Stage 1: Venaria Reale - Torino, 140 kilometers
Stage race starts off with a short and explosive stage into Torino. The Grande Partenza takes place in the city of Venaria Reale in 2024 and the first day is open to many scenarios. Climbers, puncheurs and sprinters can all be in the mix. The day features three ascents and the last of which is the famous Superga, 5 kilometers at 7.5% which summit with 20 kilometers to go. It will be far enough from the finish that the race can be reshaped afterwards, to attribute the first pink jersey. A climb close to the finish, which is 1.5 kilometers at 8.6%, could see the decisive attack for the stage win.
Stage 2: San Francesco Al Campo - Santuario di Oropa, 150 kilometers
Stage 2 is the first day in the mountains and it will not be easy by any means. 150 kilometers on the menu, the first half flat, the second with five ascents. Two uncategorized and two categorized - 5.7Km at 5.1% and 3.2Km at 6.5%, which will be a warm-up for the first summit finish of the race.
This will be at the Santuario di Oropa. Last used in 2017 with Tom Dumoulin's epic win, it'll be a climb well known in the peloton. It's 11.8 kilometers at 6.1%, but the first third is considerably less steep. We'll see gradients close to 10% for several climbs towards the scenic finish, and perhaps the first meaningful gaps of the race.
Stage 3: Novara - Fossano, 165 kilometers
Stage 3 is the first day that can be properly called to be one for the sprinters, however far from a simple one. Most of the day is flat, but the run-up to Fossano will not be easy. Summiting with 1.5 kilometers to go, the riders will tackle a 1.8-kilometer ascent at 4.2% which can take out a few riders from contention.
Stage 4: Acqui Terme - Andora, 187 kilometers
Stage 4 will take the riders in the Ligurian region. Some call this a mini Milano-Sanremo and with good reason. The final kilometers follow roads familiar to the peloton, and the finale in Andora takes place inbetween two of the Tre Capi.
Stage 5: Genova - Lucca, 176 kilometers
Stage 5 will be another day for the fast men. After start that was anything but friendly to the sprinters, the fifth day of racing also presents little obstacles to a bunch sprint in Lucca.
Stage 6: Viareggio - Rapolano Terme, 177 kilometers
Stage 6 ill be a very tricky day, one that perhaps flows under the radar of many. After some climbing there will be some definition in the overall classification but on this day the tension will be very high. Three gravel sectors total over 10 kilometers of off-road riding. It will be a nervous day for many, one that can have many outcomes at the end of the day as well.
Stage 7 (ITT): Foligno - Perugia, 40 kilometers
The seventh day of racing presents the first and longest time-trial of the race. 37 kilometers between the cities of Foligno and Perugia, the route will be 40 kilometers and end with some climbing. An ITT where pacing will matter the world.
Stage 8: Spoleto - Prati di Tivo, 153 kilometers
Stage 8 sees the riders finally return to the mountains. It's a very hard day too with climbing from start to finish. The brutal summit finish at Prati di Tivo is more commonly known to headline the Tirreno-Adriatico route, but this year it'll have a pink jersey to award at it's summit. After a day in the mountains, the 14.6-kilometer ascents that averages 7% will create differences with no doubt.
Stage 9: Avezzano - Naples, 206 kilometers
The final day of the first week sees the riders back into Napoli. After the success of the two past years, the city hosts another stage finish with a similar formula. A day for the sprinters but with enough climbing to launch questions.
Stage 10: Pompei - Cusano Mutri, 141 kilometers
Stage 10 opens up the second week and presents a rather unknown summit finish. A short day on the bike only with 141 kilometers, but it ends at Cusano Mutri, an 18-kilometer climb which has 18 kilometers in distance but gradients that are often quite harder than the 5.6% average suggests.
Stage 11: Foiano di val Fortore - Francavilla al Mare, 203 kilometers
Stage 11 sees the riders close to the Adriatic sea, a transition day of 203 kilometers into Francavilla al Mare where the sprinters will have the chance to shine.
Stage 12: Martinsicuro - Fano, 183 kilometers
Stage 12 from Martinsicuro to Fano will be a tricky day. It features six categorized climbs - all of them small - and a few others. It's a day that is not too hard for a sprinter to take the win, but the combination of ascents will see breakaway specialists and classics riders try out their luck.
Stage 13: Riccione - Centro, 179 kilometers
Stage 13 is the flattest day of the race with no doubt. The 179 kilometers between Riccione and Centro will pass by quite quickly for sure, without a single hilltop on the day to slow down the riders or be a serious challenge to a possible bunch sprint.
Stage 14 (ITT): Castiglione delle Stiviere - Desenzano del Garda, 31 kilometers
Stage 14 is the second and final individual time-trial of the race. It is 31 kilometers long and flatter than the first. It will create some more gaps before the riders finally reach the Alps.
Stage 15: Manerba del Garda - Livigno, 222 kilometers
That will happen on stage 15. A Giro classic (when it comes to the formula, not the location). With 220 kilometers in distance it's the longest day of the race and perhaps the toughest too. Starting in Manerba del Garda the riders will find a tough start, but it's the final combination of climbs that will cause serious damage. The Forcola di Livigno is 18 kilometers long at over 7% and it's closely followed by a summit finish just above town of 8.1 kilometers at 6.6%. Both climbs summit at over 2300 meters of altitude and it will certainly be a hugely demanding day.
Stage 16: Livigno - Santa Cristina Valgardena, 202 kilometers
The 16th stage kickstarts the third week and in what way. The start in Livigno is very explosive and soon on features the mythical Passo dello Stelvio - climbed from Bormio. 202 kilometers on the menu, the Stelvio will likely be a warm-up however. The stage ends with a quick combination of two completely different climbs. The Passo Pinei which is 23.4 kilometers at 4.7% and the summit finish at Santa Cristina Val Gardena which is 7.6 kilometers at 6.1%.
Stage 17: Selva di Val Gardena - Passo Brocon, 154 kilometers
Stage 17 is another contender for queen stage. 154 kilometers with five tough ascents. Right from the start the Passo Sella (8.9Km; 7.4%) kickstarts the day brutally and up to over 2200 meters of altitude. Follow the Passo Rolle, Passo Gobbera and the ascent on two different sides of the Passo del Brocon. The last coincides with the finish, with 12.2 kilometers at 6.4%.
Stage 18: Fiera di Primiero - Padova, 166 kilometers
As tradition, the final week features a pan-flat day between the mountains. This time around it takes place in the Veneto region between Fiera di Primiero and Padova. It's 166 kilometers will suit the sprinters, but breakaways have often succeeded on this kind of day...
Stage 19: Mortegliano - Sappada, 164 kilometers
Stage 19 is a mixed day. Most likely to the breakaway opportunists, it lacks serious climbing to make difference among the big GC riders. However, the combination of three climbs before the finish in Sappada will ensure that this remains a day for the climbers.
Stage 20: Alpago - Bassano del Grappa, 184 kilometers
The final mountain stage of the race, a quite different one than the normal. Besides the steep early Muro di Cal' del Poggio, the riders will have to climb Monte Grappa twice before the final at Bassano del Grappa. One of the Giro's most epic climbs will be a gruesome final GC challenge, with the climbers having to ascent it's 8% average slopes throughout 18 kilometers on two closely spaced occasions.
Stage 21: Rome - Rome, 126 kilometers
The riders fly into Rome for the final day of the competition, where they will face a circuit finish where the sprinters will have their final shot.
Overall classification
Tadej Pogacar - Not many words are needed. Pogacar is the ultra favourite, and perhaps the rider who has the least amount of riders at his level at the start of a Grand Tour since the Chris Froome years. If he avoids injuries and illnesses, it simply is virtually impossible for him to be beaten here. Not only does he not have a weak spot, but he is an entire level above the whole competition when it comes to climbing; whilst on stages like the time-trials and the gravel day he can also make the difference. UAE have left many quality riders at home and even gave room for a sprinter in the team, but Pogacar will likely not need an array of stars backing him up if he is at his regular level.
Geraint Thomas - His biggest rival perhaps is Geraint Thomas. The leader of INEOS Grenadiers found his best form at the perfect time last year and did a perfect Giro, losing the pink jersey only on the final competitive day. Hence, Thomas knows how to prepare for this race. He hasn't shown the form recently however, but I do trust that he's getting there. Good against the clock and with a very strong and experienced team, with no doubt he can lead INEOS into the podium or more if Pogacar abandons.
Thymen Arensman also comes as a podium contender if he is at his best level, as this year he will likely not have to support Thomas as much.
Ben O'Connor - O'Connor is a rather consistent rider in the stage-races and this year he is on fire. After finishing second at the Tour of the Alps, I also believe he's on good form. Decathlon are flying through the season and are the third team with the most UCI points; if they continue this good run than a podium is certainly in the cards. A modest team without big support names, but the Paret-Peintre brothers looked brilliant over the past few weeks and should be up there with him.
Romain Bardet - Fifth at the Tour of the Alps and then second at Liège-Bastogne-Liège, it is safe to say that Bardet is in great form and motivated. He comes in the position of leader at Team DSM and is an experienced Grand Tour contender, who loves the cold and altitude which the Giro often throws into the riders. His problem is that DSM is possibly the team that presents the lead support in the mountains for it's leader. Some due to Max Poole's injury, but Bardet will quickly be isolated in the mountains and his tactics will be limited.
Juan Pedro López - 'El Patron' won the Tour of the Alps in convincing fashion. Honestly, there was no luck. There is no question on why that's his nickname, he looks like a born leader and has a great tactical eye both for attacking and defending his GC. For two years - since he had his Giro breakthrough - he hadn't shown his best level, but it comes now just in time. His performance in the Alps was very strong and in Italy he aims for a strong final result. Trek will put a lot of focus on
Jonathan Milan which does not favour him, but he will be protected on the flat days because of that. However, López will also not have good support in the mountains, and the time-trials will certainly be a big hit for his chances of chasing a podium.
Antonio Tiberi - Tiberi has been a consistent rider this year, finishing eighth at the Volta a Catalunya and third at the Tour of the Alps. The Italian will lead Bahrain - Victorious; it's the first time he aims for a GC result in a Grand Tour but I have the belief that he will do well. The team decided to keep Wout Poels out - an unbelievable decision in my eyes - but the experienced Damiano Caruso will be another Top10 contender.
Alexey Lutsenko - Initially set to race the Tour de France, but a last-minute change to the Giro d'Italia. A smart choice I think, Lutsenko recently won the Giro d'Abruzzo and I think that he was in terrific form. I don't know if he still has it, but if so then he is a good contender for a strong GC result. Twice a Top10 at the Tour de France, he certainly can do and improve on that with this field if he is consistent and strong, and Astana sure does need the UCI points.
Daniel Martínez & Florian Lipowitz - BORA were the team whose lineup was the most surprising. No Sam Welsford or Emanuel Buchmann as initially expected, and no Lennard Kämna due to injury. The team comes in a huge mess, but one that can work in the right hands. Daniel Martínez on paper is the GC leader. After beating Remco Evenepoel twice in the Volta ao Algarve it looked like the Colombian was back, but ever since he's absent. Without a proper Grand Tour result in the past, it's hard to imagine him doing too much. Then there is Florian Lipowitz who just had an incredible breakthrough at the Tour de Romandie; finishing third and almost winning the queen stage. Can he be a GC contender? The team certainly will give him freedom, and what he can do will only be known during the race.
Cian Uijtdebroeks - Visma have had a rough spring... Cian Uijtdebroeks' Giro debut was supposed to go a bit under the radar under the spotlight of Wout van Aert, but that is now not the case. The team focuses on Olav Kooij for the sprints, but after the injuries and illnesses of most of it's leaders, there is pressure to perform at the Giro. Uijtdebroeks was incredibly consistent last year - his first as a pro - but this spring that streak ended in Catalunya where he was very hopeful. Not having raced since then, and being 21 years old, it puts into question his chances of a Top5. But I do trust the Dutch team to do good work and manage the Belgian well, he certainly can show his best level and if so he will be up there.
Eddie Dunbar - Seventh at the Giro last year, a great confirmation of his potential. This year however the Irishman has been nowhere near the same level. However, we know that he has been aiming for the Giro this whole time and I would not be surprised if he still comes up. Luke Plapp also has that potential on paper, but honestly he has not proven to be consistent yet to fight for a result in a Grand Tour.
Hugh Carthy - EF does not promise much ahead of the Giro to be honest. Carthy and Esteban Chaves may fight for a place in the Top10, if not then they will likely aim for stage wins. Simon Carr will probably be the team's most likely rider to succeed.
Einer Rubio - Many questions over Nairo Quintana, but he will not be contesting the GC with certainty as very little so far this year has gone according to plan. Einer Rubio already chased stage wins last year and succeeded, he will likely aim higher and test his GC skills fully this time around - also as Movistar's riders will all be looking towards the same pretty much, Nothing too flashy so far this year, but in this modest field I do believe a Top10 is a possibility.
Prediction Giro d'italia 2024 overall classification:
*** Tadej Pogacar
** Geraint Thomas, Ben O'Connor, Romain Bardet
* Thymen Arensman, Juan Pedro López, Antonio Tiberi, Alexey Lutsenko, Cian Uijtdebroeks
Pick: Tadej Pogacar
Points classification
The sprinters present in the race may actually have the tightest battle of the race. Of course not many will actually aim for the points classification, but it is good to mention the quality sprinters present in the race. I believe the main sprinters to take into consideration will be
Tim Merlier, Olav Kooij and
Jonathan Milan. If Pogacar does not win the classification himself, one of these three men should do so.
Kaden Groves, Phil Bauhaus, Juan Sebastián Molano, Caleb Ewan and DSM's
Fabio Jakobsen (with
Tobias Lund Andresen in the hillier days) headline a second row of sprinters.
In a third row we can count on
Danny van Poppel and
Max Kanter who come with freedom after their team's main sprinters are not present;
Biniam Girmay, Fernando Gaviria, Alberto Dainese, Ethan Vernon, Stanislaw Aniolkowski; and for a few hillier days we could see
Filippo Ganna and
Laurence Pithie also try and discuss it.
Prediction Giro d'italia 2024 point classification:
*** Jonathan Milan, Kaden Groves
** Tadej Pogacar, Olav Kooij, Tim Merlier
* Caleb Ewan, Biniam Girmay, Laurence Pithie
Pick: Jonathan Milan
