PREVIEW | Vuelta a Espana 2023 stage 16 - Sepp Kuss has lead tested in another tough summit finish

Preview. Stage 16 of the Vuelta a Espana will be a short day on the bike, with tricky rolling roads throughout the day but a steep summit finish is set to take the GC riders to the limit once again.

Stage 16 will be a very short day through the rugged Spanish north, with a brutal summit finish. It is a very untraditional stage format, but the day will be decided in the ascent to Bejes where the gradients will reach up often above 10% for almost five kilometers.

A truly remarkable day when it comes to how differently the organizers design stages. This, the first day of the final week, is almost designed to see incredible watts in the final ascent. Close to the sea, the race has 115 kilometers which are rolling but without any meaningful ascent. It's all about the final ascent to Bejes the day.

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The finish will be just outside the scenic village. The climb is 4.9 kilometers at 8.7%, starting off very steep, having a bit of a flat section in it's middle, and then rolling along on gradients of mostly 10% all the way into the line. A grueling summit finish, it will make for interesting viewing, tactics won't matter much but instead it'll mostly be about the legs.

The Weather

The wind won't be felt on the day. The rain may, the forecast points towards wet roads throughout the afternoon, but honestly there is not a single big descent on the day, and it's unlikely that teams will take big risks ahead of two massive mountain stages and in the final week.

The Favourites

The first question is how the GC race will develop. With the Angliru and Cruz de Linares stages the days following, it will inevitably mean that riders will be looking to save whatever they can from the day. The very short stage and single-climb profile also isn't too good for the chances of striking big even if a rival is on a bad day. The climb is still hard though, gaps are possible and likely even if just in a final sprint, but will Jumbo-Visma want them?

A stage like this is easy to control for them even if a threat goes onto the breakaway, they will likely try to keep the GC as it is, the same as stage 14. It seems as if there is not an issue by the other two leaders for Sepp Kuss to win the overall classification. Even if he suffers a bad day, both Primoz Roglic and Jonas VIngegaard seem fit to cover any attack. Juan Ayuso may give it a go as he looks to be improving form, whilst Bahrain - Victorious and BORA - hansgrohe may want to test a seemingly fading Marc Soler.

Truly I do believe it's another day for a breakaway. As I've said on stage 14, no team can match or even come close to Jumbo-Visma at the moment, and on a day like this I see no reason why another team would be pushing throughout the day. It's a matter of what to the 'bees' want and I see no reason why they'd be burning through riders to chase a stage win that isn't that important in the bigger picture.

I believe a large group of riders, quite mixed, will set off from the peloton in the first third of the day, and then for it to develop similarly to stage 11 where Jesús Herrada won, with early attacks unlikely to succeed, and the stage coming down fully to the final climb, where tactics won't be of much interest, but instead about the pure climbing legs. The Spaniard will be an obvious first pic having already succeeded on a day like this, he's also on paper part of the fight for the KOM classification, the likes of Michael Storer and Romain Bardet would also enjoy a victory in a summit finish, whilst Remco Evenepoel dominates the competition and could, if he feels like on a good day, try to spearhead another breakaway.

Santiago Buitrago, Cristián Rodríguez, Einer Rubio, Juan Pedro López, Hugh Carthy, Lenny Martínez, Emanuel Buchmann, Wout Poels, Antonio Tiberi, Lennard Kämna, Geraint Thomas, Romain Grégoire, Max Poole and Andreas Kron are the cards for the day. The lightweight climbers will benefit on a climb like this whilst some puncheurs who can climb could also play a role on the day.

Prediction Vuelta a Espana 2023 stage 16:

*** Romain Bardet, Santiago Buitrago
** Michael Storer, Romain Grégoire, Wout Poels, Remco Evenepoel
* Primoz Roglic, Jonas Vingegaard, Sepp Kuss, Juan Ayuso, Jesús Herrada, Juan Pedro López, Cristián Rodríguez, Emanuel Buchmann, Einer Rubio, Antonio Tiberi, Lennard Kämna, Andreas Kron

Pick: Wout Poels