"I only see Primoz Roglic capable of threatening Tadej Pogacar" - Danny Nelissen expecting Slovenian Tour de France winner

After his comprehensive win of the 2024 Giro d'Italia earlier this year, Tadej Pogacar heads to the Tour de France as the pre-race favourite to win the Maillot Jaune. Given the uncertainty surrounding his main rival Jonas Vingegaard, who could emerge as Pogacar's main challenger is something that splits opinion.

According to ex-pro Danny Nelissen, himself a three-time Tour de France competitor, Pogacar's Slovenian compatriot, Primoz Roglic is the man best placed to emerge from the pack and give the UAE Team Emirates leader something of a challenge. "I only see Primoz Roglic capable of threatening him," Nelissen tells Wielerrevue.

Even with Roglic however, Nelissen is unsure Pogacar will truly be challenged over the coming month. "It has been quiet around Roglic lately," the Dutchman analyses. "There is still quite a bit of time before the Tour and I hope we see a battle between the big 3, namely Pogacar, Vingegaard and Roglic. It will be very important that Pogacar has recovered well and does not get sick between the Giro and the Tour."

Despite already having a Grand Tour in his legs, the fact Vingegaard, Roglic and Remco Evenepoel were all disrupted by a mass crash at the Itzulia Basque Country, ensure Pogacar's heavy favouritism is well placed according to Nelissen. "His competitors have all had inadequate preparation," the Dutchman explains. "Certainly Vingegaard with his collapsed lung, he has lost a lot of condition after the Itzulia Basque Country. I don't see him appearing in top form at the start of the Tour. Vingegaard had to stay in bed in hospital for a very long time and he could not be transported."

"I was always taught that if you don't cycle for one day, you have to train two days to make up for it. If he can train well in May and June, it is possible, but at what intensity was he able to cycle? If you follow the logic a little follows, then Pogacar could win the Giro and the Tour," Nelissen continues. "I don't think you can conclude from the Giro that Pogacar is more dominant than ever before. Who will he win against? Ben O'Connor. With all due respect, that is not the greatest classification rider. I have not yet mentioned Evenepoel for the Tour. He may have won the Vuelta, but I still have to see him in the absolute high mountains of the Tour."