"One of the most cunning and crafty riders I’ve ever raced against" - Primoz Roglic best placed to break Pogacar/Vingegaard Tour de France stranglehold says Chris Froome

There is something in that but in a 3 week race the specific individual unexpected time losses don’t have as much importance as made out and aren’t the real reasons for winning or losing.

If you consider how narrow the gaps are at the end of most GTs (a few minutes if not seconds after over 80 hours), it is clear that no-one is riding at full pace to get the fastest time but that they are riding according to their placement, rivals, expectations and feelings, strategy and energy conservation etc. each and every stage. As you say, with hindsight Rogliç might have ridden differently if he’d felt Pog would have caught up the difference. Pog on the other hand kind of left it to luck, there was no way he could know in advance he’d not have a small mechanical or puncture and could rely on his expected form to catch up enough at the last minute. He deserved the win for Rogliç’ (who will never make that mistake again) complacency but he was still lucky.

When Contador “won” after Schlecks’ mechanical people called it unfair of him, they forget that all he did was catch back up the time Schleck gained on him because of a puncture. Had Contador not lost that time, he’d have had a good gap and would have been able to afford waiting for Schleck to get his bike in order.

Every situation in a race affects the rider but also his nearest rivals who react accordingly.