Tirreno-Adriatico has seen a strong sprint battle on the second day of racing and stage 3 will be another opportunity. This time around however a tougher hilly finale, where Jasper Philipsen can make it a second victory in as many days.
The third day of racing is one that is very interesting. The finale into Gualdo Taldino is the very same as in 2021, where Mathieu van der Poel outsprinted Wout van Aert. A long day with 224 kilometers, it definitely is made to test the form of the classics specialists and those eyeing Milano-Sanremo specially.
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Stage 3: Volterra - Gualdo Tadino, 224.4 kilometers
2600 meters of climbing, the first third of the day is relatively hilly. Nothing too difficult but it will add to the fatigue. The sprinter-puncheur balance is what will dictate the day, the teams of those who can climb better will want to push the pace in the uphill sections.
The most important perhaps is the climb to Casacastalda which is 5.9 kilometers at 3.6% - quite similar to the Cipressa, interestingly. This summits with 16 kilometers to go. A short descent follows, and then a gradual false-flat road into the final town. The finale is explosive.
Honestly a sprint is hard to avoid but it is possible. Leading into the final kilometer we have a ramp that goes up to 11%, the run-up will be very fast, here I expect some attacks - the final kilometer has a few turns which will make bringing them back hard. A winding final kilometer and a short finishing straight which has a 5% gradient. A very explosive and likely exciting finale lies ahead.
The Weather
Map Tirreno-Adriatico 2024 stage 3
Some northern wind which will create tension throughout the day no doubt. It will be meaningful and we will see some crosswinds in the run-up to the finish. However it is not an exposed one, it should not be too race-changing.
The Favourites
Jasper Philipsen - Philipsen did what he had to today. An impressive sprint from Merlier, but Philipsen won out of his traditional perfect positioning. His sprint was just as impressive however and it could be a good sign of form. If he does have it he should survive these gradients and will be difficult to beat in a sprint.
Tim Merlier - Merlier can certainly survive in the uphill sprints but this is different, there will be a climb before the finish, a constant effort. This will make it a very tough task, not an impossible one, but a very difficult one. The Soudal - Quick-Step leader thrived in the UAE Tour and in the middle of the spring should have very good form, so do not count him out!
Biniam Girmay - Intermarché have a very strong leadout and they have done quite well today. Girmay is the kind of rider that loves these finales, and with less sprinters in the mix - because they will suffer uphill, that is a certainty - it will also be less difficult to find a good position. After finishing third today, best of the "human" sprinters, he definitely stands a chance of raising his arms tomorrow.
The likes of Soren Waerenskjold, Corbin Strong, Axel Zingle. Vincenzo Albanese, Amaury Capiot and Iván Cortina García could also do quite well. In fact some will aim for this day in specific because it features very long distances and a finale that suits the classics specialists. These are sprinters who can climb quite well - on in Zingle's case, a puncheur who can sprint just as good as some of the men around him. A surprise could happen, and keep a close eye on other figures who may also fare quite well as it's a short effort.
Casper van Uden is also a very dangerous figure, he won a not too different arrival at the Saudi Tour. He, Jonathan Milan, Caleb Ewan, Ethan Vernon, Cees Bol and Clément Venturini are all wildcards. I would neither be surprises to see any of them finish in the Top10 or completely outside contention. The likes of Phil Bauhaus, Giovanni Lonardi and Stanislaw Aniolkowki will prefer other finishes but are to be taken into consideration too - Mark Cavendish too to a certain point, but not optimistic.
I do expect a sprint but a late attack can certainly succeed, or even rule in a sprint. Do not discard the likes of Tom Pidcock, Filippo Ganna, Daniel Martínez, Romain Grégoire, Toms Skujins, Julian Alaphilippe and Juan Ayuso are all very interesting riders to take into consideration.
Prediction Tirreno-Adriatico 2024 stage 3:
*** Jasper Philipsen, Biniam Girmay
** Tim Merlier, Soren Waerenskjold, Axel Zingle
* Corbin Strong, Amaury Capiot, Iván García Cortina, Casper van Uden, Jonathan Milan, Ethan Vernon, Cees Bol, Tom Pidcock, Daniel Martínez, Juan Ayuso, Toms Skujins
** Tim Merlier, Soren Waerenskjold, Axel Zingle
* Corbin Strong, Amaury Capiot, Iván García Cortina, Casper van Uden, Jonathan Milan, Ethan Vernon, Cees Bol, Tom Pidcock, Daniel Martínez, Juan Ayuso, Toms Skujins
Pick: Jasper Philipsen
Rúben SilvaEditor-in-Chief
A founding contributor to CyclingUpToDate since its launch in January 2022, Ruben Silva has played a central role in shaping the site’s editorial direction and long-term growth. Before joining the project, he built his experience through independent blogging at Echelons Hub and by producing race previews for Ciclismo Internacional, developing a strong analytical voice rooted in daily engagement with professional cycling.
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He also helps oversee editorial governance across the network, setting standards for accuracy and consistency and coordinating updates or corrections when needed.
Originally from the Porto metropolitan area in Portugal, he holds a bachelor’s degree in Geography. His path into cycling journalism was shaped not through formal media training, but through independent reporting, community engagement, and sustained on-the-ground involvement in the sport.
Over the course of his career, he has conducted approximately 100 interviews across road cycling and cyclocross, ranging from one-to-one conversations and online formats to press conferences and on-site pre- and post-race coverage. His interviews include leading riders, team managers, and prominent figures within cycling media: Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Mathieu van der Poel, Primoz Roglic, Wout van Aert, Joao Almeida and Tom Pidcock; managers like Patrick Lefevere and Joxean Matxin; and YouTube personality Bryan Kennedy (BKXC)...
Within 18 months of launch, he helped grow CyclingUpToDate’s English-language platform into one of the most-read cycling news websites, built entirely from the ground up. As both a professional journalist and lifelong cycling enthusiast, his focus remains on delivering accurate, timely, and well-contextualized coverage.
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One race. Two seas. One champion. 🔱 Who will be the king of 2024 Tirreno-Adriatico @CA_ita? #TirrenoAdriatico
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