The initial weekend of the Giro d'Italia is over. Two days packed with climbs have seen Tadej Pogacar take control of the race as expected. Now, the sprinters get the opportunity to shine. We preview the first day that should end in a bunch sprint - although it is not a simple one.
Stage 3 is the first day that can be properly called to be one for the sprinters, however far from a simple one. Most of the day is flat, but the run-up to Fossano will not be easy. Most of the day will be a calm stroll through Italy's Po Valley, heading southwest. A transition day and the first that will suit the contenders for the points classification.
Nothing much to analyze sincerely, all of the focus will be in the final kilometers towards Fossano. We've got a climbing and a technical aspect to the finale. A small hilltop will be present in the final kilometers. Summiting with 1.5 kilometers to go, the riders will tackle a 1.8-kilometer ascent at 4.2% which can take out a few riders from contention.
The climb will feature a few switchbacks, it can be a launchpad for late attacks; but also to drop or put some sprinters on the limit. There will then be 2.5 kilometers to the finish where organization is possible, attacks are possible... But a bunch sprint remains likely. The sprint will not be technical and will be pan-flat.
The Weather
The weather will not be as nice as it's been so far. A growing northwestern breeze throughout the afternoon, growing relatively strong towards the finish time. This shouldn't be strong enough to create echelons but it certainly will be a cause for concern among the GC contenders. The finale will not be exposed to wind, here it will not be important.
The Favourites
Jonathan Milan - The Lidl-Trek rider is someone who I have a lot of confidence in. A brilliant sprinter who struggled with positioning; this year that has been improved quite a lot due to a strong and experienced leadout. With Consonni, Theuns and Stuyven ahead of him he could enter the sprint in pole position. He's won an arrival like this at Tirreno-Adriatico and I wouldn't be surprised to see it again.
Tim Merlier - Usually, Merlier wins the first bunch sprint of the races he takes part in. Besides that, he has trained in the mountains ahead of the Giro; so the slight ascent shouldn't be too difficult for him. We could see the best Merlier take the win, he has the support of a Luke Lamperti who should also like this finale.
Olav Kooij - But the other main favourite, in my opinion, also has a very strong leadout with Christophe Laporte as the big figure... Visma can certainly take their first win here if Kooij finds his best legs. However, that may not happen if he suffers from today's crash at the race.
This is such a star-studded sprinter field however... What the race lacks in top climbers it certainly compensates with fast men. Realistically, around 10 riders can fight for the stage win or podium, and we have at least half a dozen other proven winners ready to challenge the riders above. In first place we've got Kaden Groves who won several sprints and the points classification at last year's Vuelta a España; We've got Caleb Ewan who certainly struggles with consistency, but looked sharp over these days searching points for the points classification. DSM have Fabio Jakobsen, but also Tobias Lund Andresen - the duo dominated the Tour of Turkey's sprints and have good form.
We have got some riders who will enjoy the climbing before the final sprint, who still pack a very strong punch such as Biniam Girmay, Max Kanter, Danny van Poppel and Laurence Pithie. In the event of a regular sprint we could consider very fast men such as Phil Bauhaus and Juan Sebastián Molano; But also Alberto Dainese, Fernando Gaviria and Ethan Vernon.
Then we could also predict a possible very strong pace up the ascent, and a reduced sprint - or one that would see some of the pure sprinters have no legs. INEOS could try to take advantage of it with either Filippo Ganna or Jhonatan Narváez; whilst we could also expect some more to try and be part of this sprint such as Marius Mayrhofer, Andrea Vendrame, Quinten Hermans and points classification leader Filippo Fiorelli.
Prediction Giro d'italia 2024 stage 3:
*** Jonathan Milan, Tim Merlier, Olav Kooij
** Kaden Groves, Laurence Pithie
* Caleb Ewan, Tobias Lund Andresen, Fabio Jakobsen, Biniam Girmay, Phil Bauhaus, Juan Sebastian Molano, Danny van Poppel, Max Kanter, Quinten Hermans
Pick: Jonathan Milan
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