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PREVIEW | Criterium du Dauphine 2024 - Remco Evenepoel, Primoz Roglic and most Tour de France contenders face off in key race
CyclingSunday, 02 June 2024 at 10:41
The Criterium du Dauphiné, following the Giro d'Italia, serves as the first World Tour event and is historically pivotal in Tour de France preparation. From June 2nd to 9th, top Tour contenders, including Remco Evenepoel and Primoz Roglic, will vie for victory across diverse terrains, including challenging mountain stages. Let's preview this highly anticipated race.
The race starts off with a flat stage into Saint-Pourçain-sur-Sioule which should end in a sprint, despite the tough start that can see a strong breakaway up the road. Stage 2 will feature a summit finish at the Col de la Loge but, despite the long ascent, the gradients are not overly hard and it should be a rather open finale with plenty contenders.
Stage 3 finishes at Les Estables; another hilly stage which features a summit finish that is 3.8 kilometers long at 5.2%. The key day of the first half of the race is stage 4, which is a 34-kilometer long time-trial into Neulise. It is not completely flat, but it will favour the specialists and create meaningful gaps in the overall classification.
Stage 1: Saint-Pourçain-sur-Sioule - Saint-Pourçain-sur-Sioule, 174.8 kilometers
Stage 2: Gannat - Col de la Loge, 152.7 kilometers
Stage 3: Celles-sur-Durolle - Les Estables, 181.3 kilometers
Stage 4(ITT): Saint-Germain-Laval - Neulise, 34.4 kilometers
On the fifth day of racing we've got a hilly day into Saint-Priest, right on the outskirts of Lyon. A difficult one to predict, it could end inn a sprint but there will be plenty small climbs during the day where a few may get dropped.
But on stage 6 the race enters the mountains and it's most decisive phase. Three consecutive tough days - some would say the perfect warm-up for the Tour. The first of them doesn't feature too many difficulties until the summit to Le Collet d'Alevard which is 11 kilometers at over 8%.
Stage 7 features plenty climbs, several of them quite difficult, and a summit finish at Samoëns 2000 which is 10 kilometers long at 9%. This will most likely be the queen stage.
Stage 8 at the Dauphiné is frequently a day where raids take place, and this year is no exception. The stage starts off with the very steep Col de la Forclaz de Montmin, and after a tough day there will be a third consecutive summit finish. The race will end in the beautiful Plateau des Glières with the final climb being 6 kilometers at 11% - before the false-flat finale on the plateau itself.
Stage 5: Amplepuis - Saint-Priest, 199.2 kilometers
Stage 6: Hauterives - Le Collet d'Allevard, 174.7 kilometers
Stage 7: Albertville - Samoëns 2000, 146.2 kilometers
Stage 8: Thônes - Plateau des Glières, 158.6 kilometers
The Favourites
Remco Evenepoel - Realistically, in me eyes it is very hard to see the current Evenepoel fighting for a Tour de France win and here it is not too different. A brilliant rider of many talents, but the Tour is decided in the mountains with the current generation that we've got. Here it isn't overly different, but the lack of Pogacar and Vingegaard does make a GC win possible. The first half of the race is perfect for him and he may even enter the mountains in yellow. The last three stages are pure climbing days. He will have trained specifically for this terrain, I expect; but at the same time although he is not the best climber, he will likely be seen and talked of as one, and like in Paris-Nice everyone may cover him, and force him to work when others attack. Both he and Mikel Landa are returning to racing after two months away due to injuries, that also has to be taken into account, but he has said that winning the GC may not be his priority. Ilan van Wilder is also present, a good option for GC or support.
Primoz Roglic - We cannot look at BORA as 'Primoz Roglic's team'. Very far from it, specially at the Dauphiné where the race is more open and we lack a few Tour contenders. Here, I see them as the big favourites actually. Roglic returns from injury and in this race I believe he can do very well, and I think BORA will have worked with him well over the past two months after his Itzulia crashes. But Aleksandr Vlasov who returned to his best form this spring and Jai Hindley who was on the podium here last year have serious chances of creating chaos in the mountains - even if they are not as strong time-trialists.
UAE - Most of the Tour de France block present here, although the team does not feature Tadej Pogacar, Adam Yates and João Almeida. On the helm is Juan Ayuso, winner of Itzulia Basque Country, podium at Tirreno-Adriatico. He has a very big chance here to prove himself ahead of the Tour where he does not want to be a support rider. If he can beat the competition he should have this - and this is very possible, he is a superb time-trialist and great climber, but lacks consistency at times. He's got several of his TDF teammates here backing him up, and the team want him to become a true leader. If he does not win the race, he can't expect the team to put him in the same role as Pogacar at the Tour, so the pressure is on.
Visma - The defending champion and big card for the Tour Jonas Vingegaard is absent here, a big problem for Visma. He should be racing in July, but here they are unlikely to aim for a win. Still a podium is very much possible. Sepp Kuss is an interesting rider, but I do fear he will lose a lot in the time-trial and only a crazy long-range attack and some luck would have him there. Matteo Jorgenson however is capable of it. Although this race is more climber-oriented he can do it, and he can be consistent; so I expect the American to lead the team's GC hopes with a lot of the Tour block behind the duo.
Carlos Rodríguez - INEOS are an experienced team and they know how to prepare for the Tour. Most of it's block is here at the Dauphiné, as you expect from the top teams. In the lead Carlos Rodríguez, fifth last year in France and this year winner of the Tour de Romandie; alongside second and win in the queen stage of Itzulia Basque Country. A complete rider, a terrific climber, who can fight for the yellow jersey and put INEOS back on the radar for the Tour dream.
Bahrain - Antonio Tiberi just finished the Giro in fifth place and, apparently, with good legs. The Italian is here and that being the case, the GC is certainly a goal because he would instead be resting. But the team will be eyeing Santiago Buitrago as a priority; a rider who did very well at Paris-Nice winning a stage and will have a few opportunities here to do the same.
We've got a few riders that are coming in also looking to make an impact in the overall classification, some preparing the GC for the Tour. That isn't the case with Lorenzo Fortunato, who comes in still trying to take advantage of his Giro form for example. The likes of David Gaudu and Tao Geoghegan Hart have only this in mind; whilst others such as Cristián Rodríguez, Guillaume Martin, Giulio Ciccone, Tobias Johannessen and Iván Sosa may eye the GC, but stages could end up being the priority.
Other big figures
The race is relatively poor when it comes to sprinters, only a few riders who want to build climbing form ahead of the Tour and/or can climb very well themselves are making the trip to France. Mads Pedersen and Sam Bennett are the riders to eye for the bunch sprints, whilst the likes of two-time stage winner at the Tour de Romandie Dorian Godon and Magnus Cort Nielsen can aim for results in the hilly days too. Joshua Tarling will rival the likes of Evenepoel and Roglic in the time-trial whilst the presence of Chris Froome is always noteworthy as he desperately looks to prove his form ahead of the Tour de France to try and make a return.
Prediction Criterium du Dauphiné 2024 overall classification:
*** Primoz Roglic, Juan Ayuso
** Remco Evenepoel, Jai Hindley, Carlos Rodríguez, Matteo Jorgenson
* Aleksandr Vlasov, Sepp Kuss, Antonio Tiberi, Santiago Buitrago, Tao Geoghegan Hart, Cristián Rodríguez
Pick: Primoz Roglic
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