ANALYSIS: How does Wout van Aert’s slow start to 2025 compare to previous seasons?

Wout van Aert’s 2025 season has not started in the way many of his fans would have hoped. After an injury-hit 2024, this was supposed to be the year in which he returned to his very best, aiming to finally win a second Monument after his last major one-day victory at Milano-Sanremo five years ago in 2020.

However, his performances so far have been underwhelming, leading to questions over whether this slow start is part of a deliberate build-up towards peak form later in the season or whether there is genuine cause for concern.

So, has 2025 really been that bad for the Belgian? Or do his fans need to show some patience? Lets find out.

Van Aert began his 2025 campaign at the Cyclocross World Championships, where he finished second to his long time rival Mathieu van der Poel. While a runner-up finish at a world championship is not a bad result on paper, the manner of his defeat was worrying.

Unlike previous years when the two were neck and neck, separated by the finest of margins, this time Van der Poel was streets ahead. Van Aert never looked in contention for the victory, which was a stark contrast to their last cyclocross world title battle in 2023.

His first road race of the year came at the Clasica Jaen in mid-February. A race of attrition and intensity, it is the kind of event where Van Aert’s endurance and versatility should normally shine. Instead, he struggled and finished in 39th place, a result that raised eyebrows.

After the race, he acknowledged that he was not in his best shape, saying, “I’m certainly not bad, but I felt that I wouldn’t win.” This was not an outright admission of poor form, but it suggested he was far from his top level.

Hoping to improve, Van Aert then turned his attention to the Volta ao Algarve. This was a step in the right direction, but he still was not at his very best. His most notable performance came in the final day’s time trial, where he finished second to his Team Visma | Lease a Bike teammate Jonas Vingegaard.

He also managed to secure third place in the points classification. While this was an improvement on his Clasica Jaen result, it was still far from the commanding performances his fans have come to expect.

Then came Opening Weekend, the much-anticipated start of the Belgian cycling season and the beginning of the spring classics. Traditionally, these races are a key focus for Van Aert, as they give an early indication of his form ahead of the Monuments. However, his performances were again below expectations this past weekend.

He finished 11th at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, a race where he has been a serious contender in the past, and then a disappointing 75th at Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne. Speaking after Omloop, he admitted, “I just wasn’t feeling well in the race.” This was not the superstar Opening Weekend his fans were hoping for, and it added further fuel to the speculation that something was not quite right.

These early performances have led to inevitable questions. After all, 2025 was supposed to be the year in which Van Aert put the struggles of 2024 behind him and returned to the top of the sport, as injuries derailed much of his previous season, and he was forced to miss key races.

This year, he has targeted the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix as his biggest goals once again. However, his slow start has led some to wonder whether he will be in peak condition when those races arrive. But are fans overreacting?

To understand whether this is a cause for concern, it is important to compare Van Aert’s start to 2025 with his starts in previous seasons. Looking back at his past campaigns, a clear pattern emerges.

In 2024, he also started the season slowly, finishing 10th at the Clasica de America and 45th at Clasica Jaen. However, his first win came on stage three of the Volta ao Algarve, which was his fifth race of the year. He also started his classics campaign strongly, finishing third at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and winning Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne.

That was an important indicator of his form and his ability to compete for big victories later in the spring, and his 2025 results at Omloop and Kuurne have been notably worse. But, he still wasn’t winning races left right and centre to start the year.

In 2023, Van Aert had to wait even longer for his first victory of the season, as his first win came on March 24th at the E3 Saxo Classic. Before that, he had no wins at Tirreno-Adriatico and finished third at Milano-Sanremo. Despite this slow start, he went on to have a strong spring classics campaign and remained a key contender throughout the season.

Looking at his 2022 season, the contrast is striking to 2025. That year, which is widely regarded as his best, Van Aert started the season by winning Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, and that victory set the tone for an incredible campaign, which included three stage wins and the green jersey at the Tour de France, all while helping Jonas Vingegaard secure the overall victory. His early dominance in 2022 was a reflection of his best form, and that year serves as a reference point for what peak Van Aert looks like.

In 2021, his season began with a fourth-place finish at Strade Bianche before he won his second race of the year, taking victory on stage one of Tirreno-Adriatico. This was another example of a relatively quick start, though not as immediate as 2022. Meanwhile, in 2020, his form built up more gradually. That year, he finished 11th at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad before winning his first race of the year at Strade Bianche during the COVID-affected season, and the Belgian followed that up by winning Milano-Sanremo in August.

These comparisons suggest that Van Aert’s form tends to peak later in the season rather than in February or early March. While his 2022 campaign was an exception where he started fast, most other years have seen him gradually improve as the season progresses. This provides some reassurance that his slow start to 2025 does not necessarily mean he will struggle when the biggest races arrive.

Johan Bruyneel has also downplayed concerns, stating, “There is no reason to worry about Wout van Aert,” and predicting that he will reach his peak form in time for the Tour of Flanders. Van Aert himself has expressed confidence that he is on the right track, saying, “I also needed to throw myself back in and enjoy it.” While these statements suggest that there is no panic within his camp, fans will still be eager to see improvements in the coming weeks.

Van Aert’s primary goal for 2025 is to finally win a second Monument. His last Monument victory came at Milano-Sanremo in 2020, and since then, he has had several near misses. This year, he is focusing heavily on the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix, two races currently in the stronghold of his nemesis: Mathieu van der Poel.

If history is anything to go by, there is still time for him to reach peak condition before those races. His biggest tests are still to come, and if he can time his form correctly, his slow start to the year will soon be forgotten.

While Van Aert’s results in 2025 have not been encouraging so far, history suggests that this is not necessarily a major issue for him. He has often taken time to build into his best form, and it is possible that this season will follow a similar trajectory.

However, his fans will be hoping to see signs of improvement soon. If his performances do not pick up before the major classics, then concerns over his form will only grow.