The opening day of the Giro d'Italia was a spectacular one. Jhonatan Narváez took a very impressive win in Torino and put on the pink jersey; but will have a very big challenge on stage 2 as the peloton ride into the Santuario di Oropa summit finish. We preview the stage ahead.
Stage 2 is the first day in the mountains and it will not be easy by any means. 150 kilometers on the menu, the first half flat, the second with five ascents. Two uncategorized and two categorized - 5.7Km at 5.1% and 3.2Km at 6.5%, which will be a warm-up for the first summit finish of the race. This will be the return to a climb made famous by the likes of Marco Pantani and Tom Dumoulin in the past.
This will be at the Santuario di Oropa. Last used in 2017 with Tom Dumoulin's epic win, it'll be a climb well known in the peloton. It's 11.8 kilometers at 6.1%, but the first third is considerably less steep. We'll see gradients close to 10% for several kilometers towards the scenic finish, and perhaps the first meaningful gaps of the race.
This early in the race and at the end of a short and not overly hard stage, it should be a very explosive climb where speeds will be very high. Differences can be made in it's toughest sections a few kilometers from the finish; whilst the final meters will be on a beautiful cobbled road up to the sanctuary.
The Weather
A slight southern breeze throughout the day. It shouldn't impact the outcome; it could come as a crosswind early in the day then a tailwind... A possible slight tailwind in the final climb but I doubt it'll be felt there.
The Favourites
Tadej Pogacar - The man to beat, again. Yes, I said the same about today but it is a vastly different profile. UAE had an unexpected lack of manpower towards the end, but he would've still made the difference to if the climb was longer. He already did drop every other climber in the race on this effort, so he's already proven himself. I expect a stage win and the pink jersey already here - even if UAE was to let the breakaway go, INEOS will certainly control it in some way.
Will the pink jersey change hands? - Yes, certainly. Jhonatan Narváez is in great form, and with Thymen Arensman losing time I think INEOS will allow the Ecuadorian to do his own effort and try and finish high. I do think he can defend himself, but with someone like Pogacar only seconds away there's no chance. I think the same of Max Schachmann, and even Alex Baudin of Decathlon can fight for a Top10 no doubt.
I don't expect anyone else to attack before UAE make their move. They will want to not race as aggressively early on as today; but instead use the common sense strategy of saving Majka, Novak and likely Grossschartner at the very least just for the final climb. They will do a high pace and Pogacar will surely be the first to attack. Everyone else then has their own battle, surely, and then see where they fall. It is still only stage 2, most riders will want to race conservatively too and not take too many risks.
The likes of Cian Uijtdebroeks and Geraint Thomas certainly will want that exactly, both prefer the long mountain stages. The Dutchman wants to not take risks and think of later in the race, whilst Thomas wants the differences to be made in the time-trials.
But other riders will not want the same, and could in fact try and make the difference taking advantage of their current good form. It was not too clear who from the other climbers may be able to make the difference as well today. I would argue Bahrain with Antonio Tiberi and Damiano Caruso want to do something. In the equation, we must have Alexey Lutsenko, Juan Pedro López, Einer Rubio, Ben O'Connor, Jan Hirt, Eddie Dunbar, Attila Valter... I would believe Mauri Vansevenant can be a positive surprise; Giulio Pellizzari also has the potential to do something very good... Daniel Martínez is a wildcard, and it would be interesting to see if Florian Lipowitz had a bad day but will be able to climb like he did at the Tour de Romandie once again.
Prediction Giro d'italia 2024 stage 2:
*** Tadej Pogacar
** Antonio Tiberi, Ben O'Connor, Geraint Thomas
* Daniel Martínez, Cian Uijtdebroeks, Damiano Caruso, Alexey Lutsenko, Juan Pedro López
Pick: Tadej Pogacar
Regione Piemonte will host the Grande Partenza of the Giro d'Italia 2024! Opening stage on 4 May with start in Venaria Reale. La Regione Piemonte ospiterà la Grande Partenza 2024! Si parte il 4 maggio da Venaria Reale. 👇Thread 👇 #Giroditalia #GrandePartenza @regionepiemonte
