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PREVIEW | Tour de France 2024 stage 3 - Can Mark Cavendish overcome nightmare start and take his 35th win?
CyclingMonday, 01 July 2024 at 12:55
The opening weekend of the Tour de France was explosive and has delivered a lot of action. Now we preview the final full day of racing in Italy; stage 3 of this year's race is the first stage fully suited to the sprinters, but it's also a very very long day on the bike.
The sprinters will finally have their first real opportunity on stage 3 of the Tour. It's a transition day, a whole 229 kilometers on the menu but overall one of the flattest days of the race. The stage finale will be in Torino, a city which has already hosted the finale of the first stage of the Giro d'Italia this year.
Stage 3: Piacenza - Torino, 229 kilometers
It's a flat day, the first day for the pure sprinters and the final full day in Italy. Almost nothing noteworthy, it's a completely flat day until the final third; with two hilltops - the last of which ends with 50 kilometers to go. Enough time to take some rest and calm back down before the teams begin to prepare for the sprint.
It will be a fast and tense finale. A true race until the 1.2 kilometers to go where there will be a very sharp corner. Then just inside the final kilometer there will be another one. The riders will make it to the final sprint in the blink of an eye so positioning will be crucial and it will be a furious finale with a fresh peloton.
The Weather
Map Tour de France 2024 stage 3
In the Alps there have been massive rain showers and landslides throughout the weekend, but you wouldn't be able to tell it by watching the Tour. Now, the race heads closer to the mountain range, the riders will find cooler temperatures but at the same time small chances of rain. Unstable weather overall, but with no wind to take note of.
The Favourites
This is a day for the sprinters, there is no doubt, and I can pinpoint the leadouts coming into the race, none of which has suffered any losses thus far:
Jasper Philipsen - Mathieu van der Poel - Robbe Ghys - Jonas Rickaert - Axel Laurance - Soren Kragh Andersen
Mark Cavendish - Cees Bol - Michael Morkov - Davide Ballerini - Yevgeniy Fedorov
Dylan Groenewegen - Luka Mezgec - Michael Matthews - Elmar Reinders - Luke Durbridge - Christopher Juul-Jensen
Alexander Kristoff - Soren Waerenskjold - Magnus Cort Nielsen - Jonas Abrahamsen
Gerben Thijssen - Biniam Girmay - Mike Teunissen - Hugo Page - Laurenz Rex
Mads Pedersen - Jasper Stuyven - Ryan Gibbons
Fabio Jakobsen - Nils Eekhoff - Bram Welten - John Degenkolb
Phil Bauhaus - Nikias Arndt - Fred Wright - Matej Mohoric
Arnaud De Lie - Cedric Beullens - Jarrad Drizners - Victor Campenaerts - Brent van Moer
Sam Bennett - Dorian Godon - Oliver Naesen - Bruno Armirail
Arnaud Démare - Dan McLay - Amaury Capiot - Luca Mozzato
Bryan Coquard - Alexis Renard - Piet Allegaert
Pascal Ackermann - Jake Stewart
This is the first sprint of the Tour, there is little to analyze and take from experience. This is the day where the sprinters will have their first test when it comes to leadouts and sharpness. Wout van Aert and Christophe Laporte in my opinion are not yet going to try and contest it but instead protect Jonas Vingegaard.
A pure flat sprint with some technical aspect, I expect Alpecin and Jayco to have the best leadouts. Alpecin specially have proven themselves perfectly last year and if they can do the same, it will be very hard for someone to beat Jasper Philipsen honestly. It'll take a very powerful pure sprinter and honestly I only see Dylan Groenewegen as a rider who can overtake him.
So others have to play with their leadouts. I sincerely think both Astana and Uno-X have very strong leadouts and can indeed hit the sprint in pole position, but I don't think - at least right now - that neither Cavendish or Kristoff have the speed to beat these new sprinters on a regular day.
Prediction Tour de France 2024 stage 3:
*** Jasper Philipsen, Dylan Groenewegen
** Alexander Kristoff, Mads Pedersen
* Mark Cavendish, Gerben Thijssen, Fabio Jakobsen, Phil Bauhaus, Arnaud De Lie, Sam Bennett, Arnaud Démare, Bryan Coquard, Pascal Ackermann
Pick: Jasper Philipsen
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