OPINION | Jonas Vingegaard should not ride the 2026 Giro d’Italia

In recent days, several reports have hinted that Jonas Vingegaard is already confirmed to ride the 2026 Giro d’Italia, a move which could mark his debut at the Corsa Rosa with the aim of completing the set of the three Grand Tours, joining a historic elite that includes Eddy Merckx, Alberto Contador, and Bernard Hinault. However

Those reports indicate there is already an agreement with organizer RCS for the Dane to make his Giro debut in May 2026 as part of his season schedule. The decision looks rather obvious and has been heavily hinted at since the Dane's victory at the 2025 Vuelta a España.

At first glance, the idea that Vingegaard will target the Giro d’Italia — the only Grand Tour missing after he won the Tour de France in 2022 and 2023 and the Vuelta a España in 2025 — seems a natural sporting ambition. However, from a strategic standpoint in preparing for the 2026 Tour de France and in direct rivalry with Tadej Pogacar, this choice looks like a mistake.

My argument rests on what has happened in recent years as both riders shaped their season calendars around cycling’s biggest goal, the Tour de France. To assess it, we need to separate performance strategy from simple palmarès ambition.

In 2022 and 2023, Vingegaard won the Tour de France in back-to-back editions, establishing himself as one of the peloton’s premier Grand Tour rider and, on paper, the benchmark to beat. In 2023 in particular, he controlled the race from early stages, dominated key aspects such as the stage 16 time trial, and displayed the form to distance Pogacar at decisive moments. Data published by ProCyclingStats confirms Vingegaard was superior across several parts of the race, including time trial performance and crucial mountain stages, when he arrived with Tour-specific preparation.

After those two victories, however, both riders’ trajectories shifted noticeably. In 2024, Pogacar opted to race the Giro d’Italia and the Tour de France in the same season and achieved the rare double, the first time since 1998 that a rider won both in a single year.

That Giro ahead of the Tour appears to have served as a targeted springboard for the Slovenian, albeit with the expected physical cost of racing a Grand Tour before July. At the same time, Vingegaard crashed at Itzulia Basque Country, a factor widely cited by analysts as compromising his Tour preparation and reducing his level against Pogacar in July.

The pattern repeated in 2025. After another season disrupted by physical issues and setbacks, Vingegaard did not reach the Tour start in ideal form. The outcome was another Pogacar victory at the Tour de France, this time by more than four minutes on GC, including several stage wins and dominant control of the race. The Guardian itself highlighted that Pogacar sealed his fourth Tour title with a performance marked by consistency and superiority in critical race moments.

One aspect that drew less attention in broader coverage was the clear fatigue Pogacar showed at the end of that 2025 Tour de France. According to specialist reports, and as he acknowledged after the final stage, the Slovenian finished the race deeply tired, physically and mentally, which is logical after three weeks of extraordinary effort on top of a punishing spring campaign fighting Mathieu van der Poel for several Monuments, a program he is set to repeat in 2026.

This is precisely the crux of my argument: if Vingegaard devoted 2026 to Tour-specific preparation, avoiding the toll of a Grand Tour like the Giro d’Italia, he could reach July better equipped to fight Pogacar head-to-head and, crucially, to exploit the fatigue the Slovenian will likely accumulate in chasing Flanders and Liège again and going after a first win at Sanremo and Roubaix.

Racing the Giro entails, physically and physiologically, three weeks of high-demand competition in the mountains, time trials, and constant tension. Even the world’s best pay for that load with extended recovery, calendar adjustments, and managing lingering niggles. In the context of a single, specific target like the Tour de France, that accumulation of kilometers and efforts can create a freshness deficit at the key moment: the final two weeks of July, when most Tours are decided.

By contrast, Pogacar has shown in recent seasons that he can tolerate intense calendars with multiple high-level spring objectives without compromising peak performance in July. His participation in major Classics, lead-up stage races, and extra efforts has not translated into a meaningful drop in Tour form, to the point of accumulating four titles and becoming a by-word for competitive consistency in modern cycling. That resilience to cumulative fatigue and his ability to race hard before the Tour without losing sharpness appear to give him a psychological and physical edge over rivals who must prioritize a single seasonal goal.

It is entirely understandable that completing victories in all three Grand Tours is a major sporting ambition. Winning the Giro d’Italia, Tour de France, and Vuelta a España places any rider in a rare historical bracket of versatility and exceptional strength. However, the strategic question is: does that maximize your chances of beating your main rival in the year’s most important race? For me, the answer is no.

If Vingegaard wants to defeat Pogacar in July 2026 at the Tour de France, his best chance would have been to design a season where specific preparation and load management were geared solely toward reaching the Tour in optimum condition, capitalizing on any physical weakness his rival showed the previous year. Instead, by choosing to race the Giro — an event that demands immense physical and mental resources just six weeks before the Grande Boucle — he is opting to dilute his realistic chances of delivering a higher performance in July.