Preview. The final race of the 2023 European Championships. On the 24th of September the riders will take on the climax of the week in the men's Elite Road Race. Who will take on the European stars which have been on the shoulders of Fabio Jakobsen this year?
The race will be mostly pan-flat. An interesting profile as on paper it almost looks to be a race for the sprinters, if only it weren't for the ascents of the Col du Vam. 400 meters at 10% in the cobblestones the VAM-berg will be a very tough effort and it's summit is already inside the final kilometers. There will be six laps of the final circuit.
The race starts in Assen and the first 110 kilometers will be pan-flat. The riders then enter the final circuit, most of it is also pan-flat, it's a race for the powerhouse riders, because with the exception of the two sharp pinches, there is no place to attack the race hard. The six laps will see a circuit around the Col de VAM, each 13.5 kilometers in distance.
The first ascent of the Col du VAM summits with 800 meters to go, followed by a short and quite steep descent, and then a pinch to the line, an uphill sprint where the gradients go over 10% for the final 300 meters.
The Weather
The wind will blow hard from the south. The race shall be harder and likely more tactical because of it, echelons are definitely possible in some spots. Nothing can be excluded, it will be a very tense race and splits can happen right from the get go, whilst in the final circuit there direction changes are constant and it should not impact the race as the climbs are very inconsistent and themselves have direction changes.
The Favourites
Belgium - The Belgians love the windy conditions and have an extremely strong team here. They have the numbers, but benefit from using them to cover attacks and not be the ones kicking things off. Wout van Aert and Arnaud De Lie both benefit from a sprint finish, but would want different levels of roughness throughout the race. The team has enough riders to cover attacks throughout the whole race and take initiative themselves if they want however. Jasper de Buyst and Edward Theuns are two more outsider sprint options, whilst Yves Lampaert, Jasper Stuyven and Florian Vermeersch can also do quite well in a race like this.
Denmark - The Danes have Mads Pedersen as their main weapon, however the leader is not as fresh as was the case a month ago. His second place at the GP d'Isbergues will be of a little motivation, on his best level he can certainly climb and thrive with the strong winds, as well as sprint, but it's unsure which Mads we'll have. Andreas Kron and Mikkel Bjerg will be options for an aggressive race whilst Casper Pedersen and Tobias Lund Andresen can be saved as secondary sprint options if it comes to that.
Italy - The Italians are a very strong team and one that won't rely in a sprint. They have talent, I'm not saying otherwise, but in a sprint it's unlikely that Matteo Trentin or Luca Mozzato can contest with other riders above. Even a peak form Elia Viviani at this point would likely struggle - although we've seen him well only once this season. The tactics will be of attacking, with Trentin and most importantly Filippo Ganna who let go the time-trial to focus on this day. The winds and powerhouse-suited course will be a very interesting test for him, and in Milano-Sanremo he's shown how he can ride the hilly one-day races. Matteo Sobrero and Mattia Cattaneo can also be offensive weapons, a good mix of climbing ability and rouleur skills.
France - The French can really do something special here, I don't doubt. It is a team fully composed of classics riders. Axel Zingle and Anthony Turgis will be outsiders, on their best day definitely capable of fighting for victory. They will hope the main teams battle each other and ignore a bit the sprinting capacity of it's leaders. Christophe Laporte and Arnaud Démare both come in with good form and capacity to take a win, if it comes down to a sprint of course. Although it is not easy, they both know how to perform in a one-day race very well.
If there is enough alliance a sprint can take place in the fight for the win. The wind won't make it easy, but the circuit is mostly pan-flat. The Netherlands have big reasons to wish for this, the leadership of the team fully relies on fast men, with Olav Kooij a very dangerous rider, whilst Mike Teunissen and Cees Bol are outsiders. Ethan Vernon, Soren Waerenskjold, Ivan García Cortina and Rui Oliveira are interesting figures to take into consideration, who could fly under the radar and then kick in a strong result at the finish line.
As for other riders who can fight for a top result but will mostly depend on a very selective race on the climbs, we could see the likes of Rasmus Tiller and Michal Kwiatkowski as victory contenders. Others such as Toms Skujins, John Degenkolb and Felix Engelhardt are also riders to take into consideration.
Prediction European Championships men's elite road race 2023:
*** Wout van Aert, Mads Pedersen
** Filippo Ganna, Arnaud De Lie, Christophe Laporte
* Olav Kooij, Matteo Trentin, Rasmus Tiller, Arnaud Démare, Jasper de Buyst, Jasper Stuyven, Soren Waerenskjold
Pick: Wout van Aert
Preview written by Rúben Silva.
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