PREVIEW | Paris-Nice 2024 - Remco Evenepoel and Primoz Roglic's first battle of the year

From the 3rd to the 10th of March the World Tour peloton faces one of the most prestigious and difficult stage-races in the calendar. Here is the preview for the 'The Race to the Sun', Paris-Nice, will be on the road and providing opportunities for the best in the world to fight for wins.

The race features eight days of racing. Bad weather and wind frequently take over the first half of the race, hence why it's called "Race to the Sun", as the riders head into the sunny coast in Nice. The race starts with a hilly day, whilst stage 2 should be a bunch sprint. Stage 3 is a long team time-trial where some important differences can be created. Stage 4 sees a very tough multi-climb route with a summit finish at Mont Brouilly where some gaps can be opened.

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Stage 5 is a hilly day suited to a breakaway or reduced bunch sprint, the sixth day of racing does as well - however this one with much steeper climbs where the overall classification can also be at play. Most likely climbers will save their legs for the final two days of racing though where the yellow jersey should be decided.

Stage 7 into Auron is not overly hard but features a summit finish that is 7.3 kilometers long at 7.2%. The final day is a classic explosive loop around Nice filled with short but explosive climb; with the Col des Quatre Chemins (3.6Km; 8.8%) close to the finish set to be the final location to create differences - in what may be the toughest climb of the race.

The Favourites

Remco Evenepoel - After winning in Figueira and Algarve, Evenepoel sets off for his first big goal of the season. Don't be mistaken, this is not a race that fits him like a glove. Like last year in Catalunya he lacks an individual time-trial where he can put the difference on the rest. The team time-trial can be an opportunity for sure, but the race is decided in the climbs and possibly crosswinds. The 8 days of racing are also preparation for him, his first stage-race in France since turning pro, aiming towards the Tour. Form is there, perhaps the most reliable contender. Ilan van Wilder will be of key climbing support but also a Top10 contender even in this role.

Primoz Roglic - But he will face Primoz Roglic, who beat him in Catalunya last year. The two are big rivals and very evenly matched. Roglic only now starts his season, but that is traditional for him and good form is expected. Now leading a different team, it will be a test for himself and BORA. He has Aleksandr Vlasov and a lineup similar to that of the Tour de France behind him, the Slovenian thrives in races like this and was the winner in 2022. On paper he has no weaknesses, and the two are likely to be the big contenders for victory.

UAE - In Catalunya last year, Roglic and Almeida were joined by João Almeida. The Portuguese climber is here, but with illness delaying his start to the season, form should not be it's best. The team has Brandon McNulty and Jay Vine, who thrived in the first half of the UAE Tour and looked to be the main favourites; but then completely cracked in the second half. What to expect of all three is a question, they will also likely not have a leader but chase UCI points. The latter two may struggle with the length of the race. Marc Soler is on paper in the exact same position, and even Finn Fisher-Black can on paper fight for a good result - specially if he matches the best in the hilly days.

INEOS - A strong team with experienced domestiques, riders preparing for the classics and a Joshua Tarling to pull everyone through the team time-trial. Laurens de Plus could do well, but the team have both Carlos Rodríguez and Egan Bernal present. The Spaniard struggled at Gran Camiño but I expect his form to rise, specially now as he finds terrain and weather better suited to him. There, Bernal was third. I wouldn't call him a podium contender yet for a race like this, but his signs continue to improve. Bernal is a very experienced and complete rider, he can certainly benefit from rough weather as well all round. Both contenders for a Top5, but eyeing bigger goals I'm certain.

Mattias Skjelmose - This is the exact kind of race I expect to see Skjelmose performing strongle. A rider with great history in France, last year he won the Tour de Suisse with great climbing and time-trialing performances - whilst he also loves the short explosive ascents. A strong contender for the podium. He started his season much later this time around, but at the Faun classics he showed good legs on both occasions and should be fit for a worthy performance over the week.

Pello Bilbao - Always a very consistent and reliable rider, Bilbao is another figure in the fight for the podium. He finished third at the recent UAE Tour displaying good form. He can climb long and short ascents quite well, and the rougher the weather the better he can perform. This is a good skillset for Paris-Nice which often throws surprises; he also likes the long races and could do quite well here, with Bahrain also having Santiago Buitrago and Jack Haig as secondary cards.

Felix Gall - The Austrian struggles against the clock and this will be his true weak spot. Hence, podium is the best he can hope for, but it is still a tough request. He does not have a team to push uphill here but Gall can still be very interesting. The Austrian is a tremendous pure climber, is not afraid to carry out aggressive strategies and also seemingly showed good form at the recent Faun-Ardèche Classic.

Matteo Jorgenson - Having made his debut for Visma at the Opening Weekend, he is set to lead the team now in France. Do not neglect his chances of finishing on the podium, last year he was eighth but climbed very well towards the end of the race. He showed good form in the cobbles and with Visma now I do expect an improvement in all aspects. Besides, he is a true engine and if the crosswinds tear the race apart as it usually happens he is in the perfect position individually and collectively to benefit from it. Pay attention to Wilco Kelderman as well, who can certainly perform in this type of race.

David Gaudu - Second last year to the now-absent Tadej Pogacar. Hence, hopes could be high, but that was in reality the best Gaudu showed in 2023. On paper, he can certainly be in the fight for top positions, but his start to the season has also not been too good which sees my expectations as modest for Groupama. They can however chase stage wins with other riders in the team.

The race could also count on secondary overall classification contenders which, depending on circumstances, could also feature in the Top10. This includes Luke Plapp, Alexey Lutsenko, Yannis Voisard and Steff Cras.

Other big figures

As always, the race is also one that is very important for the sprinters. Quite a few quality fast men made the trip to France including Mads Pedersen, Michael Matthews, Dylan Groenewegen, Bryan Coquard, Sam Bennett, Arnaud De Lie, Fabio Jakobsen, Marijn van den Berg, Danny van Poppel, Kaden Groves and Pascal Ackermann.

And naturally, with the spring classics right ahead of us, other riders come to prepare for them (whilst others may seek stage wins in other types of days): Joshua Tarling, Stefan Bissegger, Matteo Trentin, Ion Izagirre and Laurence Pithie.

Prediction Paris-Nice 2024 overall classification:

*** Primoz Roglic, Remco Evenepoel
** Mattias Skjelmose, Pello Bilbao, Matteo Jorgenson
* João Almeida, Jay Vine, Carlos Rodríguez, Egan Bernal, Felix Gall, David Gaudu, Wilco Kelderman

Pick: Remco Evenepoel