Pedal Punditry #1 | Is Tadej Pogacar back at Jonas Vingegaard's level; Van der Poel and Van Aert's first battle; Best sprinter of 2024: Philipsen or Merlier?

In this week's Pedal Punditry we take a look Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert's first battle of the season; How Tadej Pogacar is matching Jonas Vingegaard's impressive start to the year; and who is the best sprinter of the 2024 season so far.

The Volta a Catalunya this week is being an absolute highlight and one man has taken the absolute spotlight. Tadej Pogacar was the main favourite for all three stages and sure enough he looked the strongest in all three. On the opening day, he was outsmarted by Israel - Premier Tech who had Nick Schultz sneak off the front. Pogacar sprinted to second behind, by far the strongest. On the summit finishes that followed up to Vallter 2000 and Port Ainé however he was completely unrivaled. The Slovenian has replicated the dominant performances of Jonas Vingegaard at Tirreno-Adriatico.

Whilst both riders seamlessly destroy their World Tour competition, the question lies on whether this year Pogacar will be able to match Vingegaard throughout the whole three weeks of the Tour de France, or even take the best of him - as he did in 2021. A difficult task, but one that Pogacar seeks and shows good signs. “When I look at my wattages, they are very good. The feeling on the bike is a lot better compared to previous years," he said following his win at Vallter 2000. His 81-kilometer solo win at Strade Bianche with minutes to spare was, if nothing else, an indicator for the UAE Team Emirates rider who was only starting his season there. 

At Milano-Sanremo he headlined the race as obvious, being the only attacking figure at the Poggio di Sanremo, but being unable to make the winning difference. However when the terrain gets tougher no-one this year has yet been able to even hold his wheel. At Vallter 2000, a climb finishing at 2146 meters in altitude, the Slovenian reportedly averaged around 6.23W/Kg for over 31 minutes.

Jonas Vingegaard is estimated to have ridden 6.68W/Kg for 26 minutes (at San Giacomo, Tirreno-Adriatico stage 5) and 6.64W/Kg for 27 minutes (at Monte Petrano, Tirreno-Adriatico stage 6). On paper more impressive numbers, but at lower altitude. At Tirreno Vingegaard was unmatched and put in huge time differences to the likes of Juan Ayuso and Jai Hindley (1:38 minutes on the road when combining both stages).

Whilst Pogacar's numbers are not as high, they are at altitude which plays a key difference, and is a very important factor at the Tour de France - specially as Vingegaard thrives in the high-mountain and high-altitude days. Pogacar won however 2:11 minutes on his closest competitor Mikel Landa over the two summit finishes of the Catalan race so far. Last year the Slovenian was very much above Vingegaard in March, delivering an almost psychologically damaging defeat at Paris-Nice with several stage wins. This year Vingegaard starts the season with better form. Unfortunately we will not have a direct battle between the two until the Grand Boucle as they follow largely different schedules.

Vingegaard will face Primoz Roglic and Remco Evenepoel at the Itzulia Basque Country and Criterium du Dauphiné, but judging by their climbing at Paris-Nice it does not look like for the time being they will be a direct threat to Tour de France victory. The duo's performances at the Giro d'Italia and Criterium du Dauphiné will be better gauges ahead of the Tour de France, but Pogacar seems to have evolved even further throughout the past few months and has started 2024 even stronger than some would imagine.

Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert last raced together at the Benidorm Cyclocross World Cup; but on the road they have not met since the Glasgow World Championships. 2023 was the year for van der Poel, but no so much for van Aert, and they were directly connected. At Paris-Roubaix the Belgian lost his chance for victory due to an untimely puncture, but van der Poel put his rival into second place at the cyclocross World Championships and the road race World Championships - two races that could've made the Team Visma | Lease a Bike's season.

However that has not taken van Aert down; and the exact opposite is what we appear to be seeing. The two follow completely different plans into the spring - where, due to Tadej Pogacar's absence, they are the main favourites to win both Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix. Van der Poel successfully concluded his CX season with a sixth World title in Tabor and has then taken a few weeks of rest; followed by a month of intense training ahead of his debut at the road in Milano-Sanremo, where he was 10th but the absolute key for teammates Jasper Philipsen's victory. Form was on point for the wearer of the rainbow bands, and he should be on the right track for the cobbles.

Van Aert made his debut in early February in Spain and has raced - and won - earlier than ever before on the road. He won a bunch sprint at the Volta ao Algarve but most importantly, succeeding in adding Kuurne - Bruxelles - Kuurne and was third at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. In both, Visma completely swarmed the competition with numbers and took the win then from creating their own race situations. Van Aert was not in prime form, he himself admitted, but it was enough to bring in the results. However even after a very successful weekend we did not see a relaxed Van Aert, but a focused one. This is because he has only two goals this spring: Win Tour of Flanders and/or Paris-Roubaix. After many near misses over the past few years, that is an absolute goal this year, and led him to not race the CX Worlds, and now also Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico - alongside Milano-Sanremo.

The Belgian follows a different preparation and has spent now three weeks at altitude in Mount Teide, Tenerife, training with Tiesj Benoot and Jan Tratnik - winner at Omloop. With the exception of an ill Christophe Laporte, the team looks set to battle this Friday at the E3 Saxo Classic which is the single most important preparation race ahead of Flanders. In here we will see the form that the two champions take into the cobbled classics block. The climbs of the Paterberg and Oude Kwaremont will be proper agonizing tests into this spring's most exciting events.

Usually it is difficult to assess who is the best sprinter in the peloton, because the art of sprinting involves so much more than just the sprint itself. Results often vary due to the quality of the riders' leadout, their own positioning and timing of their efforts. All-in-all a complex set of variables which in the end make every sprint a Russian roulette. However in 2023 it was safe to say that Jasper Philipsen was at the head of the game; winning four stages and the green jersey at the Tour de France within a total of 19 victories throughout the year.

2024 is a different year however, and with the charts back to 0 in January, a well-known man to Philipsen began to storm up the ranks. Before Philipsen even layed eyes on a bib, former teammates Tim Merlier had already five wins to his name this season - two at the Saudi Tour and three at the UAE Tour. The UAE Tour is the absolute early-season standard for sprinters, as most of the best in the peloton travel to the Middle East in search of the many pan-flat finales. Merlier won three out of the four, all three in almost complete chaos and lack of a leadout - he finished second in the fourth sprint with a slightly punctured rear tire. Meanwhile at the Opening Weekend, Jasper Philipsen failed to keep up with the best on both classics. The tide could be turning in the sprinter field, with a new king emerging.

But old habits die hard, and with a suicidal final corner divebomb, Jasper Philipsen glued himself to the wheel of Merlier on the second stage of Tirreno-Adriatico where the two met for the first time this year and then rode to victory. An impressive display, and a smack to those who were arguing that there was a new leading sprinter in the peloton. However both were in the back seat for the rest of the race; the Soudal - Quick-Step rider never again contesting a sprint, whilst Philipsen was second and fourth behind Jonathan Milan on stages 4 and 7. Milan may in the future contest this position as well, but it is early to say so.

The two battled at the Nokere Koerse but here Merlier hit back at Philipsen, taking the win head-on in the final cobbled climb to the Nokereberg. But Philipsen was not going to let his former teammate remain in the spotlight. An impressive maiden win at Milano-Sanremo was enough to impress the whole world; but it was in the absence of other top sprinters. A proven classics rider; Philipsen still has a position to defend among the fast men and the Classic Brugge-De Panne was an important location to do so. This afternoon another thrilling sprinted ensued and after a mid-sprint collision, Philipsen managed to make his way through a very tight spot and then sprinted powerfully to victory ahead of protesting Merlier. None were in the wrong, in my opinion, but it marked another round in these two riders' battle.

At the time being it seems like both are at a very similar level and we have been given an absolutely incredible spring plot between these two Belgian sprinters. The final and ultimate battle in months will most likely take place at Gent-Wevelgem, but there is no guarantee that both will be contesting for victory. Merlier will then head for the Giro d'Italia whilst Philipsen aims to thrive at the Tour de France once again.