PREVIEW | Tour de Romandie 2024 stage 4 - Juan Ayuso and UAE's race to lose at queen stage

Stage 4 of the Tour de Romandie is without a doubt the hardest of the week. With a lot of climbing on the menu and a summit finish atop a long ascent, UAE Team Emirates will be tasked with defending Juan Ayuso's race lead.

The queen stage perhaps? That argument definitely holds up when we see the amount of climbing on the menu. A small hilltop at the start, but perhaps the most difficult feature of the day is the first categorized ascent ascent to Ovronnaz. It is 9.1 kilometers at 9.5%; a brutal climb where a breakaway may be formed, attacks may come or a team may put on the pressure and break the race into pieces. Everything is possible, but it is still quite early in the day.

The 3500 climbing meters on the day come from a string of ascents that come later on the day. 2.1Km at 8.6% (72.5Km to go), 9.6Km at 5.4% (51Km to go) and 4.1Km at 8.2% (44Km to go). These are unlikely to see attacks, but will continue to create damage in the peloton. A very technical descent follows.

But the attacks are expected in the final ascent to Leysin. A known finale, but a more difficult one than normal. It's 15 kilometers at 5.9%, with some tough gradients close to the finish. The final kilometers are it's toughest; and the final kilometer features some technical and tight streets which should make for spectacular footage.

The Weather

The temperatures do finally rise, so it won't be such a cold and snowy day like the previous mountain stage. The wind will blow stronger however. It will be a tailwind in the first big climb of the day, in Leysin it will come as a tailwind throughout most of it (from two different directions).

The Favourites

Juan Ayuso - UAE has this race under a little bit of control. Ayuso used the time-trials and rode into the race lead. However due to the rain, the differences made in both TT's are small against a few rivals. But UAE does have the lead and he will have Adam Yates riding in his support. Add today's winner Brandon McNulty, Pavel Sivakov, Felix Grossschartner and Jan Christen, it will be hard to put UAE under pressure if Ayuso has a strong day and it means the attacks should only come in the final climb.

Carlos Rodríguez - I expect INEOS to be the team who will try the hardest to make it a hard race. Rodríguez is only 11 seconds from the race lead of Ayuso and was the rider who matched him at Itzulia Basque Country. The Spaniard can absolutely win this race and is in great form. The team has Egan Bernal and Thymen Arensman who can attack the day early on to put pressure on UAE, or most likely push the pace up the final climb.

Lenny Martínez - The leader of Groupama had his flaw in the TT's. Both have passed and he's in fifth place, 23 seconds away from Juan Ayuso. Even in the complicated situation currently, the youngster can still win this race actually. David Gaudu will certainly look to play a support role, it will be interesting to see if this will work.

BORA - BORA have to put down the pressure in some way, either by attacking or pacing. Jai Hindley has lost over a minute on these days and doesn't look his sharpest, which means that he will be willing to risk in order to try and make an impact on the race. Aleksandr Vlasov sits third, 10 seconds from the race lead, and could do something special. Additionally the team have a motivated Florian Lipowitz sitting in sixth place, quite impressively, and the German could also finish quite high here if he has another good day.

Ilan van Wilder - The Belgian is the second placed figure in the overall classification. Quick-Step do not have a team to push the pace here, van Wilder has to wait for others to make the race. This doesn't mean he can't win however. A great climber on his day, the 7 seconds he's got behind Ayuso are a very small gap that can be cut in a matter of a sprint or bonus seconds.

Jayco took over the responsibility in the previous mountain stage and Luke Plapp took time on the competition. On a day like this however it'll be much harder, as it's better suited to the pure climbers. He can still race well however, both he and Simon Yates can attack the race and chase a stage win. Damiano Caruso and Yannis Voisard already sit inside the Top10 and will want to keep this position, they will race on the defensive.

The likes of Enric Mas and Richard Carapaz are also expected to try and attack to climb up the GC. Add to the mix Tao Geoghegan Hart, Harold Tejada, Koen Bouwman, Guillaume Martin, Harm Vanhoucke and Cristián Rodríguez into the mix and we'll have a strong day of racing.

Prediction Tour de Romandie 2024 stage 4:

*** Juan Ayuso, Lenny Martínez, Carlos Rodríguez
** Adam Yates, Aleksandr Vlasov, Simon Yates
* Egan Bernal, Ilan van Wilder, Jai Hindley, Florian Lipowitz, David Gaudu, Luke Plapp, Enric Mas, Guillaume Martin

Pick: Lenny Martínez