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PREVIEW | Tirreno-Adriatico 2024 - Jonas Vingegaard hunts overall victory; Philipsen and Merlier have first sprint battles of the season
CyclingMonday, 04 March 2024 at 10:57
From the 4th to 10th of March we've got one of the most important stage-races of the year taking place. We preview Tirreno-Adriatico, a prime race for stage-racers throughout the spring, and a launchpad for classics specialists and sprinters ahead of the first monuments of the season.
The race features seven stages, opening up with a day for the time-trialists. We've got two days that should be pure and flat bunch sprints, two stages that should end in sprints but feature some climbing and present good opportunities for puncheurs and classics specialists. Out of the two mountain stages we've got the clear key day on stage 6 to Monte Petrano; and a tricky but very open day on stage 5 to Valle Castellana.
Stage 1 (ITT): Lido di Camaiore - Lido di Camariore, 10 kilometers
Stage 2: Camaiore - Follonica, 199.5 kilometers
Stage 3: Volterra - Gualdo Tadino, 224.4 kilometers
Stage 4: Arrone - Giulianova, 208.2 kilometers
The first half of the race features a time-trial and three days that should end in a sprint. Stages 3 and 4 however are relatively hilly and both feature uphill sprints. Classics riders will have opportunities to test their form here. Ideally, Milano-Sanremo contenders will be making sure they've got the endurance, climbing and sprinting legs.
The second half starts on stage 5. The fifth day of racing features the ascent to San Giacomo (11.9 kilometers at 6.2%) where attacks may happen. The rolling finale into Valle Castellana however is where action can really kick off.
Stage 6 into Monte Petrano is the queen stage. Here we've got a summit finish in an ascent that is 10 kilometers long at almost 8%, at the end of a day with 3500 meters of climbing. Now or never for the pure climbers, this is the most likely place where the race will be decided. Stage 7 into San Benedetto Del Trento will then be the classic sprint finale.
Stage 5: Torricella Sicura - Valle Castellana, 144.8 kilometers
Stage 6: Sassoferrato - Cagli (Monte Petrano), 180.6 kilometers
Stage 7: San Benedetto Del Tronto - San Benedetto Del Tronto, 154.2 kilometers
The Favourites
Jonas Vingegaard - The man in form? Honestly Vingegaard is such a quality rider that, like some of the other very best, winning three stages is not actually confirmation that he is at his very best - last year's Paris-Nice being a clear example. Will the same happen? Even if so, I argue he will be the main favourite to conquer the overall win. Vingegaard is the man to beat, in the early time-trial he should do good, but in reality there's only one stage where he should be able to make a real difference. Seven days of racing, offensive alliances may come in his way. With Cian Uijtdebroeks and Attila Valter to support him however, it may be difficult to surprise the Dutch team.
UAE - UAE will be one of the teams that does have that possibility. Adam Yates was meant to be here but he was injured at the UAE Tour and will not. Not too much depth then for the team, but they keep having Juan Ayuso who is always a wildcard; but mostly Isaac Del Toro who I still believe already is capable of racing with the best in a race like this. They can do something. If the team do not impose conservative racing for the sake of UCI points both can be quite exciting to watch.
BORA - No Primoz Roglic, but BORA has serious firepower here. Daniel Martínez won two summit finishes at the Volta ao Algarve and was in flying form. If he shows the same legs in this race he could legitimately be a threat to a non-peak Jonas Vingegaard. Besides, his time-trialing and sprinting is also quite strong, which can see him enter the queen stage ahead. The team has Jai Hindley and Lennard Kämna as further weapons to chase GC success or at least mix things up. Legitimately a threatening lineup.
Ben O'Connor - Second at the UAE Tour was heartbreak for O'Connor. He shouldn't have the responsibility here however with Visma at the start line. He has shown incredible form in Murcia and UAE and I do expect it to continue here. Good time-trialing and good climbing abilities, he joined Vingegaard at the podium of the Criterium du Dauphiné last year and he could very well do the same this time around.
INEOS - INEOS have a very diverse lineup at the start, with a few riders focusing on stage wins as their priority. But we can never discard GC attempt from some of them, most likely Tom Pidcock who is aiming for the Tour de France this year and absolutely will want to improve in stage-racing. This is one that suits his abilities. Thymen Arensman is also a card for the British team, having freedom here to chase a result of his own
Simon Yates - Team Jayco AlUla rely on Simon Yates as their leader for the race. In the past, a winner of the overall classification, the Briton found tremendous form and consistency last year which he would like to continue into 2024. In January he finished seventh at the Tour Down Under. He did win the Saudi Tour but not exactly in impressive fashion. He will need a much superior level to fight for a top result here, but with a month of extra training in the bank he could've definitely already reached that level.
Tao Geoghegan Hart - I do not have doubts left, Hart has recovered from his brutal injuries of last year. He looked good at the Volta ao Algarve, and here at Tirreno he will find terrain that suits him quite better. If he finds the form he had last year, a podium is very much on the table.
Richard Carapaz - Stage stage win and second in GC at the Tour Colombia gave great hopes of Carapaz slowly riding back into his best. But at Gran Camiño he did not even finish in the Top10 in a modest field. Hence, it's hard to know what to expect from he Ecuadorian. Stage wins should be the priority for EF, Carapaz can fight for a good result but he will need some better form than that of last week.
Enric Mas - Mas starts this season later than usual. Having the Tour-Vuelta double in mind, the Spaniard aims for a lighter spring calendar this year. Following the likes of Tadej Pogacar and Primoz Roglic, instead of racing he spent the entire month of February training. Ordinarily not the ideal run-up to this race, however some riders can actually feel quite good with it. He can be one, for sure.
The likes of Guillaume Martin, Kévin Vauquelin and Cristián Rodríguez are among other figures that may chase a GC result; they have the legs but also a race like this could present quite good UCI points that both teams need.
Other big figures
With a flat opening time-trial, it is no surprise that we have the likes of Filippo Ganna, Mikkel Bjerg and Magnus Sheffield present who can be the first race leaders definitely. This is also the favourite preparation race of the spring classics specialists. We have riders such as Julian Alaphilippse, Kasper Asgreen, Ben Healy, Marc Hirschi and Magnus Cort Nielsen also present.
As for the sprinters we've got Biniam Girmay, Jasper Philipsen, Mark Cavendish, Jonathan Milan, Cleb Ewan, Casper van Uden, Phil Bauhaus, Tim Merlier, Alberto Dainese, Alexander Kristoff and Soren Waerenskjold all present.
Prediction Tirreno-Adriatico 2024 overall classification:
*** Jonas Vingegaard
** Daniel Martínez, Ben O'Connor, Juan Ayuso
* Isaac Del Toro, Cian Uijtdebroeks, Jai Hindley, Tom Pidcock, Simon Yates, Tao Geoghegan Hart, Richard Carapaz, Enric Mas, Kévin Vauquelin, Guillaume Martin
Pick: Jonas Vingegaard
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- Most of these have nothing to do with rider safety or are completely unachievablevappaxbipmv23-12-2024
- Depends on how fast the Cipressa would be beforehand and in what condition Philipsen would bevappaxbipmv23-12-2024
- Some things sound crazy until they aren't, what if he's actually right? 🤷vappaxbipmv23-12-2024
- Why make a comment to state the obvious? Of course MvdP is much better at CX than Pogacar, does anyone doubt that But that wasn't his pointvappaxbipmv23-12-2024
- If you look at road alone obvi Pogacar is the better rider. But maybe MVDP is the better overall rider since he can win in three plus disciplines?mobk23-12-2024
- Correction on 2021 Olympics. It was mainly the Dutch ladies who didn’t know who was leading the race. Other teams like the Germans and Italians knew that Kiesenhofer was out front.mobk23-12-2024
- A champion turning into a sore loser. Or is he on coke again?
UltimateOpportunist23-12-2024 - If you look at the major races they’ve both been in, van der Poel had the early edge as lately Pogacar has had the advantage. It’s all on procyclingstats.RidesHills23-12-2024
- I wouldn’t assume Tadej can’t win at cross. He did a cross race, not a World Cup, a few years ago and crushed the field. It was a minor race. But he can win anywhere.mij23-12-2024
- I wonder what would happen if Pogacar attacked on the Cipressa instead of the Poggio in San Remo? Would MvdPoel still be able to follow?Ride197423-12-2024