PREVIEW | Criterium du Dauphine 2024 stage 7 - Primoz Roglic's most important Tour de France test; Remco Evenepoel still dreaming of yellow jersey

The queen stage of the Criterium du Dauphiné? Stage 7 of the French race is an incredibly hard stage with an incredibly hard summit finish at Samoëns 2000. Primoz Roglic has now taken over the race lead and will have a key day in the yellow jersey.

I term this the queen stage. By all means, a stage worthy of a Grand Tour finale - it even fits the Tour de France's modern trend to make short stages! This is a day that goes up and down all day long, with five categorized climbs and a brutal summit finish. Only 146 kilometers, but 4300 meters of climbing.

The stage has a false-flat start but it won't take long until the first climb of the day: Col des Saisies. It is a long ascent, but the final 9.4 kilometers average 6.6% and it should be the likely location for a breakaway to form. A strong one, with plenty good climbers who can take advantage of such a hard profile.

The descent is steep and relatively technical, so it will be a moment of tension. At it's bottom the riders tackle the lowest-altitude climb of the day but by no means an easy one. The Côte d'Araches is 6.1 kilometers in length and 7.1% of average gradient. A very twisty climb with only a tiny descent following; but all this will come before the two final climbs of the day.

The first is the Col de la Ramaz: 14 kilometers at 7% average gradient with a few that are in the 10% or above. This climb ends with 37.5 kilometers to go, it will be very difficult but most likely not decisive for the outcome of the day, as most riders will be focusing on the final ascent.

Then the final one, which is the ascent to Samoëns 2000. 10 kilometers at 8.8%. It is another constant climb that is quite brutal. There is no warm-up, the gradients go up to 10% right at the base and stay like this virtually thoughout the whole climb. There's nowhere to hide on this road, you either have the legs or not. If not, seconds or minutes will certainly be lost even for the strongest of climbers.

The Weather

Wind gusts from the southwest could become a small headwind in the final climb, but it's steepness will deny the effect that may be present. The threat on the day are the small chances of rain. So far, we have seen the damage this has had in the race, and the GC riders have to continue to be very wary not to crash out as Juan Ayuso did.

The Favourites

Primoz Roglic - Today's ride in Allevard is exactly what Roglic wanted and needed. A dominant climb, stronger than the rest, and with a very strong team backing him up. The Slovenian has showed great level ahead of the Tour de France but now can also win the Dauphiné. This stage is much harder overall, less explosive which is not good for him, but with this form he is expected to keep the race lead whilst Aleksandr Vlasov will now have the clear support role when the race explodes (and Jai Hindley himself looked quite better today and can also do quite well on such terrain).

Remco Evenepoel - Evenepoel didn't look his very best but a day after a crash, this was not totally unexpected. But Evenepoel is not a top climber in the bigger picture, this wasn't a surprise. Evenepoel will race at pace and with Mikel Landa behind him, they can certainly make this strategy work in pursuit of the podium. To chase the GC win will be very hard.

Giulio Ciccone - Lidl-Trek did a lot of work today, and I was skeptical. But Giulio Ciccone, after a difficult sprint, has came back in brilliant form. The Italian rider can do serious damage. It will be difficult for now to tackle Roglic and BORA but on a climb like this he can make the difference and put himself in a position to try and aim for the GC win on the final day. Despite all this, to fight for the stage win and climb beyond his 11th spot.

INEOS - INEOS raced differently than their usual strategy, but also because they have the men. Laurens de Plus did a brilliant climb and in this form, he can not only be used as a card to fight for the podium, but also attack from far and put others under pressure. I think the British team will want to keep him in his current 7th place however, and then in the final day maybe he and others may risk it all. Carlos Rodríguez isn't in his best form, but I reckon that in a day like this he stands better chances of keeping up with the very best.

I don't expect the stage to be too different in comparison to today, and the the breakaway to win as well. It's a brutal day and the best climbers in the race are all fighting for GC - unless the likes of Sepp Kuss or Tao Geoghegan Hart would have a dramatic improvement since today. BORA is in control, so I don't expect any kamikaze moves, and on such a climb many will want to take it just by pace.

Derek Gee rode an unbelievable climb today and sits fourth. It is possible to improve on this? Common sense would say no, but he is back to his best and you just never know. Also, he'd have to go through Matteo Jorgenson who is looking as consistent as always and is still within a minute of Primoz Roglic: the GC victory is not yet over.

We will continue to have an interesting fight for the Top10 including outsiders such as Oier Lazkano and Callum Scotson who remain in the Top10... But also Jack Haig, Neilson Powless, Harold Tejada, Pavel Sivakov, Marc Soler, Louis Meintjes, Javier Romo, Cristi´´an Rodríguez, Santiago Buitrago, David Gaudu, Guillaume Martin and Clément Berthet.

Prediction Criterium du Dauphiné 2024 stage 7:

*** Primoz Roglic, Giulio Ciccone
** Aleksandr Vlasov, Carlos Rodríguez, Matteo Jorgenson
* Derek Gee, Remco Evenepoel, Laurens de Plus, Derek Gee, Jack Haig

Pick: Primoz Roglic