Stage 1 of Paris-Nice will be an interesting day, with plenty small hilltops in the way to what should be a sprint. We preview an explosive day where the likes of Mads Pedersen and Remco Evenepoel can be very dangerous.
The opening day of the French race, as usual, is an explosive one that is open to many type of riders. Sprinters, puncheurs and classics specialists all have opportunities to succeed here - even if the weather doesn't play out.
Starting and finishing in Les Mureaux, the day will most likely be a slow build-up towards a particular section of the stage. With 28 kilometers to go there is an intermediate sprint at the top of a 700-meter hilltop at 8%. Right after follows a fast descent and right into another small climb.
This one is 2.6 kilometers at 5% but has a very steep start. It's a very explosive start to the stage where some sprinters may be dropped or put into trouble, but it can be used for attacks. This climb ends with only 12.5 kilometers to go, and before the finish there is still a descent that will go by fast.
The stage may come down to a sprint, which will have an uphill rise to the line as well. The gradients will reach 7% right before the final corner which comes with just 150 meters to go.
The Weather
Cold and grey, but not overly windy. The wind is present, but nothing as previous years shown. Coming from the northwest, it will be a headwind in the intermediate sprint and cross-headwind in the finally hilltop and most of the run-up to the finish line, which will not be favourable to attackers in all honesty.
The Favourites
Mads Pedersen - Winner in Besseges and Provence, it is not by chance that Pedersen now travelled to yet another French stage-race. They suit him perfectly, the style of racing, the profiles and the early-season weather. He is a rider that will not be put into difficulty on the climbs, he can definitely benefit from a tough race ending in a sprint and that would be the ideal scenario for him. However don't discard the chance of him following some attacks if we see the climbers start the fireworks.
Arnaud De Lie - You could say the same of Arnaud De Lie. With a small ramp to the line his chances actually increase; he's not a big fan of pure bunch sprints but this isn't one of them. Like Pedersen he'd love from attacks up the climbs to shed sprinters off the back and he is also a rider with enough quality to even follow moves himself.
Olav Kooij - A perfect mix I would say is Olav Kooij. All-in for a sprint, he's got the pure speed, but he's also got the climbing legs to survive fast ascents of this length. It could be the best day for him to succeed even, he's definitely shown in the past also having legs to beat this kind of competition.
Michael Matthews - Matthews is the type of rider you'd expect to maybe even see on the attack here if it blows up. The uphill ramp to the line may prevent him from doing so as it's to his flavour, but at this point in his career he is more of a puncheur than a sprinter. To win in a sprint would be very difficult, but he can be a menace to the competition in more than one way.
Bryan Coquard - Definitely a card for the sprint. He loves uphill sprints and this is his kind of day. Not a rider to neglect, but another one to add to the list of sprinters focusing specially on this day.
Kaden Groves - It depends on what Groves we will have. Far from top form and he's going to be a regular figure, who may struggle. At top form he can definitely climb well here and be a very big contender for victory. It's a testing day for Alpecin, his main goals do lie ahead.
The likes of Danny van Poppel, Marijn van den Berg, Casper Pedersen and Omar Fraile would enjoy a very hard stage without many sprinters towards the finish. On the opposite a few guys may struggle on a day like this, perhaps too difficult for them such as Gerben Thijssen, Arnaud Démare, Sam Bennett, Fabio Jakobsen and Arvid de Kleijn.
The climbs are not too far from the finish, this kind of race you wouldn't be surprised to see Remco Evenepoel give it a shot and try to use the element of surprise. Expect also Primoz Roglic to be aware of that and try to cover immediately if he moves. They may cancel each other, but others can certainly take the opportunity to launch dangerous attacks. The likes of Mattias Skjelmose, Matteo Jorgenson or Pello Bilbao can use this for GC purposes... Finn Fisher-Black, Kévin Geniets, Laurence Pithie, Santiago Buitrago and Pierre Latour can take opportunities uphilll... Whilst rouleurs such as Rémi Cavagna and Matteo Trentin may try over the top of the final ascent.
Prediction Paris-Nice 2024 stage 1:
*** Mads Pedersen, Olav Kooij
** Arnaud De Lie, Kaden Groves, Danny van Poppel
* Michael Matthews, Bryan Coquard, Marijn van den Berg, Arnaud Démare, Remco Evenepoel, Matteo Jorgenson, Finn Fisher-Black
Pick: Olav Kooij
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