The first week of the Giro d'Italia is now behind us. Day 10 of the race will see the race return to the mountains. We preview a day that features a summit finish in Cusano Mutri and Tadej Pogacar could win the third out of three summit finishes.
Stage 10 opens up the second week and presents a rather unknown summit finish. A short day on the bike only with 141 kilometers, but it ends at Cusano Mutri, a climb that could deliver more spectacle and differences for the overall classification. The first 45 kilometers of the stage are pan-flat, not ideal for a strong breakaway to go up the road; although the day could well end up tilting towards one.
On the way to the finish the riders find the difficult Camposauro which is 6.1 kilometers long at 7.8%. It still comes 60 kilometers away from the finish, don't expect any serious action here. A few more smaller climbs will be ridden into the final ascent. None on this day are steep, but the constant up-and-down can lead to an interesting outcome in the finale.
Cusano Mutri is the star of the day, the climb is 17.9 kilometers at 5.6%. But they are not constant, this average doesn't represent the real difficulty of the climb. It's maximum gradient of 14% is in it's first kilometers, we've got 6 kilometers at 6% close to the start. Don't expect attacks here however, as there is a small downhill section entering the second half of the climb.
The moves will come in the final 6 kilometers which will average a rather constant 7%. Here yes, differences can be made, slipstreaming won't matter too much and the riders find a road where the overall classification can suffer changes.
The Weather
A small southern breeze. If anything, it will actually help the breakaway both early and late in the race. In the final climb mostly tailwind and crosswind which is also beneficial for the attacks, but it depends a lot on how the riders feel.
The Favourites
Tadej Pogacar - So, what's UAE's plan this time around? In my opinion, conservative. Stage 8 Pogacar said the plan was to let the breakaway go but it was the team that decided to race for the stage win. Now with three stage wins including a summit finish in pink, Pogacar has already won everything he needed except for the overall classification. He did not try to create differences so here that will likely be the same, he will just try to race conservatively.
UAE have no reason to chase, burn through their team or have Pogacar try to increase his lead. If anyone is to chase the breakaway it has to be the team of a rival but... They will certainly not win the stage either way since Pogacar is above the rest. You could argue other teams could start fighting for the Top10 places with moves in the front of the peloton but this is a short stage with a flat start, and honestly plenty riders will have intentions to go up the road since it is likely one for the breakaway. Hence, yes, I do believe this will fall to the breakaway.
GC Fight - Still this does not mean there won't be a battle for the GC. Prati di Tivo's results were surprising in terms of there being small gaps. Here could be the same, but honestly the climb does allow for meaningful differences - which haven't happened outside the time-trial for these riders. The first day after a rest day usually is not one where riders usually attack however.
Daniel Martínez and Geraint Thomas can just sit and follow wheels, they are happy with how the race is so far for them. Ben O'Connor honestly also feels like he's in his place, Cian Uijtdebroeks in fifth could also be said the same. Antonio Tiberi, sixth, could be the main offensive figure on the day as he can certainly take time on Uijtdebroeks at least in normal conditions. Einer Rubio could also be a dangerous rider on home roads whilst INEOS could potentially use Thymen Arensman for a GC strategy, although this is unlikely as the Dutchman has said that he is heavily covered.
So a breakaway should succeed, but the flat start makes it hard to form a group with many climbers. Filippo Zana, Romain Bardet, Georg Steinhauser, Esteban Chaves and Prati di Tivo's victim Juan Pedro López could try and use this stage to move up the GC.
However I would eye more other riders who've shown good form or have been saving themselves on a few days. Valentin Paret-Peintre certainly looked good in the mountains recently, he and Aurélien Paret-Peintre stand good chances of keeping u Decathlon's great season.
Lilian Calmejane, Giulio Pellizzari, Mauri Vansevenant, Luke Plapp, Nicola Conci, Damiano Caruso, Julian Alaphilippe, Alessandro Verre, Magnus Sheffield, Alessandro De Marchi, Andrea Vendrame and Attila Valter are also riders to consider on such a day. Much depends on the feeling of the day, several of these men have experienced bad days already in these 9 days of racing.
Prediction Giro d'italia 2024 stage 10:
*** Valentin Paret-Peintre, Romain Bardet
** Tadej Pogacar, Giulio Pellizzari, Aurélien Paret-Peintre
* Daniel Martínez, Geraint Thomas, Antonio Tiberi, Ben O'Connor, Georg Steinhauser, Lilian Calmejane, Alessandro Verre, Magnus Sheffield
Pick: Valentin Paret-Peintre
Regione Piemonte will host the Grande Partenza of the Giro d'Italia 2024! Opening stage on 4 May with start in Venaria Reale. La Regione Piemonte ospiterà la Grande Partenza 2024! Si parte il 4 maggio da Venaria Reale. 👇Thread 👇 #Giroditalia #GrandePartenza @regionepiemonte
