Stage 11: Foiano di val Fortore - Francavilla al Mare, 203 kilometers
The reason why this is dangerous is that in the second week of the race, less sprinter teams will commit to work as they know their place, fatigue sets in and some teams are missing riders. The peloton will descend from 650 meters in altitude to sea level and then face almost completely flat roads all the way to the finish, which means high speeds, where cutting the gap of a strong group is difficult.
However, we can assume the biggest chances on the day will always lie in a bunch sprint in Francavilla al Mare. One that won't be technical either. The final corners come with over 2 kilometers to the finish and from there on it's a fully straightforward dash to the line right by the coast. The riders can be exposed to the wind however, it can be a tactical one.
The Weather
Map Giro d'Italia 2024 stage 11
Some eastern wind, and exposed as the riders finish the stage right by the coast. Early in the day it shouldn't affect much the race, but in the coast it will come as a tailwind throughout most of the day, favouring the breakaway riders. However the riders take a sharp turn right by the finale, and find a headwind sprint.
The Favourites
Jonathan Milan - The leader of the points classification hasn't been spending too much energy in the intermediate sprints throughout the race and he can climb well; he shouldn't be too fatigued. Lidl-Trek have not lost men and his leadout continues to be in perfect form. He could be delivered to the sprint in perfect position, but I argue the headwind sprint isn't the best for such a tall rider.
Tim Merlier - For Merlier the same could be argued, but the Belgian is great with positioning choices and he could benefit from coming from the wheels in such a sprint - as do others. He won the first bunch sprint on flat roads and he will have a suiting finale to his abilities, if he has recovered from his crash in the time-trial.
We've got two strong outsiders who are clear contenders for the win as well which are
Kaden Groves and
Phil Bauhaus. Neither has a leadout that has been functioning perfectly, but in this arrival that will not be as important as normal - also as Olav Kooij proved in Napoli. Groves specially is still dreaming of the points classification and is chasing all possible points; whilst the German has been looking strong and also consistent in the flat finales.
We've got DSM's
Fabio Jakobsen, who has so far had a very bad race but has the opportunity here to turn it around with a stage that is as flat as he could hope for. If he can't do it, then
Tobias Lund Andresen will take the opportunity with certainty.
Caleb Ewan is also very dangerous in a headwind sprint and he has shown on one occasion to have the speed to fight for a victory here.
We could have the likes of Alberto Dainese, Juan Sebastián Molano and Fernando Gaviria fight for the win as well under the perfect circumstances; they do have the speed but they haven't exactly had the best of races so far. In the sprint I also expect Davide Ballerini, Danny van Poppel, Stanislaw Aniolkowski, Andrea Vendrame, Madis Mihkels, Giovanni Lonardi and Enrico Zanoncello.
Prediction Giro d'italia 2024 stage 11:
*** Jonathan Milan, Tim Merlier
** Phil Bauhaus, Kaden Groves, Caleb Ewan
* Danny van Poppel, Davide Ballerini, Fabio Jakobsen, Tobias Lund Andresen, Alberto Dainese, Juan Sebastián Molano
Pick: Jonathan Milan
