ANALYSIS: What makes Tadej Pogacar's Paris-Roubaix debut so special?
Cycling
And so it’s official. After weeks of speculation, UAE Team Emirates confirmed earlier this week that Tadej Pogaxar will make his Paris-Roubaix debut in 2025, lining up at the Queen of the Classics in the world champion's rainbow jersey. He will also race the Tour of Flanders the weekend prior. For cycling fans, we’re witnessing something unprecedented: a reigning triple crown holder taking on the most brutal race in professional cycling.
"I saw the sparkle in his eyes," UAE DS Aart Vierhouten said, reflecting on the moment Pogačar made the call to ride Paris-Roubaix. "That was when I thought: ‘Yes, he really wants this.’" According to the team, the decision was not forced, but internally motivated. “He said: 'Yes, I'm going to ride it.’”
The question is simple. Can Tadej Pogacar actually win Paris-Roubaix? The answer, as with most things in cycling, lies somewhere between historical precedent, physical capability, and an understanding of risk and timing.
Let’s dive into some of the stats, and find out why this challenge may be Tadej Pogacar’s most difficult yet.
The numbers don’t lie
Before we look ahead, it’s worth looking back. According to Jonas Creteur, very few Tour de France winners, past or present, have risked their reputation (and body) on the cobbles of Roubaix.
- Last ex-Tour winner to start Paris-Roubaix: Bradley Wiggins, 2015. He finished 18th in what was his final race with Team Sky.
- Last reigning Tour de France winner to start Paris-Roubaix: Greg LeMond, 1991.
- Last ex-Tour winner to win Paris-Roubaix: Bernard Hinault, 1981. He also won the Tour that same year.
- Last reigning Tour de France winner to win Roubaix: Eddy Merckx, 1973.
In other words, no rider has won Paris-Roubaix after becoming Tour champion for over 50 years. So, even to simply start the race as Tour winner is exceedingly rare.
That’s what makes Pogacar’s appearance so significant. He’s not just a Grand Tour winner dabbling in the Classics. He’s entering as the most dominant rider of his generation, in the rainbow jersey, with three of the Monuments already to his name.
And he’s doing so knowing full well what’s at stake.
The monument mission
Paris-Roubaix will be the third stop in a staggering 2025 campaign where Pogacar is scheduled to race all five Monuments. It’s a feat accomplished by very few riders in recent years, with the increasingly packed World Tour schedule
- Magnus Sheffield did it in 2023
- Matej Mohorič did it in 2022
Now, Pogacar will attempt the same, though with far loftier ambitions. He’s there to win.
This isn’t just about participation. Pogacar is on a mission to win them all.
He already holds victories in:
- Tour of Flanders (2023)
- Liège-Bastogne-Liège (2021,2024)
- Il Lombardia (2021, 2022, 2023,2024)
That leaves just Milano-Sanremo, where he finished third in 2023 and 2025, and Paris-Roubaix, which he’s never raced. We’re not going to dive into Sanremo in this article, as we’re sure Pogacar is sick of being defeated by that race by now.
If Pogacar were to win Roubaix and Sanremo in the next few years, he would become only the fourth rider in history to win all five Monuments, joining Rik Van Looy, Eddy Merckx, and Roger De Vlaeminck.
That alone would cement his place in the pantheon of cycling’s all-time greats. But the path to Roubaix victory is strewn with cobblestones, crashes, chaos, and a certain Mathieu van der Poel.
This is no ordinary race.
Why is Roubaix so risky?
Unlike most races, Paris-Roubaix is not defined by watts. It is defined by control, luck, positioning, and risk management. The route is brutal: over 50 kilometres of pavé, including the infamous Trouée d’Arenberg, Mons-en-Pévèle, and Carrefour de l’Arbre.
Punctures and crashes decide races. Favourites are often unseated not because they’re not strong enough, but because they’re in the wrong place at the wrong time, think back to Wout van Aert in 2023. Team support is essential. Even the best rider in the world is useless if he has a mechanical in the forest and no help nearby.
This is why so few Tour winners touch Roubaix. The race’s high injury potential poses a significant risk to a Grand Tour rider’s season, especially just mere months before the summer season. One crash can derail everything. Just ask Geraint Thomas, who rode Roubaix in 2018 and crashed out. He went on to win the Tour that year, but never returned to Roubaix. Pogacar, too, is aware of the risks. He suffered a fractured wrist in April 2023 at Liège, which ruined his preparation for that year’s Tour.
UAE Team Emirates are taking every precaution. has already done several reconnaissance rides especially over the Arenberg Forest, but he has not raced a cobbled race in two years.
Can he win it?
Physically? Yes.
Pogacar has shown a remarkable ability to thrive on cobbles. In the 2022 Tour de France, he rode superbly on the Roubaix-inspired stage 5 to Arenberg, and in the 2023 Tour of Flanders, he dropped both Van Aert and Van der Poel to win solo. His explosive power on short climbs, endurance, and bike-handling make him uniquely suited to all terrain.
But Paris-Roubaix isn’t just about ability. It’s about riding perfectly, mechanically, tactically, and physically, for six hours on some of the most treacherous roads in Europe. That’s where experience comes in.
Roubaix is often won by riders who’ve failed there before. Dylan van Baarle and Sonny Colbrelli had multiple attempts before their victories. Even legends like Tom Boonen and Fabian Cancellara built years of Roubaix-specific conditioning before winning.
Pogacar won Flanders on his second attempt. But Roubaix is not Flanders. He may have the legs to follow an attack on Carrefour, but he could just as easily puncture, crash, or simply find himself behind the wrong split.
Even his rivals, Mathieu van der Poel and Jasper Philipsen, will be more experienced on the pavé, having finished first and second in both 2023 and 2024 editions. That partnership, with Alpecin–Deceuninck's support, has already proven tactically devastating.
Now I will ask a strange question…is Paris-Roubaix hard enough? Perhaps I should be more specific, does Paris-Roubaix have the climbs needed for him to drop Van der Poel?
History on the line
What makes Pogačar’s Roubaix entry so monumental is not just the risk, but the historical rarity of what he’s attempting.
A reigning Tour de France champion racing Paris-Roubaix is almost unheard of in modern times. Bradley Wiggins did it in 2015, two years after winning the Tour, but he was transitioning out of GC racing. Greg LeMond tried it in 1991, but didn’t win. And the last time a Tour winner triumphed at Roubaix was Bernard Hinault in 1981.
Even the great Eddy Merckx, who won both in 1973, only did so once.
Pogacar could change that narrative entirely. If he wins Paris-Roubaix, he won’t just be the first Tour champ to do so in over 40 years, he’ll be one step closer to completely his monuments collection.
His presence also raises the level of the event. There is already talk that the 2025 edition could be the most-watched Roubaix in years, drawing in fans from Grand Tour and Classics circles alike.
As Vierhouten put it: "We are preparing optimally. There is still work to be done, but this is a unique challenge. This is history in the making."
What next?
Before Roubaix, Pogacar will race the Tour of Flanders, where he must take on the defending champion, Mathieu van der Poel. It will give fans and analysts alike a final chance to assess his form, handling, and recovery ahead of the biggest test.
Van der Poel is 1-0 up against Pogacar after Sanremo, but Pogacar beat him on the cobbles two years ago. Who will come out on top this time?
A win at Flanders would mark his second Ronde and boost his confidence. But even a loss won't take the shine off Roubaix. If anything, it will reinforce how ambitious his campaign is.
He is also expected to return to Liège–Bastogne–Liège, where he has won before. And by October, he will likely line up to defend his Il Lombardia title, seeking a fifth consecutive win.
All of this would mean that by the end of 2025, Pogacar will have raced all five Monuments, the World Championships, and the Tour de France (and maybe even the Vuelta a Espana), within the same calendar year. That level of consistency, versatility and ambition has not been seen in the sport for decades, if ever. Tadej Pogacar’s decision to race Paris-Roubaix is not just a bold move, it’s a historic one. By doing so, he places himself in a lineage that includes Merckx and Hinault, riders who dared to master every form of racing.
Roubaix is a gamble. It always is. Crashes, punctures, and chaos could ruin everything. But for a rider who already has three Monuments, the Tour, and the World title, greatness lies not in defending what he has, but in chasing what few believe possible. Whether he triumphs or falls short, his presence on the Roubaix start line will already be a victory for the sport. It’s a signal that cycling’s biggest stars are not afraid to test themselves on its most brutal stage.
And if he wins? We may just be witnessing the most complete rider in cycling history.
The simple fact that we have a champion like Tadej looking to break down the barrier of what's been the cycling norm for the last 35-40 years is something that should be applauded
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- And he probably wasn’t even at the limit ;-) Have to wonder how much Mads could catch up if he’d tune his physique to be as sharp as MVDPs’Mistermaumau31-03-2025
- Respect for giving Van Eetvelt credit there.Mistermaumau31-03-2025
- He’s already a star for me for HAVING complained about it, the recent trend having been, let them then try to take advantage by making them sign NDAs ;-)Mistermaumau31-03-2025
- Agreed, but if it was a radio thing then all the riders should have the same story and it would be easy to call anyone out. Kind of surprised this isn’t cleared up half officially afterwards, just like the Alaphilippe divorce, seems like once something spreads on the net it kind of gets accepted that everyone wants to have their own truth so no-one bothers to contest anything that’s verifiable anymore, we all just move on.Mistermaumau31-03-2025
- maybe. what makes that a LITTLE fishy is that they suddenly hit the gas and started hammering it. even mathieu, who i’ve never heard complain about ANYTHING (other than teenage girls waking him up and being spit on by belgians) was pretty hacked off about the race tactics after the split. i think he was upset for what his teammates had to do, not for the fact he ended up isolated as a result.OCexile31-03-2025
- It seems that in E3 it wasn’t legit to criticise teams that « took advantage » because there was no radio communication about the incident so they couldn’t know to slow down. Only one source so far but should be quite easy to verify.Mistermaumau31-03-2025
- mads SMOKED it at ghent! love that guy. he’s just the best interview ever, always smart and hilarious and with a biting intolerance for stupidity. happy for him. just as a secondary thought, consider that mvdp beat THAT version of mads by a full minute at E3 two days ago. the gap between pog/mvdp and even tho other GREAT riders like mads is kinda staggering to comprehend. this is a time in cycling history that’s certainly worth paying attention to while it lasts.OCexile31-03-2025
- i watched the race. jasper and roodhooft have a legit anger about this. alpecin burned everyone to pull it back. they did the SAME THING after the split in E3, burning all their guys and thus leaving mathieu to fend for himself (which worked out ok because van der poel is van der poel, but still…). yeah, christopher and jasper should be a little pissed this time.OCexile30-03-2025
- Mads, Ganna, MvdP, Pogi were all in MSR, and will all be in both RVV and PR, the problem here is Remco because he doesn't race anything. This year because of injuries, before that, no idea why notvappaxbipmv30-03-2025
- Will it take oil money to get Mads, Remco, Tadej, Ganna and MVDP to line up for the same classic or monument or will Lady Luck help us with this one.Mistermaumau30-03-2025