DISCUSSION | Paris-Nice 4 & Tirreno-Adriatico 3 - Vingegaard resists the Red Bull armada in the middle of chaos, Ayuso & Onley fall and have different fates

Weather conditions brought two key factors into the third stage of Tirreno-Adriatico and the fourth stage of Paris–Nice. Forecasts warned of heavy rain and strong crosswinds, putting the pelotons in both races on high alert from the very start.

Chaos erupted very early in the French race, where the wind caused splits and echelons within the opening kilometres, forcing several teams to fight for position to avoid losing time in the general classification.

In Italy, however, the situation was different. Despite the same weather warnings, the peloton chose a more cautious approach, riding at a controlled pace and paying closer attention to safety, avoiding unnecessary risks.

Jonas Vingegaard takes stage win and race lead in brutal French stage as Juan Ayuso abandons, while Tobias Lund Andresen triumphs in first sprint showdown in Italy

What had been missing in the opening days of Paris-Nice arrived in full force on stage 4, as wind, rain, crashes and steep climbs created a day of pure chaos.

The stage ended with Jonas Vingegaard taking the victory on the summit finish and moving into the overall lead, while race leader Juan Ayuso crashed and abandoned. At the same time in Tirreno-Adriatico, the sprinters finally had their chance, with Tobias Lund Andresen taking an impressive win in Magliano de’ Marsi.

Paris-Nice was expected to be decided only on the final climb, but the race exploded from the very first kilometres after the start in Bourges. Strong crosswinds split the peloton into several groups, with around 35 riders making the front selection.

Red Bull – BORA – hansgrohe had five riders in the lead group, while Visma | Lease a Bike was left with only Jonas Vingegaard and Edoardo Affini. Several contenders missed the split, including Kévin Vauquelin and Lenny Martínez, immediately putting them on the back foot.

The stage became even more chaotic after multiple crashes, with Oscar Onley going down from the front group before suffering a mechanical problem while chasing back to the leaders, who were riding at a very high pace.

The decisive moment came with 47 kilometres to go when Juan Ayuso crashed heavily. The Spaniard, who was wearing the yellow jersey, briefly remounted but stopped again moments later and abandoned the race in visible pain. The combination of rain, wind and nervous racing caused several other riders to abandon, while the gaps between groups grew rapidly.

With the race already split, BORA kept the pressure high at the front with several riders working together, followed only by Vingegaard and Mathias Vacek. The selection continued in the hilly section before the final climb to Signal d’Uchon.

Although the climb was seven kilometres long, the final 1.8 kilometres averaged around 10 percent and proved decisive. Tim van Dijke led Lenny Martínez into the base of the climb with Vingegaard on the wheel, while the chasing groups were already minutes behind.

Vingegaard waited until the final kilometre to make his move. When the Dane attacked, Martínez could not respond and the gap quickly opened. Vingegaard crossed the line alone to take the stage win, 41 seconds ahead of Martínez, with Tim van Dijke finishing third. The victory also gave the Visma rider the overall lead.

In contrast, stage 3 of Tirreno-Adriatico followed a much more predictable script, as the sprinters’ teams controlled the race despite difficult weather conditions.

Diego Pablo Sevilla attacked early and rode alone for several kilometres, but without support the move never became dangerous. The peloton kept the gap under control throughout the long, slightly hilly and rainy stage, making a bunch sprint almost inevitable.

Tension increased slightly in the final part of the race, and Isaac Del Toro picked up a bonus second at an intermediate sprint, but the main action came inside the final 25 kilometres when several riders tried to anticipate the sprint. Ethan Hayter, Jonas Abrahamsen and Liam Slock formed a dangerous move, but the peloton reacted quickly and brought them back.

The sprint trains of Lidl-Trek and Decathlon looked evenly matched in the final kilometres. Tord Gudmestad launched the sprint with Jonathan Milan on his wheel, but the Italian did not have his usual acceleration on the slightly uphill finish.

Tobias Lund Andresen timed his move perfectly, jumping from Milan’s wheel to take the victory in Magliano de’ Marsi, one of the biggest wins of his career so far. Arnaud De Lie finished second, with Jasper Philipsen completing the podium.

At Tirreno-Adriatico, there was little to talk about. The peloton rode at a moderate pace and everything came down to the final sprint.

When everyone expected Jonathan Milan to take another victory, he was surprised and pushed aside by the young Decathlon sprinter, Tobias Lund Andresen. Although he was very well positioned, we did not see Milan explode in the sprint. Something clearly happened with the Italian rider.

In Paris–Nice, it was complete chaos. Red Bull–BORA–Hansgrohe came into the stage with a clear plan from the team bus and blew the race apart in the very first kilometres. Vlasov must not have paid enough attention to the instructions from his sports director, as he failed to make it into the front group when the race split.

Oscar Onley and Juan Ayuso were among the many riders who crashed during the stage. While the INEOS Grenadiers rider managed to reach the finish line, although far behind, the Spaniard from Lidl–Trek was not as fortunate. He hit the ground hard, got back on his bike, but abandoned the race shortly afterwards. It was a real shame, because both riders looked strong enough to challenge Vingegaard.

Red Bull went all in and entered the final kilometres with four riders against just one from Visma, Jonas Vingegaard. It was not difficult to predict what would happen next. If Vingegaard was still in the front group inside the final kilometre, he was always going to attack, especially on the steepest part of the climb.

The Dane waited for the perfect moment to make his move, attacked at the right time, and took a clear and convincing victory.

Credit to Red Bull, who took the risk and shattered the race from a long way out. It was a pure demonstration of collective strength from the German team.

Tirreno-Adriatico did have the rain, but overall a very dull stage. The distance, weather and even some climbs provided opportunities for attacks and creating some interesting race situations, but aside from a minor late attack, that just did not happen.

The sprint was always expected, but it was a delightful confirmation of what I suspected would happen: Decathlon both had the best leadout and best sprinter.Whilst his performances in Australia were very strong, the peloton there was not.

Tobias Lund Andresen really proved himself at Omloop het Nieuwsblad where his form was incredible on the climbs, whilst his sprinting power has not been lost one bit. He had the sprint to beat the 'big guys' and Decathlon has also proved time and time again to have built a superb leadout, with Tord Gudmestad a brilliant leadout man. Well deserved win, in what was perhaps the most important sprint of this year so far.

At Paris-Nice, lots of highs and lows. With the crosswinds and rain, this stage delivered on one of the race's traditions: The echelons and complete chaos.

For Juan Ayuso the race ended in a crash that was unexpected and out of place. As I write this I do not know the extend of his injuries, but it looked bad. It's likely that he will lose out on a couple weeks of training and likely the injury will spell either disaster or outright end to his spring campaign.

It is a big shame because he had incredible form, looked very motivated and fit within Lidl-Trek, but will now have to build it back up.BORA did a perfect job, putting the most riders in the split, being in the right place at the right time when they avoided the crash, and put in enough work to distance everyone but Jonas Vingegaard.

The Dane was brilliant, he lacked the men to support him in the crosswinds, but he was also in the right place at the right time, at all times. Because of this, he deserves the victory, stage and likely GC on the queen stage.BORA had the men but they were all rouleurs, to be used to distance the competition whilst Martínez, the climber, got a perfect ride into the final climb.

In regular conditions Vingegaard would always win against the Colombian, but he really did struggle on the final climb it was apparent. BORA can't be disappointed however, they were never going to win the stage despite the favourable situation; but have almost secured a second place for Martínez whilst their domestiques and classics men showed their very best form in a key time of the season.