Three sprint stages are left behind at the Giro d'Italia. Into stage 6, the race enters a new phase; the GC riders come to the fore once again in a day marked by the gravel sectors and roads that are used in Strade Bianche - where current pink jersey Tadej Pogacar comfortably won earlier this year.
Stage 6 ill be a very tricky day, one that perhaps flows under the radar of many. After some climbing there will be some definition in the overall classification but on this day the tension will be very high. As is the case in the Tour de France, the Giro d'Italia will also feature gravel racing. In Tuscany, around the city of Siena which hosts every year Strade Bianche; the peloton will find a challenge that is very different to the regular mountain stages that decide the overall classification.
A flat start in Viareggio, but after 70 kilometers it changes, with a few rolling climbs on the menu. All of the attention will be on the big gravel sector (which are two, separated by only a few paved meters actually). With 50 kilometers begins the unpaved spectacle; with a 4.4-flat sector opening things up. Right after follows one with 4.8 kilometers in length which ends with 40 kilometers to go at the summit of a 2.5-kilometer climb at 6%.
10 straight kilometers of gravel racing which feature a relatively tough climb are enough to see big moves, mechanicals, punctures or splits. The race can break apart completely here. What follows are roads that go up and down constantly, are twisty... Hard to put on a chase, favourable for those who want to attack. But there will still be several difficulties.
The 2.4-kilometer gravel sector into Pievina has an intermediate sprint in it's finale and goes both up and down despite the short distance. It is another launchpad for attacks, or plenty things that can go wrong for some riders. Afterwards the roads won't be flat, but still, the toughest climb of the day is yet to come. Into the small town of Serre di Rapolano is 700 meters at 10% and feature a ramp of 22% into the summit.
A brutal little Italian ascent where attacks can come. Fatigue will be set in at this point and all over the place, differences can be made. This comes with only 4 kilometers to go. A small descent follows, but we still have some uphill gradients in the final kilometers including a false-flat ramp to the line.
The Weather
Strong northeastern wind. This will create quite a bit of tension early in the day as splits are possible, with a lot of crosswind ensured for that phase of the day. Later on it becomes more of a cross-headwind throughout many kilometers but in twisty roads which denies some of the effect.
The Favourites
Tadej Pogacar - Winner of Strade Bianche, main figure in the race and strongest rider uphill. Although he was matched on the opening day by a rider who remains dangerous, I argue that Jhonatan Narváez will have an important support role for Geraint Thomas on this stage. The race is not as hard as Strade Bianche but I do believe that Pogacar has the power to leave the competition behind either on the uphill gravel sector or the final climb. In a sprint he could also win. If UAE are out to make a difference on this day - which is likely - they likely will.
GC Fight - Can Pogacar lose pink? Some question if he would was to 'give' his jersey away for a day or two. I argue that UAE does not usually do that, and on the contrary they frequently work more than what they need to. Hence it's unlikely that they will want to give much freedom to anyone. But even if they were to do so, it would require a very strong rider in this type of terrain who would also be close enough in the GC and the truth is there aren't many. Perhaps Alexey Lutsenko, Mauri Vansevenant and Filippo Zana would be riders to consider, with others the gap begins to grow too big.
Whilst we put our focus on Pogacar, there should be an interesting GC fight behind, where there are many contenders and so if a few riders are dropped, others will be motivated to keep the rhythm high. Most should want a day to save their overall classification however. I can only see someone like Romain Bardet risking from far... Geraint Thomas is in good form and likes this terrain so he may try as well. I say this regarding the sectors; on the final climb attacks are likely regardless of the race situation but it's difficult to say how the race will look by then.
But such a day could see the classics riders do quite well. Narváez - mentioned above - is an example of a rider doing extremely well, and INEOS also has Filippo Ganna who can attack outside the climbs. Max Schachmann, Quinten Hermans, Julian Alaphilippe and Laurence Pithie are experienced and strong puncheurs who on their day certainly can make the difference here.
A breakaway could also succeed. I dare to say some riders above could try to be part of it, whilst some of these stand a chance outside a breakaway. Think Andrea Vendrame, Mikkel Honoré, Christophe Laporte, Matteo Trentin, Alessandro De Marchi... In all honesty, plenty other riders can certainly be part of this list but it all depends on their role for the day - no GC riders in the team certainly being a bonus - their feeling on the day, luck to avoid mishaps and overall just be in the right place at the right time. It should be an exciting day of racing.
Prediction Giro d'italia 2024 stage 6:
*** Tadej Pogacar
** Jhonatan Narváez, Laurence Pithie
* Geraint Thomas, Alexey Lutsenko, Romain Bardet, Filippo Ganna, Max Schachmann, Quinten Hermans, Julian Alaphilippe, Alessandro De Marchi
Pick: Tadej Pogacar
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