mur de Huy in FW
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- I love listening to Geraint Thomas, he is such a great sportsman.awp26-03-2025
- Liege or Amstel are a little different. Only he knows what really works for him. I'm a bit disappointed that he is not going to focus on any other races potentially until the Dauphine. If you don't have race days in the legs no matter how good you are it generally gives a negative result. I had argued that he knew what works for him the other day but he seems to have maybe a mental block or is still a bit gun shy from last year's crash, which to be honest, was pretty bad. He might be in his last season or two. I hope not because he can still do quite a bit of winning if he gets his head right.awp26-03-2025
- Do you need a tissue since I seem to have offended you with my comment?frieders326-03-2025
- You mean Liege or Amstel or Flech doesn't play to his abilities ? That's a cop out !frieders326-03-2025
- He beat a field of second rate sprinters....yawn!frieders326-03-2025
- He didn't beat any top class sprinters in this race so slow the roll!frieders326-03-2025
- I think, sometimes, women's races are more interesting because of their unpredictability due to their silly mistakes. The most recent ones seem to always involve Demi Vollering against SD Worx. 11% is way too discriminative. Is there no guardrail in EU laws that prevent this sort of discrimination?
KerisVroom26-03-2025 - Good for him but not exactly the most competitive field, though better than what Froome would try ;-) Let’s wait and see if he can keep things up over time.Mistermaumau25-03-2025
- Huh? So when the men’s is boring and the women’s isn’t should they transfer money or how do you suggest to do things. Last I heard, it’s a bunch of mostly ageing chubby men who set the criteria for women’s races (and in most sports it’s still rather like how religions are run). Don’t think the girls are particularly against doing the same races as the men. Anyway, there’s a huge unjustified gap between 11% of and a difference of 11%. Doubt this happens at the Olympics.Mistermaumau25-03-2025
- C’mon, nobody has ever spoken of Ganna in the same breath as those two until a few months ago and he showed how close a thing it can be when he’s on form, nobody can know in advance what form Remco will have, his Olympic form would cause even Tadej problems, and Wout, well, we’ll just have to wait and see but you can’t really write him off in advance.Mistermaumau25-03-2025