PREVIEW | Paris-Nice 2024 stage 4 - Primoz Roglic and Remco Evenepoel vs UAE at Mont Brouilly

Stage 4 of Paris-Nice will be an important day at Paris-Nice, featuring plenty small climbs and a summit finish at Mont Brouilly. Brandon McNulty will start with the yellow jersey, but the likes of Remco Evenepoel and Primoz Roglic will be on the hunt of the yellow jersey after an unlucky time-trial .

A very important day in the race. I does not feature any big climb, but differences will be made. Paris-Nice organizers wanted a difficult day and although they did not have many climbs to tackle, they then introduced a circuit where damage will be done. 183 kilometers and 3300 meters of climbing throughout the day.

A roller-coaster day, full of climbs throughout the entire day. 4.5Km at 6.1% (94Km to go), 3.2Km at 6.8% (79Km to go) and 2.2Km at 9.1% (56Km to go) are a big warm-up. The riders then climb up Mont Brouilly for the first time, a 2.9-kilometer climb at 7.8% whose gradients go up to 15%. The first ascent summits with 39 kilometers to go.

The riders still find more climbing right after the first climb of Brouilly. The first category Col du Fut d'Avenas Les Chappes is 5.1 kilometers at 7.3% which summits with 22 kilometers to go. After the summit we've got a fast and winding descent that will lead the riders back into Brouilly.

This climb has been used in the past in the race, both at time-trials and normal road stages. The riders should wait for the second half to really make the difference where we've got the double-digit gradients, but gaps can certainly be created among even the very best here all the way into the finish.

The Weather

Small chances of rain towards the afternoon one again, however it is not too likely. The wind will also be relatively weak and shouldn't affect the outcome of the day.

The Favourites

Remco Evenepoel - The Belgian was angry after today and even lashed out at former Tim DeClercq. He has since apologized but you can understand the emotion he feels. This is a race he wants to win, and he does not want to be on the backfoot. He's won considerable time on Primoz Roglic, but has four UAE Team Emirates riders ahead of him. He can certainly drop every single one but you never know when one of them will be at his best and keep up with him. Still, he's in pole position to win the GC, but has to put in a strong pure climbing performance.

Primoz Roglic - The loser of the TTT. Roglic is 26 seconds behind Remco Evenepoel and 54 behind the group of UAE riders. This is not a good position to be in, not only does he have to go on the offensive if he wants to win the race, but he also has to make up significant time that should not be possible in this one climb - which means he will have to continue with the attitude the next few days. This is definitely the type of climb that suits him however, and he is eager to start off his time with BORA - hansgrohe with a victory.

UAE Team Emirates - How will UAE race is the main question. For them ideally, a conservative race until the final climb and then each do their own race, likely one of them maintains the yellow jersey. However at the same time, they can lose yellow and that wouldn't be unexpected if Evenepoel is on a great day. I do not expect any of the four riders to work for each other, the team does not do those tactics with these riders and all four have ambitions for the day. Ultimately all can climb superbly on an ascent like this but Brandon McNulty did struggle a lot at the UAE Tour and may be the most fragile. João Almeida seems to be the leader on paper, whilst Jay Vine will want to finish what he started in the UAE. Finn Fisher-Black is not a pure climber for the weekend, but on arrivals like these he can definitely fly for the win.

Matteo Jorgenson looked brilliant on the opening day. He, Egan Bernal and Mattias Skjelmose are in my opinion the biggest contenders for the podium; perhaps Pello Bilbao also a pretty good option to finish on that Top3. This will be the first real climbing challenge where differences will be made so we will learn a lot about the GC riders' ambitions after this day.

We've got David Gaudu, Carlos Rodríguez, Felix Gall, Alexey Lutsenko and Team Jayco AlUla duo of Chris Harper and Luke Plapp who should want to fight for GC quite a bit and are all very valid contenders for a Top10. The TTT has already made some differences, but here they will be more important.

We've got a few other riders who could contest for the GC, but are less important riders in the big picture; who can still nevertheless perform and race for a Top10. The likes of Jack Haig, Santiago Buitrago, Ruben Guerreiro, Steff Cras, Michael Storer and Clément Champoussin specially are figures to take into great consideration.

Prediction Paris-Nice 2024 stage 4:

*** Remco Evenepoel, Primoz Roglic
** Matteo Jorgenson, Finn Fisher-Black, Mattias Skjelmose
* Egan Bernal, João Almeida, Jay Vine, Pello Bilbao, David Gaudu, Feliz Gall, Alexey Lutsenko, Luke Plapp, Santiago Buitrago

Pick: Primoz Roglic