Preview. From the 6th to the 12th of March Tirreno-Adriatico will be on the road. Simultaneous to Paris-Nice, the Italian stage race sees the riders in central Italy for a whole week of hard racing.
Long stages are the ideal preparation for the spring classics, but the race also sees some of the best climbers, sprinters and time-trialists who are all looking for very high-level wins, in what is a highlight of the early-season.
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The seven stages see an opportunity for the time-trialists right on the opening day, three stages that should see the sprinters grab the victories, two where the puncheurs, classics riders and climbers can succeed, and a day for the pure climbers. All combined, it's a rough week of racing with the overall classification always being disputed by some of the best stage-racers in the world.
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Profiles & Route Tirreno-Adriatico 2023
The opening day of racing sees an individual time-trial in Lido di Camaiore. It is 11.5 kilometers in length, is pan-flat and will see the early gaps being created in the race, aswell as providing a big opportunity for the specialists.
With 209 kilometers on the menu, stage two will see a finale in Follonica which should suit the sprinters, however it features a 1.3Km ascent at 6% close to the finish which could mix things up. A hilly day at Tirreno-Adriatico, it should be one for the sprinters. The path to Foligno isn't easy however, with several ascents in the opening part of the day and 216 kilometers on the menu. It will be a good test of form for the fast men, those who are looking towards Milano-Sanremo mainly.
Stage 4 will be a perfect one for the puncheurs preparing for the Ardennes classics and possibly Milano-Sanremo. The climbers could have their day depending on how it's raced, but the ascent to Tortoreto will be raced three times in quick succession and it has 3.2 kilometers at 7%, an interesting challenge.
The fifth stage of the race is the queen stage. It is short in comparison to the previous ones, and it features climbing throughout the whole day, albeit without any meaningful difficulty all of them, except the final one. Almost 4000 meters of climbing, and the summit finish to Sarnano-Sassotetto features 13.2 kilometers at 7.2%, where the climbers will thrive.
Stage six sees a format that has become quite frequent at Tirreno-Adriatico. It is a stage where everything can be turnt on it's head, it doesn't feature any large mountain, but in the very steep and repeated ascents around Osimo the race can explode and put many under pressure. 1.4Km at 12.9%, 1.6Km at 5.9% and 1.3Km at 6.4% are the main details of the final circuit in which the stage will be decided.
The final day of interesting will be fast and furious. San Benedetto del Tronto will once again host the finale of the race and the final half of the stage is pan-flat, with a circuit that is ideal for the sprinters. However, the first half of the stage is very hilly with several hilltops where a strong breakaway can go up the road, and many riders will be looking for a last-minute charge.
Schedule expected for start and finish of all stages, CET time.
Stage 1: 12:50 - 16:00CET.
Stage 2: 10:45 - 16:00CET.
Stage 3: 10:30 - 16:00CET.
Stage 4: 10:20 - 16:00CET.
Stage 5: 11:25 - 16:00CET.
Stage 6: 11:30 - 16:30CET.
Stage 7: 12:15 - 16:30CET.
The Favourites
Jumbo-Visma - How much damage Jumbo can make. Realistically, all 7 riders could have a strong GC result - and this team lacks Vingegaard, Kruijswijk, Kuss and several others. Dylan van Baarle and Wout van Aert could maybe be discarded if they want to take it easy and work towards the classics. Koen Bouwman may be in domestique duty. However the team has Primoz Roglic, who's starting his season here by surprise but is known to have strong form right from day 1. The team counts with Wilco Kelderman who can take a leap back to his best level with Jumbo-Visma, and both Tiesj Benot and Attila Valter who have been on great form over the classics and can climb the high mountains quite well too.
UAE - Adam Yates was on point at the UAE Tour, winning the queen stage and proving his transition to UAE has gone well. A pure climber, he will be a big favourite. The team can also count on João Almeida however a very consistent figure. Brandon McNulty has looked far from his best this year still, but on a good level he would be a great third card.
Mikel Landa - Third last year, Mikel Landa has found his best form once again. He had tremendous results in Italy last year and this route suits him. He finished second to Pogacar at the Vuelta a Andalucia which was a strong point to his early season training, and with a strong team behind Bahrain have serious changes of doing damage throughout the week.
Jai Hindley & Aleksandr Vlasov - The climbers' team. Jai Hindley finds a great test to his form. With 15 days of racing he's yet to truly ride a mountain, at Tirreno he will have a chance and the time-trial won't be as relevant. As for Aleksandr Vlasov he is more rounded up, the Russian will have an important test as he looks to build up around the Giro d'Italia.
Thymen Arensman & Tom Pidcock - INEOS have Filippo Ganna who will be on too tough terrain to try and fight for a GC as he's done earlier in the year. Thymen Arensman will likely be the main option for the team, he has a point to prove if he wants the team's confidence as a leader at the Giro. Tom Pidcock would definitely be a big contender for the GC if he puts his mind to it, the hilly stages are perfect to him whilst he can definitely hold his own in the mountain stage.
Enric Mas - Despite only finish fifth at the Vuelta a Andalucia, that was because of a mistimed mechanical. Mas showed true form there by being the closest competitor to Tadej Pogacar. Here, if he finds the same form, he has a serious chance of taking his first major GC win.
The GC will feature more names. With the hilly stages, specially the sixth day, it can feature some classics riders towards the top. Hence Pidcock is a pick of mine, but you can not rule out Valentin Madouas - or as previously mentioned, Tiesj Benoot - all riders who can climb quite well despite being far from pure climbers. Madouas' teammate Thibaut Pinot could perhaps do something as well.
Giulio Ciccone looked very sharp at the Volta a Comunitat Valenciana and facing home roads throughout this week will be a very dangerous outsider. The likes of Ben O'Connor, Alexey Lutsenko and Guillaume Martin will also be present in the mountain stages surely as a possibility for the blue jersey.
Sprinters & Others
The race also brings in a heap of quality riders outside of the classics riders. In the sprinter field for example you'll find riders like Jasper Philipsen, Fabio Jakobsen, Dylan Groenewegen, Biniam Girmay, Fernando Gaviria, Phil Bauhaus, Mark Cavendish, Peter Sagan, Alberto Dainese, Juan Sebastián Molano, Naer Bouhanni, Matteo Moschetti and Giacomo Nizzolo.
As for the classics specialists who come here to prepare their spring goals you have Mathieu van der Poel, Greg van Avermaet, Magnus Sheffield, Michael Woods, Andrea Bagioli, Warren Barguil and Ales
Prediction Tirreno-Adriatico 2023 overall classification:
*** Adam Yates, Enric Mas, Mikel Landa
** Primoz Roglic, Aleksandr Vlasov, João Almeida, Tom Pidcock, Giulio Ciccone
* Wilco Kelderman, Tiesj Benoot, Jai Hindley, Thymen Arensman, Valentin Madouas, Ben O'Connor, Guillaume Martin
Pick: Adam Yates
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