“Only if Pogacar crashes out” – De Gendt praises Evenepoel but doesn’t believe he will win the Tour de France

With just five days until the Grand Départ in Lille, Remco Evenepoel is preparing to line up at the Tour de France for only the second time in his career. But already, expectations are sky high.

The Belgian made an impressive debut in 2024, winning a stage, taking home the white jersey, and finishing third overall behind Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar. Now, heading into the 2025 edition, he carries the weight of a nation and the hopes of a team that believes it finally has a rider capable of toppling cycling’s established Grand Tour giants.

But is belief alone enough?

Evenepoel’s challenge is framed clearly by one of Belgium’s most seasoned professionals. Speaking to Cycling News, Thomas De Gendt was blunt about the scale of the task ahead.

“To be honest, when Tadej Pogacar is this strong coming into the Tour de France, and I wouldn't want to wish this on anybody, but the only way that Remco Evenepoel can have a really good chance of winning is if Pogačar crashes out,” De Gendt said. “Otherwise it's going to be very, very difficult for Remco – or anybody else, for that matter – to be even close.”

That sentiment might sound harsh, but it’s rooted in the simple reality of Pogacar’s form. The Slovenian enters the Tour fresh from dominating the Dauphine and winning countless races in the spring, whilst Evenepoel is yet to reach his peak form yet.

“The interesting thing of course is that in Remco's mind, probably not even Pogacar is out of reach,” De Gendt continued. “But that's because if you're in his position and you assume Pogačar is out of your league, then you've already lost before you start. The same goes for Vingegaard: he will not be thinking about second place, only about winning.”

“Remco has, and people mustn't take this in a negative sense, a big ego. By which I don't mean anything bad, more that he likes to prove himself,” De Gendt said. “Just look at when he had an off-day on the Tourmalet in the 2023 Vuelta a España when even I passed him on the climbs and he was not looking at all well. Yet 24 hours later, Remco was flying again.”

The deeper point De Gendt makes is that Evenepoel is wired differently. His response to failure is not retreat but retaliation. He doesn’t just want to win, he wants to become the very best in the sport.

“Those kinds of turnarounds aren't to prove something to the public... it's almost like he wants to prove his worth not only to himself but to his team, too: that he's always up there with the best riders, that he's worth riding for and worth their investment.”

Evenepoel's recent showing at the Critérium du Dauphiné was something of a mixed bag. He won the time trial, beating Pogacar by almost 45 seconds over 13 kilometres, but ultimately finished fourth overall, once again losing significant time in the mountains.

That win in the time trial has given Evenepoel hope for the first week of the Tour, which features a similar TT. De Gendt said: “I believe I know Remco well enough to know that he thinks that he can beat Pogačar in the first week time trial. After all, Remco took almost 45 seconds on him in 13 kilometres in the Dauphiné TT. And if he wins that first week TT and then doesn't lose so much time in the mountains, Remco will be thinking he can maybe beat Pogačar on GC.”

But the mountain stages remain the decisive battleground, and that's where the questions about Remco’s Tour-winning credentials linger. Compared to the best climbers in the world, Evenepoel still seems vulnerable, especially on long, high-altitude days.

De Gendt acknowledges that, “Remco's also realistic, though, and he'll know it's a hard task. But that attitude is part of a champion's mentality.”

The one thing Evenepoel might have in his favour is timing. While Pogacar has been on top form all year, Evenepoel’s season has been structured to build through the summer after his crash in December. De Gendt believes the Dauphiné might have been a necessary part of that process.

“Mentally, this week in the Dauphiné will likely have taken a bit of a toll on him,” he said. “But even so, it's not hard to think he will be performing much better in the Tour and maybe can overtake Vingegaard in the standings.”

“Remco can build his form, too, and maybe he needed the Dauphiné to get to a higher level to where he needs to be to win the Tour. The same goes for Vingegaard. Of course, it will be difficult, but there's still some way to go to the hardest stages of the Tour, and a lot of things can happen.”