The sprinters should have another showdown on stage 5 of the Giro d'Italia. We preview a day where the fast men will be headlining the race once again; but this time around without any climbs in the finale where attacks can pose a serious danger.
Stage 5 will be another day for the fast men. After start that was anything but friendly to the sprinters, the fifth day of racing also presents little obstacles to a bunch sprint in Lucca. With 2300 meters of climbing, it's by no means a pan-flat day, but the sprinters can be happy with what is a day designed for them.
The first 62 kilometers feature some climbing that is not easy, it does provide an opportunity for a breakaway to go up the road with quality riders, whilst the uphill sections pressure the sprinter teams into taking it easy; which can see the gaps rise dangerously ahead of a very fast and mostly pan-flat final two thirds of the stage.
A small hilltop come with 22 kilometers to go, it's 3 kilometers at 4.3%... Not hard enough to drop sprinters this far from the finish, it should just be a regular ascent. A bunch sprint will follow in Lucca. It's not an overly technical finale but it isn't simple, moving through a ring road around the historic center of the city. It features a few roundabouts and fast corners, in a finale that will be flat and perfect for the specialists.
The Weather
The wind won't really have any meaningful intensity throughout the day. Unlike today, the rain should not make it's presence felt as well; a relief for many riders.
The Favourites
Jonathan Milan - He's done it just as he should. As I said, Milan is incredibly powerful but positioning is his flaw. Today he did it right with Lidl-Trek and took the win. Now with the confidence back up and with a finale that suits him well, it will be another day for him to hunt for a quality victory.
Tim Merlier - I expect it to be very fast and chaotic however, unlike today in the final meters, and so I argue that Tim Merlier may stand better chances. A completely flat sprint with over a dozen contenders for the podium will prove a nightmare for some; but the Belgian usually does very well in this type of sprint and he could go on to beat Milan again.
Kaden Groves - Do not disregard Kaden Groves from taking a stage win. Second today, he was the closes to beating Milan and honestly it looked like he had the legs - maybe helped by the final ascent. Either ways, a sign of good form; and by the way he's been searching for points in the intermediate sprints it is clear that he will give everything to finish as high as possible in the final sprint.
Today we saw a few noticeable things among the best that can be analyzed. Firstly, Olav Kooij was brought perfectly to the finish line by Visma but he lacked the power of several of his rivals. Fourth at the finish, but it seems to indicate that he does not have the raw power to win against such strong sprinters in a day without many difficulties. Another is that Phil Bauhaus, once again under the radar, snuck into the podium and I argue he could've done even more if he wasn't stuck behind the barrier and the wall (Milan in this case being the wall).
Lacking the climbs late in the day we could see a few pure sprinters show up in a better light in the sprint. Fabio Jakobsen surely needs it, and I do think in this finale the team will try to back him up. The likes of Caleb Ewan, Alberto Dainese and Juan Sebastián Molano have been rather absent from the action so far, they will want to take this opportunity with both hands.
Then we've got some outsiders, some of which already finished on the Top10 of the sprints we've had so far; others will try to do so... Astana have two cards in Davide Ballerini and Max Kanter; whilst we've got other fast men to consider such as Danny van Poppel, Laurence Pithie, Fernando Gaviria, Stanislaw Aniolkowski, Madis Mihkels, Ethan Vernon, Giovanni Lonardi and Enrico Zanoncello.
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Prediction Giro d'italia 2024 stage 5:
*** Jonathan Milan, Tim Merlier, Kaden Groves
** Phil Bauhaus, Olav Kooij
* Danny van Poppel, Madis Mihkels, Fernando Gaviria, Fabio Jakobsen, Tobias Lund Andresen, Caleb Ewan, Alberto Dainese, Juan Sebastián Molano
Pick: Jonathan Milan
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