How a calculated risk won Visma the Giro: "There was a chance Carapaz would gamble and Del Toro wouldn't know what to do"
Cycling
The stage 20 of 2025 Giro d'Italia, which featured the returning giant Colle delle Finestre, will be remembered for many reasons. The tactical chess between Isaac del Toro and Richard Carapaz, the brilliant Wout Van Aert, and the fairy tale of Simon Yates are just a few of the many points that will be debated for many years to follow.
Ultimately, Visma | Lease a Bike were the biggest winners of the day with a pixel-perfectly executed strategy to turn the race upside down. However the overall victory of Yates did not come of it's own accord. Through his consistency in previouis nineteen stages, Yates survived all the chaos and havoc that got the best of pre-race favourites Primoz Roglic and Juan Ayuso, but still sat only third overall, more than a minute behind pink jersey Isaac del Toro.
"Until the seventeenth stage, Simon had been in second place behind leader Del Toro. Until then, there was less focus on Simon, but we realized there was a possibility Del Toro would focus more on Carapaz after Simon lost his second place," revealed Visma's DS Marc Reed how their daring maglia rosa coup come to life in an interview for Wieler Revue.
"We also thought there was a chance Carapaz would gamble on the Finestre and Del Toro wouldn't know exactly what to do. We mainly wanted to create a situation where that could happen. One way to do that was to get riders into the early breakaway, so Simon could still have someone with him in the 25 kilometers or so after the summit of the Finestre."
That prediction turned out to be 100% accurate, as the Ecuadorian tested his younger Mexican rival, but could not get a decisive advantage and so the two sat up. Suddenly, Yates was the one to make his move, and one of his accelerations ended up without a reply as Carapaz and Del Toro were too locked into their duel.
The second half of Visma's plan also went to a point as they managed to get a satellite rider up the road. And not just any name, but Wout Van Aert, a man that contributed significantly to Tadej Pogacar's defeat at the 2022 Tour de France. "Having Wout in the breakaway was a bonus," Reef confirms.
And the peloton would eventually turn out to simply not be strong enough to control the escaped group. "UAE was riding behind with only Baroncini. He had to control a group of thirty riders, which kept the gap growing. When EF Education-EasyPost decided to help, Baroncini dropped out again. When, at one point, a number of EF riders overpaced on a descent, they had to stop again. The gap between the leaders kept growing."
Simon Yates on Colle delle Finestre
Ace called 'Wout Van Aert'
All that played into the hands of Visma who now only needed for Yates to get rid of his rivals. "We knew: if Wout could start the Finestre with an eight-minute lead, there's a good chance he'd survive all the way to the summit. Several tactical factors made this denouement possible, but it all starts with having faith that it's possible to turn around."
And so, Yates finally settled unfinished business with Giro d'Italia which lasted since 2018. "It was almost meant to be, and that's what makes cycling so beautiful. This Giro d'Italia finale is, for me, the story of the year. It had the chance to put that day right in 2018, and it did so in a way that will forever capture the imagination."
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Ondrej ZhasilCycling Journalist
Ondřej Zhasil is a cycling journalist at CyclingUpToDate and has been part of the team since 2023. He is based in Ostrava, the third-largest city in the Czech Republic, and covers professional cycling across the main UCI competitions, including the Tour de France, the Giro d’Italia, and La Vuelta a España. A key focus of his work is startlist analysis and pre-race coverage, where he examines team selections, rider line-ups, and tactical scenarios ahead of major events.
Alongside WorldTour coverage, Ondřej has developed specific expertise in junior cycling and in racing across East Asia, including competitions in China and Japan. He also maintains a broad working knowledge of other disciplines and levels, including cyclocross, while continuing to expand his understanding of mountain bike racing.
Ondřej holds a bachelor’s degree in Mathematics and Physics, which supports his analytical, data-driven approach to performance and race analysis. In his reporting, he regularly uses ProCyclingStats for results, statistics, and historical context. He places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available.
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- It doesnt take a genius to understand that Pogi is 1 level above and Pogi is younger that Jonas, so Jonas will not win under ordinary circumstances. Pogi has to crack hard for Jonas to win. It doesn't matter whether you defend Jonas or not , facts remain facts. Jonas himself says his numbers are better than 2022/2023, so Jonas is more or less optimized and we are just see the stochastic variation due to other factors. I think he will retire along with Pedersen in WC denmarkabstractengineer13-11-2026
- They only raced each other during the 2026 Tour, but here's a few metrics to look at. Stage 3 (Granollers to Les Angles): Pogačar won the stage, finishing 2 seconds ahead of Vingegaard (2nd). Del Toro finished 24 seconds behind Stage 6 (Pau to Gavarnie-Gedre / Col du Tourmalet): Pogačar won solo, Vingegaard finished 2nd (losing 2:38), and Del Toro finished 3rd (at +2:57, finishing 19 seconds behind Vingegaard). Here, Jonas Vingegaard outclimbed Isaac del Toro by 19 seconds on the mountain stageawp13-11-2026
- your clinging to the past. Jonas was dropped by del toro many times last year and jonas never managed a climbing numers del toro did in dauphine last year -entire year. Trend is also evident theres no discussion your living in the past, its beent he same with jonas for many years now and only developing, meanwhile del toro is rising and developing greatly. This is all obvious stuff and im not even a del toro fan. No point discussing numbers or this i suspect you dont watch much now but rather think its 2022 still cause this aint hard.miguel13-11-2026
- We can go through metrics if you like, Del Toro, who I do admire and support, is not on the same level as Jonas just yet. You will see that in early 2027 if they have any crossover races. I do hope they both race the Giro. You are correct though, Jonas is getting older and will not be able to hand on much longer. I see 2027 as a good year for him. Obviously behind Tadej though.awp13-11-2026
- What wins? Are you LA operating under a pseudonym?mij13-11-2026
- My point is this - Tadej, Remco, Seixas are all the outliers. Many riders don’t hit their peak until 28. It’s way too early to write him off. And the pogi slo guy that hates him - he’s also immature. Ayuso needs time.mij13-11-2026
- Then you need to use ur eyes or head if you have cause del toro already dropped jonas two times and beat him in tdf stages already this year.. Del toro climbed(dauphine) better numbers than jonas did all year too. So ur feelings and wishful thinking doesnt amtter del toro himself has already surpassed jonas infact just facts. Its also very evident for anyone objective that Jonas is declining alot, its just the truth and super obvious.miguel13-11-2026
- None of those victories stand, so there's that,wrsty13-11-2026
- No surprise there; it is British Sycling, yes, with an S
Rafionain-Glas12-11-2026 - I like Del Toro but he's not on the level of Jonas, by a large margin.awp12-11-2026
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