Paris-Nice 2026 stage 5 preview, profiles, favourites & predictions - Will Jonas Vingegaard keep the yellow jersey on dangerous day?

The 2026 edition of Paris-Nice will be taking place from the 8th to the 15th of March and is, as every year, one of the key pro cycling events of the spring. It features opportunities for the climbers, sprinters and classics specialists alike. We preview stage 5, which is estimated to start and finish at 12:05 and 16:45CET.

The race was first held in 1933 and won by Belgian Alfons Schepers. Due to the race's nature, as the name says from Paris to Nice in the Mediterraneen sea; it is often called the 'Race to the Sun', and on the road that is quite literally often the case. It is an event, with 8 days in duration, that has crowned some of the sport's very best over the generations. Jacques Anquetil, Tom Simpson, Eddy Merckx, Raymond Poulidor, Joop Zoetemelk, Seak Kelly (the record holder, winning every single edition from 1982 to 1988), Miguel Indurain, Laurent Jalabert...

The list goes on and on, and in recent years the race hasn't lost any of its meaning. Modern legends such as Alberto Contador, Tony Martin, Bradley Wiggins, Geraint Thomas, Primoz Roglic and Tadej Pogacar have all inserted their names onto the history books. In 2025, it was Matteo Jorgenson who took the overall win, defending it successfully with a performance that spanned great stages in all terrains.

The fifth day of racing follows a similar formula to the previous one, however with a much more rugged first two thirds, with plenty small climbs in which a lot can happen, and a strong breakaway can with certainty be formed.

The 205-kilometer long route will also see endurance become an important factor, but the combination of final climbs is going to be the key for the stage. 3.9Km at 6.8% (33.5Km to go); 2.2Km at 10.5% (20Km to go); 3.2Km at 7.5% (9Km to go) will warm things up. Its a combination of climbs where a lot can happen; from a hard pace, to all-out GC attacks, even to potential tactical play alongside riders from the breakaway.

It is a finale designed to break things apart, before a slight uphill finish into Colombier-le-Vieux, which is 4.6 kilometers long at 3.5% - an appropriate finale for the stage where the descents are technical, and where the riders do go uphill, but the gradients mean it can still be quite tactical.

In the Drôme valley the wind always blows strong and from the north, and this Thursday was no exception. There will be a tailwind almost all day long, which makes a breakaway win quite possible - depending on who goes out in front. Breakaways succeeding in World Tour races are hardly ever successful nowadays, however here the circumstances fit, specially after the GC gaps having grown so much today.

We will have a fight for positioning into the first two main climbs, and by the time the second is done, the peloton will be down to only a few riders, so then there won't be too much tension in the group. Visma don't have a super team, but it's more than enough to control the race for Jonas Vingegaard who only needs to go on defense mode to win this race now - aka avoid crashes. Daniel Martínez sits second in GC but honestly if I were him I would also play it conservatively, and the same applies to Georg Steinhauser who is third. All three are at the best position they can realistically achieve and would be happy to maintain it.

So to really push the pace you'd need others to come through. INEOS has reasons to, they have Kévin Vauquelin who can jump onto Steinhauser's podium spot, a strong team and an Oscar Onley who can potentially also take a stage win if he is given freedom... So they have reasons to push, whilst Lenny Martínez and David Gaudu also looked near their best today and could be allies to try and put pressure on the rest. Otherwise we can see some attacks certainly but away from the main climbs.

The classics riders may have a blast forming a breakaway here and going on to win the stage, again it will require hard work to chase them down and it depends on which teams want to commit to it. Otherwise, we could see either a climber or puncheur win from the front, and plenty will have freedom after today's stage. But we do not know the health status of several who have crashed.

But for sure we should consider riders such as Mathias Vacek, Valentin Paret-Peintre, Aleksandr Vlasov, Andreas Leknessund, Pavel Sivakov or Iván Romeo...

*** Jonas Vingegaard, Kévin Vauquelin
** Lenny Martínez,
* Daniel Martínez, Oscar Onley, David Gaudu, Ion Izagirre, Mathias Vacek, Andreas Leknessund, Iván Romeo

Pick: Kévin Vauquelin

How: Sprint out of the GC riders