ANALYSIS | Rating Giro d'Italia teams

Friday, 05 May 2023 at 22:28

The Giro d'Italia is about to start and all teams have confirmed their 'eight' for the first Grand Tour of the season. I'll be taking a look at all teams and what expectations I have of them alongside how they should work throughout the three weeks.

Note: The rating is not regarding the quality of the team, but more specifically a subjective rating of how well I think the team is balanced and built taking into consideration it's ambitions in the race, and how I feel those ambitions fit.

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Soudal - Quick-Step
Lineup: Remco Evenepoel, Davide Ballerini, Mattia Cattaneo, Josef Cerny, Jan Hirt, Pieter Serry, Ilan van Wilder and Louis Vervaeke.
Rating: 9/10

A very important one for the Giro. With Remco in the lead and hoping to win the Giro Quick-Step had to take their best men to support him in the mountains. They could sign little into 2023 but Jan Hirt was specifically brought to help Evenepoel here. The Quick-Step mountain block can't compare to other teams' best but here at the Giro the depth won't be as high which gives them more chances. A clear block has emerged to back him up with Ilan van Wilder, Louis Vervaeke (both have shown great form in the Ardennes and should continue to do so for the opening week) and Pieter Serry. Mattia Cattaneo is also present and could be important if he finds his right form, but both he and Hirt have not been at the highest level this year.

It's a team fully focused on GC. I hope so at least, Davide Ballerini was a bit of a surprising choice in my opinion as the team has plenty rouleurs, but I will believe that he's not thinking of the sprints - otherwise the team will burn climbers in the flat stages. This effect may not be as high though as Josef Cerny came in replacing Fausto Masnada who didn't have good form, he will alongside Ballerini be key in the flat days. Overall I wouldn't change much, the Tour will have Alaphilippe, Jakobsen and the classics riders (most of his leadout), maybe Mauri Vansevenant could've replaced Cerny if Ballerini fully commits to supporting but that's already very specific.

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AG2R Citroën Team
Lineup: Andrea Vendrame, Mikaël Cherel, Alex Baudin, Paul Lapeira, Aurélien Paret-Peintre, Valentin Paret-Peintre, Nicolas Prodhomme and Larry Warbasse.
Rating: 4/10

A team without much to show for. I will start off with absences that I find surprising, which are of Felix Gall who was in great form at the Tour of the Alps, and Nans Peters who performed strongly in the spring and won Il Laigueglia. This is clearly a stage-seeking team and those two could benefit from the many hilly days whilst at the Tour the task will be much more complicated and there will be less options. Aurélien Paret-Peintre could do that, but AG2R have said he would be focusing on a GC.

The problem is he won't have much support in the mountains. Cherel, Prodhomme and Warbasse won't be able to do much once the pace goes up. I believe the team trusts Andrea Vendrame quite a lot here, but he won't have support in the sprints. The presence of Marc Sarreau or Clément Venturini would be important because it's not like they'll have a more important role at the Tour. A French team they focus a lot on the Tour of course, but I feel like they'll have too many riders for not many spots, whilst they could've balanced the two Grand Tours better.

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Alpecin-Deceuninck
Lineup: Stefano Oldani, Nicola Conci, Kaden Groves, Alexander Krieger, Senne Leysen, Oscar Riesebeek, Kristian Sbaragli and Ramon Sinkeldam.
Rating: 6/10

A team focused on the two opening weeks, it's clear as day. I would've argued that Jasper Philipsen could be here and race until stage 12, he'd easily win at least one sprint. The team gives the space to Kaden Groves however, who can win if he finds his good form. He won two stages in Catalunya and the Volta Limburg Classic, however his good form was quite brief and he really struggled through the first two months of the season.

Ramon Sinkeldam is here to lead him out, overall the team can position him as the field is not too strong. Stefano Oldani and Nicola Conci should also lay their eyes on some hilly days, but starting stage 13 they won't really have chances to feature in the race.

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Astana Qazaqstan Team
Lineup: Mark Cavendish, Samuele Battistella, Joe Dombrowski, Gianni Moscon, Vadim Pronskiy, Luis León Sánchez, Christian Scaroni and Simone Velasco.
Rating: 3/10

I'll say what everyone has on their mind. Why does Cavendish not have a leadout? It's baffling honestly, very much feels like whoever is in charge doesn't know what to do with the team's new star. The team isn't putting much pressure on him, and they come to the Giro to win stages. There are no GC goals whatsoever and so no pressure to bring in domestiques, but the problem is that this team doesn't have domestiques, and also doesn't seem to have any leader - just eight riders who will all be told to do their race individually.

Cavendish may not be under pressure, but what is the purpose of bringing him to the Giro if there isn't even a single rider who can help him in the sprints. Cees Bol, Martin Laas, Gleb Syritsa, Davide Martinelli and Yevgeniy Fedorov have all helped him this year. They're not a luxurious leadout sure, but it gives him an opportunity at least. Are they being saved for any other race? Are they going to the Tour to leadout Cees Bol? Because he won't likely stand a chance against the top figures, and at that point even if Cavendish goes he wouldn't have raced with any leadout for months.

It's a weird sight, Cavendish will obviously abandon the race when it reaches the mountains but I think he will only be in contention for only one or two sprints max, and I don't see a win despite some promise given at Scheldeprijs. The team has several riders who can perform in the hilly stages, their goal is clearly to net a stage win. They do stand a chance, Samuele Battistella and Simone Velasco likely their best cards but they will have to race as a team.

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Bahrain - Victorious
Lineup: Damiano Caruso, Santiago Buitrago, Jack Haig, Yukiya Arashiro, Andreas Pasqualon, Jonathan Milan, Jasha Sütterlin and Edoardo Zambanini.
Rating: 7/10

When I looked at the route closely I thought that it would be a perfect finale for Mikel Landa. However because the favourites are Evenepoel and Roglic the time-trials would prove to costly, and to improve on his third place last year it'd need something special. Hence hoping for a podium is a realistic ambition, Damiano Caruso and Jack Haig will be in the fight. I would take Santiago Buitrago to the Tour, he already won a stage here last year and at the Tour mountain support would be just as important, he would have the opportunity to take another step.

Adding Zambanini makes it a nice mountain team. In the cons I'd say there would be no need to have three rouleurs, however I think Bahrain will try to get Milan in the sprints. That's the only reason I can think of, he won't be a big favourite but it'll be a big opportunity, with Andrea Pasqualon leading him out. Sütterlin will likely support the GC riders more, but with Milan aiming for the sprints the team will likely be a bit more vulnerable in the positioning fight as the focus won't be on both Caruso and Haig. The late absence of Mäder is detrimental to the team, Yukiya Arashiro brings more power for the flat stages which may influence the decision of having Milan aim for them.

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BORA - hansgrohe
Lineup: Aleksandr Vlasov, Giovanni Aleotti, Cesare Benedetti, Nico Denz, Bob Jungels, Lennard Kämna, Patrick Konrad and Anton Palzer.
Rating: 9/10

I'd say it's a nicely structured team, Jai Hindley was smart in moving his ambitions to the Tour where he will aim for what BORA also aims here. Aleksandr Vlasov won't be disappointed if he doesn't make it to the podium but he has that chance, whilst Lennard Kämna will also for the first time aim for a Grand Tour following a brilliant spring. It's an interesting duo who has done well in the queen stage of the Tour of the Alps and there are resources to support them.

Patrick Konrad will do so but is also a contender for the hilly stages with the great form he's been on soon. Aleotti and Palzer will be well dedicated to the GC task whilst both Benedetti and Denz can help in the flat stages. The last spot goes to Bob Jungels, he hasn't shown form this year but looking at the team I'd only consider replacing him with Matteo Fabbro who at the end of the day is a very similar rider climbing wise.

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Cofidis
Lineup: Simone Consonni, François Bidard, Davide Cimolai, Thomas Champion, Alexandre Delettre, Jonathan Lastra, Rémy Rochas and Hugo Toumire.
Rating: 4/10

As is the case with AG2R, it's clearly a team focused at the Tour, every single bit of this team shows it. Cofidis is a modest-level team and it's aiming to win stages in France. Here they brought a third-row lineup so to say with the only goal of performing in the sprints. The Italians, who would want to be here, are leading, hence it feels like everything falls into place. Simone Consonni has won a stage at the Saudi Tour, but I admit it'll be hard for him to win a stage, but having Davide Cimolai as a leadout was the right move.

Overall though the rest of the team seems like a random group of riders, none of them able to go for a stage win, none of them able to support Consonni deep into the sprints. They'll aim for breakaways, but I think they would very much benefit from at least one rider who could realistically aim for something big even if as an outsider.

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EF Education-EasyPost
Lineup: Rigoberto Urán, Magnus Cort Nielsen, Ben Healy, Hugh Carthy, Stefan de Bod, Alberto Bettiol, Jonathan Caicedo and Jefferson Alexander Cepeda.
Rating: 10/10

EF is another team that I wouldn't touch. Although their late announcements sometimes get in my head I must admit that seeing the lineup it made perfect sense, as they will have two big figures at the Tour in Richard Carapaz and Neilson Powless which is the right call but the remaining leaders will be here and in great depth to chase results. Hugh Carthy has been in great form, and it's safe to say he is an outsider for the podium fight with what he's shown in recent months.

However EF won't have the pressure to attack. Rigoberto Urán and Jefferson Cepeda are both well capable of helping him in the mountains whilst likely having green card to chase wins in the mountainous days. Both Jonathan Caicedo and Stefan De Bod are also well capable of supporting him in this terrain.

To complete the lineup is Magnus Cort Nielsen who will have several opportunities to succeed in both hilly stage sprints and breakaways and is perfectly aligned with Trek and Jayco's presence of Pedersen and Matthews who will have the same goal. Ben Healy may have raced too much this spring to aim strongly at the Tour but in the first two weeks he will have several days that are ideal for his type of riding. Alberto Bettiol is also well capable of netting a stage win in the same set of days if he finds good form, if not he will serve as a domestique for Carthy on the flat stages.

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EOLO-Kometa:
Lineup: Vincenzo Albanese, Davide Bais, Mattia Bais, Erik Fetter, Lorenzo Fortunato, Francesco Gavazzi, Mirco Maestri and Diego Pablo Sevilla.
Rating: 8/10

EOLO have their feet on the ground, and I support their thinking into the race. Lorenzo Fortunato has finished fifth at the Tour of the Alps and won the Vuelta a Asturias recently, he's clearly on tremendous form but is not aiming for the GC. Chasing a stage and possibly the KOM jersey is the right choice and having that mindset from the start will provide him more opportunities and less fatigue for the final week. The team won't have to work, and Vincenzo Albanese should have opportunities in some hilly days taking into consideration the form he's shown.

It's a team that isn't being carried away by Fortunato's recent success. They'll be a constant presence in the breakaways, although I do find it weird the absence of Giovanni Lonardi who could perform in the flat sprints in such a modest field.

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Green Project-Bardiani CSF-Faizanè
Lineup: Filippo Fiorelli, Luca Covili, Davide Gabburo, Filippo Magli, Martin Marcellusi, Henok Mulubrhan, Alessandro Tonelli and Samuele Zoccarato.
Rating: 10/10

There would be little to change here. Bardiani have Filippo Fiorelli who can be an interesting card for the hilly stages, Samuele Zoccarato who can chase a result from a breakaway, Henok Mulubrhan will bring visibility to the team and Martin Marcellusi will also bring some after his surprising performance at Eschborn-Frankfurt. He must've been a last-minute addition, the team were smart and come with momentum to the Giro, the goal is breakaways and a possibly result from Fiorelli and I can't say there's anything I'd change.

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Groupama-FDJ
Lineup: Bruno Armirail, Lars van den Berg, Ignatas Konovalovas, Stefan Küng, Fabien Lienhard, Rudy Molard, Thibaut Pinot and Jake Stewart.
Rating: 7/10

An interesting Groupama. Stefan Küng is the main card here, he's a surprise at the startline after featuring in the Tour over the last few years. Dare I say Groupama should've stuck to that plan as David Gaudu will aim for the podium and needs his right-hand man. Unless Küng is already planned to abandon the race in the second week I don't see much purpose for him to be here. Of course the time-trials are a big goal but with Ganna, Evenepoel and Roglic locked in for months he would know his chances of winning one are thin. He'd more likely win a hilly stage at the Tour even with no time-trial for him to perform in.

It'll be interesting to see what he can do. Unlike other French teams Groupama have put in some cards to chase stages, besides Küng. Pinot will aim for the mountains, Rudy Molard can possibly go for some hilly stages as will Bruno Armirail, and Jake Stewart will have chances to lead the team in the sprints.

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INEOS Grenadiers
Lineup: Tao Geoghegan Hart, Thymen Arensman, Laurens de Plus, Filippo Ganna, Salvatore Puccio, Pavel Sivakov, Ben Swift and Geraint Thomas.
Rating: 10/10

INEOS is another team I would not touch. It's well made, the riders chosen are the right ones and they have not had bad luck with recent injuries or illnesses. Ben Swift and Salvatore Puccio come in as veterans in the scene to protect the team in the flat days. Ganna is in the right Grand Tour because of the time-trials and increased support value he may have here, and Thomas is also in the right Grand Tour because of the Tour de France's lack of time-trialing.

Hart being here is ideal taking the momentum he's carrying, with a great spring including the victory at the Tour of the Alps. All the riders that raced there will be at the Giro plus Ganna. The team functioned perfectly there and it's a matter of continuing what they have rolling. Laurens de Plus and Pavel Sivakov will be of great support in the mountains, Thymen Arensman could be as well however I believe he will soon return to his best form and could also aim for the GC.

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Intermarché-Circus-Wanty
Lineup: Lorenzo Rota, Sven Erik Bystrom, Niccolò Bonifazio, Laurens Huys, Arne Marit, Simone Petilli, Laurenz Rex and Rein Taaramäe.
Rating: 9/10

Chasing stages is the obvious target here. Intermarché were smart, their late signing of Niccolò Bonifazio was victorious in the Giro di Sicilia and is a realistic contender for the flat sprints in this field, with Arne Marit a worthy leadout. The rest of the team is focused in the hilly stages. Their main cards have been saved for the Tour, but they can realistically dream of a win.

Rota, Bystrom and Petilli are all strong puncheurs and they have some suiting stages. They all have slightly different attributes which can see them use interesting tactics. Rein Taaramäe is at his best a strong climber, he comes in without GC ambitions and with some luck could fight for a stage win in the first week where he stands better chances.

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Israel-Premier Tech
Lineup: Domenico Pozzovivo, Sebastian Berwick, Simon Clarke, Marco Frigo, Derek Gee, Matthew Riccitello, Stephen Williams and Mads Würtz Schmidt.
Rating: 7/10

Israel are in a complicated situation. They've dedicated themselves to leaders as Jakob Fuglsang, Chris Froome, Giacomo Nizzolo and Dylan Teuns who have not performed this spring. It's not an easy situation for a team whose big names are all well within their 30's in a peloton where the new generations are taking over. Domenico Pozzovivo has hit 40 and he leads the team. If he races to eighth like last year with Intermarché it'd be a good result, he will surely be motivated but the questions are over his consistency. However his persistence and quality in the brutal mountain days may see him surge in the final week.

Otherwise the team is chasing stage wins as it's main goal, but it has deployed some good weapons. Simon Clarke and Stevie Williams will be contenders for results on the hilly days which there will be quite a few. I think they can realistically aim for a stage win, but they will be rather absent from the sprints and time-trials and isolated in the mountains. Still I think they chose the correct set of riders, if only they had brought one of their sprinters I would rate it higher.

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Jumbo-Visma
Lineup: Primoz Roglic, Edoardo Affini, Koen Bouwman, Rohan Dennis, Jos van Emden, Michel Hessmann, Sepp Kuss and Jan Tratnik.
Rating: 6/10

I rate Jumbo low, but that is not all their fault. Tobias Foss and Robert Gesink have pulled out because of Covid-19, and Wilco Kelderman has been injured and is refocusing on the Tour. That is three climbers that would be crucial for the support of Primoz Roglic in the mountains, in a team that now finds itself more vulnerable. Quick-Step isn't a luxurious mountain team too so it's not critical, but Jumbo won't be able to overwhelm the competition.

Sepp Kuss should be able to ride well in the mountains, if so compensate for the team's absences. Jan Tratnik could also prove incredibly valuable although the high mountains won't be his favoured terrain. The team has a bit of structure with Edoardo Affini and Jos van Emden the engines for the flat days. Koen Bouwman was brilliant last year but has been under the radar this season and is an uncertainty, both he and Rohan Dennis will need to show good form to support the team otherwise they will be dropped when things heat up in the climbs. The likes of Thomas Gloag and Gijs Leemreize would be options for me to replace the latter two.

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Movistar Team
Lineup: Fernando Gaviria, Will Barta, Max Kanter, José Joaquín Rojas, Einer Rubio, Óscar Rodríguez, Albert Torres and Carlos Verona.
Rating: 9/10

Movistar are well structured. I like the lineup, it misses in my opinion Iván Sosa who would ideally try to save himself and try to net a stage win in the moutnains. The team have two modest but focused leaders with set goals. Fernando Gaviria is the right choice to be the headliner at the Giro where he should be able to fight and maybe even win a sprint stage. He will have a leader as Max Kanter is present, and both Albert Torres and José Joaquín Rojas are capable of providing good support in this terrain.

Enric Mas, Matteo Jorgenson and the classics riders head for the Tour where they should be able to perform well. Here it is Einer Rubio who is given the chance to lead the team as he tests his GC capacity and he's been given support, with Will Barta, Óscar Rodríguez and most importantly Carlos Verona ready to help in the mountains. Verona and Barta should also have freedom deeper into the race and will have chances to fight for a breakaway win in the mountains and hills respectively when the support for Rubio isn't as important.

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Team Arkéa Samsic
Lineup: Warren Barguil, Maxime Bouet, David Dekker, Thibault Guernalec, Michel Ries, Alan Riou, Clément Russo and Alessandro Verre.
Rating: 3/10

More could be done. Yes Arkéa are French, but it's the same situation that I see with Cofidis, it's a one-sided team that fully depends on one rider who doesn't have high chances of a triumph, whilst a lot is being saved for the Tour where not all those being saved will have space. Warren Barguil is the sole leader of the team, but he has been ill recently and his Giro participation was anything but assured. He'll look for opportunities in the hilly stages and breakaways but I also have a sense that his form will have to grow throughout the race - not ideal.

The team has a few quality riders but not ones who can realistically contest a stage here. Even outside the team's main leaders the likes of Luca Mozzato, Cristián Rodríguez, Jenthe Biermans, Amaury Capiot... At least one of them would make it a better team in my eyes, one able to be in the spotlight more often and enter more days with ambitions.

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Team Corratec - Selle Italia
Lineup: Valerio Conti, Nicolas Dalla Valle, Stefano Gandin, Alessandro Iacchi, Alexander Konychev, Charlie Quarterman, Veljko Stojni´c and Karel Vacek.
Rating: 8/10

Corratec's presence at the Giro is already a goal achieved in itself, it's the most modest team at the start but they don't start without ambitions. Breakaways are obviously the big goal and with no doubt they'll try to be there everyday. I feel like they can't aim for much more but the presence of Valerio Conti can have them dream of a stint in the KOM jersey early on no doubt.

Nicolás Tivani and Attilio Viviani could feature in the sprints, I would rate the team higher if they were taking into consideration this is a massive goal, but simultaneously I understand that the team is small and can't afford to have all it's leaders absent from competition later on recovering from the Giro.

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Team DSM
Lineup: Andreas Leknessund, Jonas Iversby Hvideberg, Niklas Märkl, Marius Mayrhofer, Florian Strok, Martijn Tusveld, Alberto Dainese and Harm Vanhoucke.
Rating: 8/10

The team have two clear leaders now in Romain Bardet and Sam Welsford who are aiming at the Tour de France. Max Poole and Oscar Onley are also being saved, which in this case I understand. I think DSM chose an appropriate team, Andreas Leknessund will be a good stage hunter in breakaways for the hilly days. Harm Vanhoucke is a wildcard, I personally think he's capable of taking a win but needs his good form which doesn't come often.

Alberto Dainese is the leader of the team aiming for a stage win in the sprints. He has Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race winner Marius Mayrhofer riding behind him, I think both can have their own chances as the sprint stages vary in difficulty. It's a young team - as always - but I think the idea is the correct one.

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Team Jayco AlUla
Lineup: Michael Matthews, Alessandro De Marchi, Eddie Dunbar, Michael Hepburn, Lukas Pöstleberger, Callum Scotson, Campbell Stewart and Filippo Zana.
Rating: 7/10

I've realized Michael Matthews does not have a leadout. Groenewegen, Mezgec and Yates will hunt success at the Tour which is understandable, and so this lineup makes sense to me. Michael Matthews hunts wins in the many hilly days, he may luck out as the other big points jersey contender is Mads Pedersen who also has a team willing to sacrifice itself for him and both can climb very well. This can work for the Australian, who has a few riders to support him on these stages, but in the pure sprints I reckon he'll struggle.

Alessandro De Marchi and Filippo Zana are both good contenders for hilly days and are both home riders, this fits the plan well. The one piece I worry is Eddie Dunbar. The team has been keen on placing him as leader for the Giro and he's built up towards it. Whilst ambition is not usually a problem I think in this case he should chase stage wins and save his legs in the opening week. At best a Top10 is what he can achieve, but honestly I think the competition is too strong for that to happen. A team like Jayco can't settle for something like a Top15, the team is certainly not built to support him and a stage win (or KOM jersey) would fit much better.

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Trek - Segafredo
Lineup: Amanuel Ghebreigzabhier, Daan Hoole, Alex Kirsch, Bauke Mollema, Mads Pedersen, Toms Skujins, Natnael Tesfatsion and Otto Vergaerde.
Rating: 10/10

Whilst heartbreaking for him, the absence of Giulio Ciccone makes this team fit better in my opinion. Trek worked perfectly last Vuelta and here I find the same kind of team. He's in my opinion the main candidate for the points classification, having a strong sprint, climbing really well and being very consistent and not afraid of breakaways. With him on board the team can fully focus on one objective and hence be more efficient.

Behind him Bauke Mollema can hunt for stage wins, but he and everyone else can support Pedersen's ambitions. Daan Hoole and Alex Kirsch will be his leadout in the flat days, Otto Vergaerde the breakaway chaser, whilst Mollema, Toms Skujins and Eritrean duo of Amanuel Ghebreigzabhier and Natnael Tesfatsion will be able to work on the hilly days with flat finales where he may not have to deal with a lot of the fast men who'll struggle. In my mind a smart opinion with a clear goal and a proper leader - who's had a brilliant classics campaign.

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UAE Team Emirates
Lineup: João Almeida, Pascal Ackermann, Alessandro Covi, Davide Formolo, Ryan Gibbons, Brandon McNulty, Diego Ulissi and Jay Vine.
Rating: 4/10

Every time I see a UAE lineup without Tadej Pogacar I see a boat without a captain. Funnily there is a captain but one who seeks a goal that is in my opinion completely irrelevant. UAE chase UCI points, it is important for them, even if it means sacrificing some results. See several races last year - the Volta a Catalunya for example - where João Almeida himself lost the overall classification as the team did not want to potentially sacrifice Juan Ayuso's fourth place. The team has built a block for Pogacar with a few quality and versatile riders, outside of it there is no block and around a dozen riders have their own free reign.

João Almeida is the leader and a podium contender. UAE however have on paper four leaders. Two of them are Jay Vine who's coming in to test his GC abilities in a Grand Tour and coming back from injury, and the other is Brandon McNulty who was a last-minute addition. In recent interviews there has been no indication that the three will work towards a common goal. I believe both Vine and McNulty could thrive as stage hunters and support Almeida in the mountains - who himself has good time-trialing skills, a great third week recovery ability and good form. Both could also do very well in the GC on their own if they are consistent, but that's a big but.

Outside of them come three Italian puncheurs who will with no doubt also have their own desires to win stages who are Davide Formolo, Alessandro Covi and Diego Ulissi. And then there is Pascal Ackermann, who at this point will not be a favourite for the sprints and will not have a leadout. Completing the lineup is Ryan Gibbons the only rouleur in the team, but the team will either support Ackermann or Almeida in the flat stages, leaving one of them exposed - without mentioning Vine and McNulty. This amount of depth can work wonders if everyone is motivated but it will be necessary to take several wins. If everyone starts rowing in different directions the team won't be able to support any of it's leaders.