Tadej Pogacar enters stage 8 of the Giro d'Italia with almost 3 minutes over his closest competitors Daniel Martínez and Geraint Thomas. However only on this day will we have the first day in the high mountains; and we preview a day where the Slovenian may put in a deadly blow to his oponents.
Stage 8 sees the riders finally return to the mountains. It's a very hard day too with climbing from start to finish which features 3600 meters of ascent. Those who have raced the Giro d'Abruzzo will have fresh memory of this ascent; but it is also one that is frequently used in Tirreno-Adriatico. It will be the highlight of the day in the Apennines.
Early in the day we have a slight ascent, and if the breakaway isn't formed in there then it can in the Forca Capristello. The 16-kilometer climb features some relatively steep sections, it is difficult and a seriou attack here from a strong group will be very hard to control. It serves as an ideal launchpad for a strong breakawaty to go up the road.
Such breakaway would then be able to keep it's gap relatively well as the day continues to go through gentle climbs until the final one. This will include the Croce Abbio, the penultimate climb of the day, which is 8.1 kilometers at 4.1% and summits with around 40 kilometers to go. The way into Prati di Tivo is fully downhill from there onwards.
The brutal summit finish at Prati di Tivo is more commonly known to headline the Tirreno-Adriatico route, but this year it'll have a pink jersey to award at it's summit. After a day in the mountains, the 14.6-kilometer ascents that averages 7% will create differences with no doubt. It is a consistent climb, but one where serious gaps can be opened.
The Weather
Regular weather forecast, with some northeastern wind. This shouldn't affect the outcome of the day much, early in the day crosswinds and covered roads will be ridden; whilst in the final climb the riders actually find a tailwind for a big part of it.
The Favourites
Tadej Pogacar - No point in arguing if he will be above the competition or not. He will. Baring disaster, the pink jersey will surely increase his lead at Prati di Tivo and with the tailwind in the climb it absolutely favours an attack. Will UAE work for the stage win? I wouldn't think so, but you never know what tactics they will deploy; or even if just the toughness of the stage will make it difficult for the breakaway riders to resist the advances of the peloton.
GC fight - This is where the main story of the day will build, as we have an exciting Giro in the battle for the podium. Still in the first week we have a Geraint Thomas who will likely be on the defense after a modest time-trial, and Thymen Arensman will likely support him on the climb. Daniel Martínez (second), Luke Plapp (fifth) and Cian Uijtdebroeks (self-admission) are riders who will most likely be conservative due to their current position in the race.
But today's time-trial has created serious differences. Antonio Tiberi clearly on great form will be likely looking to avenge his Oropa disaster and climber further than an eighth spot in the GC. Einer Rubio, Juan Pedro López and a few riders who are now over 5 minutes away from the pink jersey (who may also feature in a breakaway) will certainly also want to take back time after the TT.
I wouldn't attribute any particular role to Ben O'Connor, Alexey Lutsenko, Filippo Zana and Lorenzo Fortunato but they will definitely be part of the battle as well.
Breakaway chances - They are reasonably high. On stage 6 UAE worked quite a bit to keep the breakaway under control early on, but then completely let off the steam late in the day. They did not mind giving the jersey away... I think they would think the same here but honestly gaps may already be too big for that. There is a lot of climbing early in the day, and with two stage wins in the pocket and a large lead Pogacar has no reason to put the team throughout a lot work to control the breakaway.
At this point of the race, although they are not huge, we've got riders already far enough down the GC that they will have freedom whilst having great climbing legs. Honestly, UAE won't be concerned with any rider who can realistically get in the breakaway. This opens up the possibility for a scenario like stage 5 of the Tour de France last year where several big GC contenders got in the breakaway - which is also possible here as no team will want to control the race early in the day alongside UAE. Watch out for riders such as Decathlon duo Alex Baudin and Aurélien Paret-Peintre, Michael Storer, Mauri Vansevenant, Esteban Chaves... Others could be there, depends on their plan for the day.
Other quality climbers are expected to try and contest for the stage and they can surely put on a good performance to fight for the win. Eye Nairo Quintana, Giulio Pellizzari, Damiano Caruso, Attila Valter, Andrea Vendrame, Valentin Paret-Peintre, Alessandro De Marchi, Rainer Kepplinger and Lilian Calmejane.
Prediction Giro d'italia 2024 stage 8:
*** Tadej Pogacar
** Alex Baudin, Lilian Calmejane, Mauri Vansevenant, Giulio Pellizzari
* Antonio Tiberi, Geraint Thomas, Daniel Martínez, Juan Pedro López, Aurélien Paret-Peintre, Michael Storer, Damiano Caruso, Attila Valter, Alessandro De Marchi
Pick: Alex Baudin
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