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PREVIEW | Tour de France 2024 stage 9 - The gravel stage! Pogacar, Vingegaard, Evenepoel and Roglic fight to survive dangerous day
CyclingSunday, 07 July 2024 at 14:54
The final stage of the first week at the Tour de France takes place this Sunday. The famous gravel stage that has been talked up for months is now finally upon us. We preview stage 9 of the Tour de France, a day where the race may not be won but it may definitely be lost in the 32 kilometers of off-road racing.
Perhaps the most anticipated stage of the whole race! In the second Sunday of the race the peloton will start and finish the stage in Troyes. A loop which will include 14 sectors of gravel roads, totaling to 32 kilometers in total (most of which in the final two thirds of the stage). There are hills also to contest in the day, but into the city there will be plenty fast and treacherous sections.
Stage 9: Troyes - Troyes, 199 kilometers
The sectors have the following stars (based on difficulty by the race itself), distance and also distance to the finish at the end of the sector. The following sector numbers are as presented by the race and not the profile above.
Sector 14 - 1 star. 2Km. 149Km to go.
Sector 13 - 3 stars. 1.2Km. 131Km to go.
Sector 12 - 2 stars. 1.5Km. 101Km to go.
Sector 11 - 3 stars . 3.4Km. 90Km to go.
Sector 10 - 3 stars. 4.2Km. 75.5Km to go.
Sector 9 - 1 star. 2.2Km. 64.5Km to go.
Sector 8 - 3 stars. 3.9Km. 54Km to go.
After this point there will be no more climbing, but instead flat gravel roads. Less difficulty on the road but faster and more treacherous sector, with positioning also being more important. Sector 7 comes right after the descent, but the final six sectors then will be tightly packed together.
Sector 7 - 1 star. 2.2Km. 44.5Km to go.
Sector 6 - 1 star. 1.2Km. 32Km to go.
Sector 5 - 1 star. 1.8Km. 28Km to go.
Sector 4 - 1 star. 1.5Km. 22Km to go.
Sector 3 - 1 star. 1.9Km. 19Km to go.
Sector 2 - 2 star. 2.2Km. 14Km to go.
Sector 1 - 2 star. 3Km. 6.5Km to go.
The Weather
Map Tour de France 2024 stage 9
No rain, and a small breeze from the southwest. The weather won't have a major impact on the day. A crosswind trend throughout most of the day in general, but it won't be strong enough to really influence the actions of the riders I think.
The Favourites
GC Fight - This is, obviously, the most important topic of the day. Many of the contenders have explored these roads months ahead of the race because they recognize the importance and dangers. Strong climbers are rarely the best on cobbled on gravel roads, mainly when they are flat. Racing on such roads, specially at the Tour, is a matter of raw power, positioning and technique skills, and some luck... One of those four factors, positioning, will almost completely depend on the team's quality and experience in such terrain. If there are crashes or punctures when the race is on, it will not stop. That is why many say the Tour will not be won here but some may lose it.
Some, like Primoz Roglic, are also well aware of what it's like to crash on the first week of the Tour on these tense days. All GC riders and stage contenders will want to enter each sector as best positioned as possible, and there simply isn't space for everyone. It is safe to say Roglic only wants to save the day. Remco Evenepoel wants to save the day, but if he survives, I would not be surprised at all to see him attack late in the day because this is the kind of terrain where he has advantage over some of his rivals.
Tadej Pogacar initially was a rider I thought there would be no doubt he'll attack, but the more I think of it the less I believe in it. UAE is, in my point of view, doing a bad job in this Tour positioning him in the flat stages and in some cases flat out absent even in key moments such as when a 50-rider peloton broke out on stage 6 and Pogacar was the only team rider. It is the job of Nils Politt and Tim Wellens to have him at the front of these sectors but I don't get much confidence. Juan Ayuso, João Almeida and Adam Yates certainly don't have the skillset to do this work and I would comfortably say that at least one or two will lose significant time on the day because they will also have little positioning support and will have to race for themselves.
But the main reason why I think a Pogacar attack isn't too likely is because Visma is just looking so strong. Pogacar won't be attacking an isolated Jonas Vingegaard like in the mountains, but a team that includes Wout van Aert, Christophe Laporte, Matteo Jorgenson, Tiesj Benoot and Jan Tratnik. A team that specializes in the classics, and will work to position him in every sector and will work to bring back attacks in the final kilometers. The final hours of racing will have gravel but I remind they are completely flat, having a team matters a lot.
I would say Carlos Rodríguez will be well protected by INEOS whilst riders like Egan Bernal, Derek Gee and Pello Bilbao may also climb up the ranks taking into consideration their team support, raw power and experience off-road respectively. Riders like Mikel Landa, Santiago Buitrago, Felix Gall, Jai Hindley and Enric Mas are in a specially sensitive position and will be happy just to keep their position - outside of the UAE riders I previously mentioned.
The rest of the field can be split into riders who have to work for their team and riders who won't. We will have Alpecin with full freedom and a very dangerous duo in Mathieu van der Poel and Jasper Philipsen chasing the stage win. Jasper Stuyven may have the freedom to chase it for Lidl-Trek if he is on a good day; Stefan Küng will be a free card for Groupama and I wouldn't exclude riders like Valentin Madouas and Romain Grégoire; Matej Mohoric the gravel World Champion will certainly aim for the win; Alberto Bettiol and Stefan Bissegger powerful riders for EF; Uno-X have Jonas Abrahamsen, Rasmus Tiller and Alexander Kristoff who can do very well on a day like this.
A few other quality riders, like for example Oier Lazkano and Oliver Naesen will be lieutenants for their GC riders I believe, I do not believe they have big chances. But we have a few sprinters/classics riders who can also do very well here and chase that win such as Arnaud De Lie (with Victor Campenaerts very dangerous for Lotto Dstny too) and Davide Ballerini. Biniam Girmay and Michael Matthews are also riders who can do quite well on such a day.
Prediction Tour de France 2024 stage 9:
*** Mathieu van der Poel, Arnaud De Lie
** Jasper Philipsen, Matej Mohoric, Jonas Abrahamsen, Victor Campenaerts
* Tadej Pogacar, Wout van Aert, Remco Evenepoel, Tom Pidcock, Jasper Stuyven, Stefan Küng, Stefan Bissegger, Davide Ballerini, Biniam Girmay
Pick: Arnaud de Lie
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