PREVIEW | Tirreno-Adriatico 2025 stage 4 - Will the classics specialists blow up a 'breakaway bingo' stage?

From the 10th to 16th of March the World Tour peloton races Tirreno-Adriatico. This is in itself one of the most important stage-races of the year; but simultaneously it serves as preparation for the spring classics and also as a test for the Giro d'Italia. It will be a week of high-octane racing across Italy! We preview stage 4.

Stage 4 into Trasacco could end in a sprint but this is a day designed for a breakaway and where many riders will be testing their form. The first two thirds of the stage are in a constant up-and-down and the climbs are not easy at all. Having an organized chase will be a challenge, but there will be plenty riders looking to take advantage of the opportunity.

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Stage 4: Norcia - Trasacco, 189.7 kilometers

Right from the get go, 14.3 kilometers at 4.7%. Here many riders can use the opportunity to launch an attack and form a breakaway. With this race having only one mountain stage (where you can't expect huge gaps), many can even aim to gain time here and then potentially fight for the GC win. It's a very threatening day where a lot can happen and the start should be explosive.

We've got some downhill and then two more ascents (one of 7.5 kilometers at 5%; and the other 12.4 kilometers at 5.7%). The last one will end with 85 kilometers to go. Don't expect defining GC attacks here, but a breakaway can build a good gap as most sprinters will have to ride a very controlled pace here and the peloton will inevitably either ride slow or lose most of the men that can fight for the win at the end. A very interesting dynamic can be formed.

There will still be a lot of descending and only the final 50 kilometers will be flat. Don't be mistaken, in this amount of time gaps can be closed a lot, but it will depend largely on what happens earlier in the day. It's not a pan-flat arrival either, as with 5 kilometers to go there is a small 9% ramp where you could see some moves. If it comes down to a sprint, it will be flat and not very technical in Trasacco.

The Weather

Map Tirreno-Adriatico 2025 stage 4

Strong southwestern wind all day long and good chances of rain. It will be another tough days in the hills and the weather will make it even harder to control... Wind wise, it will mostly be a cross-headwind all day long, the final kilometers do present some headwind sections where the peloton can bring back a breakaway.

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Breakaway bingo

Perhaps the first of the year. Now, it's uncertain if a breakaway will win on the day, the final kilometers do allow for some organized chasing to have it's effect. But effectively speaking, it's very likely that the break will take this one because the bad weather, climbing start and long ascents make it very hard for any sprinter team to put on an organized chase - and for the fast men to survive. Those who can indeed climb also need to take it slow, otherwise they will lose all the ally teams for the finale... It becomes a very hard mix and simultaneously, there are plenty of classics riders and rouleurs hungry for a stage win and here to work on their form for the spring classics.

And we have the added dimension of the overall classification. This race is not that hard this year, there is one mountain stage where big gaps can be created, but not to those who can handle themselves. With dozens of riders involved in the GC, with such a day here, it can be a ticket to try and turn the tables on the whole race. Hence don't be surprised if you see top riders try to create chaos on the first climb such as EF's Ben Healy and Richard Carapaz who were mighty active today; Romain Grégoire and Valentin Madouas of FDJ; Roger Adrià, Marc Hirschi, Tobias Johannessen, Davide Formolo... Riders who have everything to win by trying to surprise - the finale being flat makes it less risky for anyone who gives it a shot.

I would even put race leader Filippo Ganna on this list honestly, but his lead is good and if he keeps it safe he actually already does stand a chance of a good final GC. Watch out for explosive riders such as Mathieu van der Poel and Magnus Cort Nielsen who definitely have good reason to try.

This is a day that is hard to predict, many can try early on, and the race can be won in many different ways. The winner could even be outside of these lists... But I would add as good options: Gianni Vermeersch, Benjamin Thomas, Jasper Stuyven, Pelayo Sánchez, Attila Valter, Dylan van Baarle, Fredrik Dversnes, Manuele Tarozzi and Simone Velasco.

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But the stage could finish in a sprint. It's unlikely, but not impossible. Although after taking a stage win and today seeing both sprinter and leadout man crash, I doubt Jonathan Milan's Lidl-Trek will be very optimistic to take up this task... Decathlon's Andrea Vendrame also took a major win today and so the team does not have to work towards this, and can rely on their rivals.

I would say Quick-Step with Paul Magnier and Visma with Olav Kooij will be the teams most eager to try and control the stage into a sprint but the task will be difficult and honestly that would only be a good tactic if they outright fail to get riders in the breakaway. Cofidis with Alex Aranburu and Bryan Coquard; Israel with Jake Stewart and Uno-X with Cort and Soren Waerenskjold could also potentially help out the others. Giovanni Lonardi, Filippo Fiorelli and Maikel Ziljaard are also worthy mentions for such a stage.

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Prediction Tirreno-Adriatico 2025 stage 4:

*** Magnus Cort Nielsen, Mathieu van der Poel
** Filippo Ganna, Jonathan Milan, Andrea Vendrame
* Ben Healy, Romain Grégoire, Roger Adrià, Marc Hirschi, Benjamin Thoma, Pelayo Sanchez, Simone Velasco, Paul Magnier, Olav Kooij, Bryan Coquard, Alex Aranburu, Jake Stewart

Pick: Magnus Cort Nielsen

How: Sprint from a breakaway

Original: Rúben Silva

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