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PREVIEW | Tour Down Under 2024 stage 3 - Sam Welsford and Caleb Ewan headline sprinter showdown
CyclingThursday, 18 January 2024 at 00:57
Preview. The first two days of the Tour Down Under have presented exciting finales, and stage 3 should be no exception. This will be a day for the sprinters, where Sam Welsford and Caleb Ewan will be headlining the fight for the win.
Stage 3 starts uphill however it should be a relatively easy day to control. The race rides into Campbelltown but will not tackle the Corkscrew climb. Instead, a flat day where a bunch sprint will be hard to prevent. However, with such a tricky start and mostly downhill finale, a breakaway could certainly take advantage.
Stage 3: Tea Tree Gully - Campbelltown, 145.3 kilometers
Again, it is a day that immediately starts with a climb. The first 35 kilometers of the 145-kilometer day are very explosive, they feature several climbs. If there are enough riders willing to take the risks, this could lead to a very interesting day. The day is quite rolling, and then the final 25 kilometers have a downhill trend. Speeds will be very high and it is difficult to cut much of a gap in such terrain.
However, a bunch sprint remains the most likely scenario. Campbelltown, in the outskirts of the Adelaide city center, hosts a finale that has a technical approach, but a pan-flat finale.
The Weather
Map Tour Down Under 2024 stage 3
Some southern wind. This won't affect the riders though, expect a regular racing day with a bunch sprint. The final kilometers will not be exposed to the wind, if the final kilometer has some it'll be a crosswind but ultimately, nothing important to note. The temperatures will be rather smooth.
The Favourites
Sam Welsford - BORA - hansgrohe have a very strong leadout, and Sam Welsford only has to follow them until the finish. If he does, it will be hard to top him as he does have the speed. He just has to replicate the formula of the opening day, for this reason I see him as the main favourite for the victory.
Caleb Ewan - Caleb Ewan suffered from the heat on the opening day. He was ill in the run-up to the race and suffered there, having the kick in the final sprint, but not being able to maintain the power output. This stage should be calmer, which is better for him. However, he needs rather perfect positioning like on day 1 in order to beat the rest I feel - which is often hard for him.
Phil Bauhaus - The German delivered on expectations on the opening day. Now without climbs - unlike today - he should be back to the front of the pack. He had the speed on the previous sprint but not the ideal position, so settled with second. I don't think Bahrain has the leadout to deliver him better, but if he has the legs he can take the win.
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INEOS - The true question is, who will they go for in this sprint? Filippo Ganna is not showing good form and is having a rough start to the year, so it would be no surprise that he's not aiming to sprint, but instead help the team in the leadout. Logic would dictate that this would be in support of Elia Viviani, but the Italian has simply been absent from the action over the past two days. The team saw Jhonatan Narváez sprint to fifth in a flat sprint on stage 1... Even though the Ecuadorian is a puncheur, he is a big favourite for the overall win and it is very possible that the priority could be to get him up there and maybe net some bonus seconds.
Biniam Girmay has looked quite sharp over the past few days, he will certainly be a big rider to take into consideration as it feels like he is smelling a win. We've got Corbin Strong as well, seemingly in great form, he's net bonifications on both days so far and will with no doubt chase more in this stage.
In the sprint fight furthermore we should see present the likes of Max Kanter, Ivan García Cortina, Alvaro Hodeg, Laurence Pithie, Dan McLay and Mathias Vacek.
Prediction Tour Down Under 2024 stage 3:
*** Sam Welsford
** Caleb Ewan, Phil Bauhaus, Biniam Girmay
* Elia Viviani, Corbin Strong, Max Kanter, Mathias Vacek, Jhonatan Narváez
Pick: Sam Welsford
Preview written by Rúben Silva.
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