ANALYSIS: Three keys to Jonas Vingegaard beating Tadej Pogacar at the 2025 Tour de France

The first major clash of the 2025 season between cycling’s two titans — Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar — has come and gone. The battleground was the Critérium du Dauphiné, and while Pogacar emerged victorious, the duel offered a wealth of insight ahead of this summer’s Tour de France.

From the opening stage, the intensity was clear. Both Team Visma | Lease a Bike and UAE Team Emirates - XRG wasted no time in laying down markers. An attack from Vingegaard with 6km to go shattered any hope of a sprint finish, forming a select group that included Pogacar, Remco Evenepoel, Mathieu van der Poel, and Santiago Buitrago.

That day — ultimately won by Pogacar — offered a first glimpse of Vingegaard’s surprisingly strong form. Having not raced since Paris–Nice three months prior, and with Pogacar dominating the spring classics, many expected the Slovenian to sweep the floor. Instead, Vingegaard proved he wasn’t just there to survive — he was there to fight.

By Stage 4, the Dane had even taken the overall lead following a strong performance in the individual time trial. But as the race hit the mountains, Pogacar’s class told once again, echoing the story of last year’s Tour. Still, Vingegaard limited his losses, finishing just 59 seconds down in the final GC — less than many had anticipated.

So, is the Tour wide open? Absolutely. But for Vingegaard to reclaim the yellow jersey in Paris, several things must go his way. Here are the three key factors that could tilt the balance back in his favour:

Pogacar’s explosive bursts on the climbs have been a consistent thorn in Vingegaard’s side. The Slovenian rarely waits — when the gradient bites, he attacks, often catching his rivals off guard. Vingegaard, by contrast, tends to follow rather than initiate, particularly on summit finishes.

If the Dane wants to take control of the Tour, especially on the long Alpine and Pyrenean climbs, he’ll need to improve his ability to match those surges — or, better yet, launch some of his own. A more proactive approach could prevent Pogacar from dictating every key moment in the high mountains.

Improving that top-end acceleration might be the single most important area for Vingegaard to address before July.

Pogacar's 2025 campaign has been intense. Having raced all four Monuments — Milano–Sanremo, Tour of Flanders, Paris–Roubaix, and Liège–Bastogne–Liège — as well as Strade Bianche and Flèche Wallonne, the Slovenian has barely had time to focus on his time trialling.

That lack of preparation showed at the Dauphiné, where Pogacar lost more time than expected in the Stage 4 ITT to both Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel. Afterward, he openly admitted he hadn’t spent much time on his TT bike at race pace.

If that weakness carries into July, it could present a golden opportunity for Vingegaard to claw back time and put Pogacar under real pressure heading into the mountains.

Finally, the team battle could prove decisive. Pogacar will arrive at the Tour with a formidable UAE line-up, likely headlined by Joao Almeida and Adam Yates. But Vingegaard’s support cast is equally impressive — perhaps even stronger on paper.

Team Visma | Lease a Bike is expected to bring Matteo Jorgenson, Sepp Kuss, Simon Yates, and Wout van Aert. Yates comes in hot after winning the Giro d’Italia with a spectacular ride on the Colle delle Finestre, while Van Aert looked close to his best during that race, having overcome early-season setbacks.

This quartet gives Vingegaard a real tactical advantage — provided they ride as a unified force. UAE has shown cracks in its Grand Tour management, occasionally relying too heavily on Pogacar’s brilliance. That was evident at the Giro, where their team was tactically exposed despite their leader’s talent.

If Visma can ride cohesively, isolate Pogacar, and take control of key stages, they’ll give their Danish leader the best possible chance of a third Maillot Jaune.

While Pogacar once again showed his supremacy in the Dauphiné, the margin wasn’t overwhelming — and Vingegaard proved he’s not far off. With improvements in his explosiveness, a sharper time trial, and strong team execution, the reigning Tour champion has every chance of flipping the script in July.

The stage is set for another unforgettable showdown. Cycling fans, buckle up.