We enter the Asturias with a brutal mountain stage. The Vuelta a España returns to the Puerto de Ancares, through it's steepest side, and Ben O'Connor will be taken to the limit. Will he able to survive the expected offensive from Primoz Roglic and Enric Mas?
A brutal day of racing, but only the first of 4 in the Asturias. Stage 13 starts in the city of Lugo but heads deep into the mountains and features a summit finish on the very steep Puerto de Ancares. A return to the high mountains with one of the Asturias' most famous mountains. There are a few ascents early in the day that allow for some strong riders to go up the road. No rolling roads but instead just flat between the climbs.
5Km at 5.9% and 7.7Km at 5.1% do the warm-up. Late in the day two smaller climbs lead into the final one. They are 3.5Km at 4.8% (37Km to go) and 6.6Km at 5.9% (20Km to go). Only a small descent before a false-flat run-in to the final climb. So the riders already enter Ancares with some slight uphill gradients, before going into the real hard gradients.
The average gradient of the climb is very high but it's still harmed by the first two kilometers that are really not. Instead, we can say that the final 5 kilometers average 11%, with a few hairpins. The final 2 kilometers specially are even steeper than that... It's one of the many hard summit finishes in the race and one where big gaps are expected.
The Weather
No real wind to talk about in the finale, and low temperatures. The riders will be able to enjoy it, after the whole week of heat at the start of the race.
The Favourites
Ben O'Connor - Which version of O'Connor will we have? Into Granada, he dealt with the climbing very well and so did Felix Gall. If he shows the same legs we can very well have him not lose meaningful time to his rivals - he is a strong climber. He will be put to the test, there is no doubt, but we don't know if he will be able to put in a strong climb and keep a big gap to Primoz Roglic.
Primoz Roglic - Roglic himself showed that in the high mountains, he is not superior to the competition. This climb, very steep and consistent, suits him well. So I do believe he can make the difference here, but he is in the position of responsibility. BORA do have to work, and they have the team, but in these gradients it'll make little difference it has to be Roglic himself keeping it together against Enric Mas.
Enric Mas - Arguably, I think the strongest climber in this peloton right now with his current form. In Granada he had the legs to make the difference and overtake Roglic in the GC, but then he had a descent. This time around the stage ends atop the mountain and although it's not a whole-day day in the mountains as he likes, the final climb is hard to make differences. Movistar doesn't have the team to make it too hard but the gradients make it possible for him to move and not have to worry about other teams chasing him down.
GC Fight - I think both BORA and Movistar have reasons to pull a bit throughout the day and try to control the breakaway, to then fight for the stage win and bonifications. Other teams may also put their nose to the wind as we have an open field. In the last mountain stage Richard Carapaz put in a massive ride, and if he has the same legs he can make differences here - and perhaps overtake a few in the GC as it really was a great performance. Mikel Landa and Carlos Rodríguez follow him in the GC and as pure climbers they will love this terrain.
Florian Lipowitz will be supporting Roglic but looked great in the last few days; David Gaudu and Mattias Skjelmose have also looked very sharp... Adam Yates is a wildcard, and we have to take into consideration also Sepp Kuss, Pavel Sivakov, Cristián Rodríguez and George Bennett.
Breakaway - Only very strong climbers can win on such a day. Until the final ascent it's not an overly hard stage but Puerto de Ancares leaves no room for bluffing or struggling. Eddie Dunbar, Jack Haig, Lorenzo Fortunato, Michael Woods, Jefferson Alexander Cepeda, Mattia Cattaneo, Max Poole, Rein Taaramäe and Jay Vine are the main riders to consider. A few other talented climbers have been burning their legs in recent days and here it has to be someone with fresh legs.
Prediction 2024 Vuelta a España 2024 stage 13:
*** Primoz Roglic, Enric Mas
** Richard Carapaz, Mikel Landa, Carlos Rodríguez
* Ben O'Connor, David Gaudu, Mattias Skjelmose, Adam Yates, Sepp Kuss, Pavel Sivakov, Eddie Dunbar, Jefferson Alexander Cepeda, Mattia Cattaneo, Max Poole, Jay Vine
Pick: Enric Mas
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