PREVIEW | Vuelta a Espana 2023 stage 11 - Fireworks or GC stalemate as Laguna Negra de Vinuesa?

Preview. Sepp Kuss has kept the race lead, but it narrows to Remco Evenepoel. Stage 11 of the Vuelta a Espana doesn't allow for many attacks, but the summit finish at the Laguna Negra de Vinuesa can see fireworks and another explosive finale.

Very similar to the ninth day of racing, stage 11 is a complicated day due mostly due to it's finale. It's a stage that features little climbing but has a slight summit finish. This time in Burgos at La Laguna Negra, it's an explosive finale where several can contest the win.

163 kilometers on the menu and honestly not really much to mention. Virtually the entire day is flat, with small ascents as is always the case on Spanish roads, but no intermediate sprints, KOM points or anything too special. Then it heats up towards the finale, the organizers have put in yet another summit finish where the climbers will have to go to the limit.

It's not an overly hard climb, 6.6 kilometers at 6.6%. The speeds will be very high, the riders will enter fresh, so I expect a lot of slipstreaming and the lack of aggressive racing. The steepest section of the ascent will exactly be it's end, the final 500 meters have the road go at around 10%, it's most likely a stage to ride in the wheels and then fight for seconds in an anaerobic final kilometer.

The Weather

No rain, no cold, it will be normal weather but it won't really influence the day.

The Favourites

Breakaway fight - It should be how the stage will be decided. The start is flat, and the stage is almost completely flat, hence easy to control if the teams want, but I seriously doubt any team has in mind pushing through a flat day to have the chance to fight for a stage win here. I am referring to Jumbo-Visma, Soudal - Quick-Step and UAE Team Emirates of course. No team has any signs that putting in the hard work can pay off tomorrow, so I expect all to just save themselves as much as possible until the final climb.

Hence a breakaway can succeed, it won't be easy to find your way into the front group but those who do can have chance for glory. Into the second week of the race plenty riders will already have freedom. The attacks may and likely will come before the final ascent which can mix things up, as a very diverse group is expected because of the start.

Yet I would expect some of these riders to try, and one of them possibly take the win. Cristián Rodríguez, Rémy Rochas, Wout Poels, Juan Pedro López, Lennard Kämna, Damiano Caruso, Sergio Higuita, Romain Bardet, Rui Costa, Romain Grégoire, Lennert van Eetvelt, Oier Lazkano, Matteo Sobrero, Chris Hamilton, Jesús Herrada, Sylvain Moniquet, Anreas Kron,... It's a very open stage, only a few will actually be in front, and then out of those they have to succeed in the combination of tactics and climbing legs towards the finale. A bit of a lottery, there is no overwhelming favourite.

As for the GC? I expect a stalemate. The stage just isn't hard, the Vuelta has plenty mountain stages, and the two Pyrenees days are coming. Teams will want to save up legs, the stage doesn't allow for early attacks from GC riders, and the final ascent besides not being too hard, has it's hardest phase in the final kilometer. There perhaps a few seconds of difference, but I wouldn't call for more than that.

Jumbo-Visma want to keep the lead in Sepp Kuss' shoulders and they want to keep their three options as best placed as possible. Remco Evenepoel wants to maintain raids under control, and here he should succeed. I wouldn't be surprised to see UAE attack, they definitely have the legs and the reasons to do it, but the fireworks should only come in the final two kilometers and to make differences won't be easy.

The fight for the minor placings at this point may start, with riders such as Kuss, Marc Soler and Lenny Martínez still in the Top5, the likes of Enric Mas or Aleksandr Vlasov may want to extend the gaps as much as possible if one of them is dropped and on the day focus on those small gaps.

Prediction Vuelta a Espana 2023 stage 11:

*** Wout Poels, Rui Costa
** Lennard Kämna, Oier Lazkano, Romain Bardet
* Remco Evenepoel, Primoz Roglic, Jonas Vingegaard, Juan Ayuso, Damiano Caruso, Sergio Higuita, Romain Grégoire, Matteo Sobrero

Pick: Romain Grégoire