PREVIEW | Tour de France 2023 stage 15 - Perfect balance for Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar, only 10 seconds decide yellow jersey

Preview. Stage 15 of the Tour de France is set to see another battle between the almost perfectly balanced Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard, whilst Carlos Rodríguez and Jai Hindley continue a ferocious fight for third spot.

The final day of the second week of the Tour de France will be another explosive Alpine day. A longer one, it starts in Les Gets Les Portes du Soleil with a small uphill. It will be an explosive day, the start rather uncertain, the 4500 meters of climbing on the day and the breakaway could go off in the Col des Fleures which is 8.9 kilometers at 4.6%. There will be the 1st category Col de la Forclaz de Montmain which is 7.2Km at 7.4% and will set some more damage in the field.

Estimated start and finish times for Tour de France stage 15: 13:05-18:00CET

It won't be as tough of a start, but the middle of the stage will be very complicated, specially with the presence of the Col de la Croix Fry (11.3Km; 7%), this ascent summits with 55 kilometers to go, the climb features very tough gradients and will be hard to get through. Directly after the summit is a short descent and then the Col des Aravis which is 4.4 kilometers long at 6.2%.

The action should be saved towards the end however. Straight from a steep descent the riders enter the steep Côte des Amerands, 2.7 kilometers at 10.1% which summit with only 10 kilometers to go. A very short descent sees the riders in the center of Saint-Gervais-les-Bains where they'll start the final ascent to Le Betex, 7.2 kilometers at 7.7% which will make for an explosive finale.

A slight transition phase will follow, two descents separated by a plateau. both are very technical. Back in 2016 Romain Bardet and AG2R took advantage of it to split the peloton before the final climb itself. The climb to Le Bettex will be hard, and explosive. The first kilometers (with a GPS error in the profile below) average 10% for 2.7 kilometers.

There is a small descent and then follows the final uphill, this will be 7.7 kilometers at 7% including many switchbacks, an explosive ascent. The final ramp will be steep, differences can be created here in what is the final day of the second week.

The Weather

Like today, some southwestern wind and possible rain showers. Treacherous conditions at times, tailwind on Croix Fry, but on the final climb there are many switchbacks and crowd to block whatever there is.

The Favourites

Jonas Vingegaard - Jumbo have taken back the initiative today. Their thoughts were clear, multi-mountain stage, set a constantly high pace to burn Pogacar's explosivity, and then try to strike. This didn't work. But it also didn't fail, he did manage to respond to the attack in Joux Plane, and at the end of the day even take a second, this will come as a sign that this tactic does at some point work - although maybe it is not worth such a big amount of work. The final climb here will be more explosive, Vingegaard must go on the defensive surely, the summit finish does provide him an opportunity to win the stage if the balance is as it was today.

Tadej Pogacar - This stage will suit Pogacar a little better, the final climb is steep at the base followed by a small descent, then with plenty hairpins. For me the tactic is simple, don't burn the team working early on, don't think of stage win, the gap is only 10 seconds and in this climb Pogacar can surely make that gap even without bonifications. If Jumbo want to end that explosivity they must put in a ton of effort, so both scenarios can work. Either ways 10 seconds is short enough of a gap that he doesn't at all need to do anything crazy.

Top 10 fight - This will be a very interesting for the Top10. Morzine saw huge gaps and big changes in the Top10. Sepp Kuss and Felix Gall moved up quite a lot today with great form in pure climbing terrain. The main battle will be between Carlos Rodríguez is now in third place ahead of Jai Hindley by a mere second. The Spaniard looks strong, however Hindley did crash today and may have suffered more because of it.

Adam Yates sits fifth and on paper could make it to the podium, but it wouldn't be too smart for UAE to save him instead of helping Pogacar where possible. Kuss, Simon Yates and Pello Bilbao are fighting for sixth, everyone else likely has freedom to join a breakaway. Felix Gall, David Gaudu, Tom Pidcock, Guillaume Martin and Emanuel Buchmann all have green card to shoot their shot early in the day, the latter three have a shot of still jumping into the Top10 by the end of the race if they remain consistent. I expect there to still be some cracks until the race ends and they could take advantage...

Jonas Vingegaard is the new leader of the KOM classification. Tadej Pogacar is close behind, this comes as terrible news for the riders who've been focusing on the jersey. This will be a crucial day for the standings and these riders must strike big if they want to keep their chances of winning the classification alive - Col de la Loze will favour the GC guys. Neilson Powless and Giulio Ciccone are the two main contenders, the Italian behind but the favourite to take over taking into consideration his current climbing legs. Tobias Johannessen and Michal Kwiatkowski could on paper also chase some points, alongside Michael Woods.

However the focus lays mainly on the stage for most. On a brutal climbing day only a very strong climber can win. Thibaut Pinot and Mikel Landa looked strong early in the day and despite giving up on GC still sit inside Top15. Jonathan Castroviejo, Jack Haig, Wout Poels, Ion Izagirre and Chris Harper could still do something today, over the past days each have shown brilliant form and this deep into such a brutal race that's what's necessary.

Prediction Tour de France 2023 stage 15:

*** Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard
** Giulio Ciccone, Felix Gall, Michael Woods
* Carlos Rodriguez, Jai Hindley, Adam Yates, David Gaudu, Tobias Johannessen, Thibaut Pinot, Jack Haig

Pick: Felix Gall