The Criterium du Dauphiné starts this Sunday with a stage that could well end in a bunch sprint. We preview stage 1, the best opportunity for the sprinters all week in a day where Sam Bennett and Mads Pedersen are the big favourites.
The race starts off in Saint-Pourçain-sur-Sioule, which hosts the start and finish of the opening day. 1900 meters of climbing and most of it is in the first third of the day. Not an overly hard stage, but the first 50 kilometers feature a few small ascents in which a strong breakaway can be formed. With no race leader yet, this can make things difficult to control as has happened in the past.
However throughout the rest of the day there aren't overly difficult moments. The stage, otherwise, is almost completely flat and a bunch sprint is expected after 174 kilometers.
And if so, it will be a regular one. No technical features to analyze, the final kilometers are in a single road which is completely straightforward into town. All about experience and timing for the sprinter teams, who will also have to take into consideration the slightly downhill gradients in the final kilometer.
The Weather
Small chances of rain and some wind from the northwest. Overall it shouldn't affect the day much as the riders move in every direction, but there will be a tailwind early on which could help the chances of a strong breakaway forming. The final kilometers will have a cross-tailwind.
The Favourites
Sam Bennett - The true test for the Tour de France. Bennett is not hiding away from the climbs, and he came to the Dauphiné to prepare for France specifically. At the time being, his participation can be deemed certain, but last year the same was said in BORA and he was kicked out. Now in Decathlon, he failed to show results throughout most of the year... However, he bounced back to win four stages and the GC at the 4 Jours de Dunkerque. He won the queen stage up the cobbled Mont Cassel. That was a big statement, he has the speed and apparently the form, and could benefit here from the French team's hugely successful team.
Mads Pedersen - Pedersen will likely be the main sprinter in the race, but on this day there aren't climbs towards the finish where Bennett could possibly be put under pressure. After Jonathan Milan thrived at the Giro d'Italia, Pedersen has big shoes to fill in with Lidl-Trek, but the Dane is coming over after almost two months out of competition and with the riders that will back him up at the Tour de France as well.
A flat sprint, it won't benefit many of the fast men that are present in the race. I expect a strong performance from Lars Boven leading in the leadout of Alpecin-Deceuninck. Emils Liepins and Clément Venturini are the two riders who could enjoy this kind of finale.
Magnus Cort Nielsen, Davide De Pretto, Vito Braet, Ide Schelling, Milan Menten, Casper Pedersen, Iván García Cortina and Fred Wright are other sprinters/classics riders with a good sprint that should aim for a result on this day.
A breakaway could succeed. It is never easy to say who could succeed on such a day, as the interest will vary from rider (and team) to rider. However there are a few riders that have a good combination of quality and traditionally have the racing spirit that could lead to success on a day such as this. I would consider Nico Denz, Andreas Leknessund, Krists Neilands, Thomas de Gendt, Andreas Kron and Javier Romo.
Prediction Criterium du Dauphiné 2024 stage 1:
*** Sam Bennett, Mads Pedersen
** Lars Boven, Emils Liepins
* Magnus Cort Nielsen, Ide Schelling, Milan Menten, Casper Pedersen, Ivan García Cortina, Clément Venturini
Pick: Sam Bennett
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