PREVIEW | GP de Québec 2024 - Can Tadej Pogacar win comeback race?

The 13th of September will see a long-awaited return of the World Tour peloton and racing to Canada, for what is the first of the two Canadian hilly classics: GP de Québec. This one being more sprinter friendly, it should see more tactical racing in the streets of Québec, with several riders within a shot of taking a big win. We preview the race.

The route will feature a total of 204 kilometers, which are divided by 16 laps, each with just under 13 kilometers in distance. There are 2400 meters of climbing in what is an all-day rolling road race, as each lap contains three small hilltops to face. The first half of the circuit sees the riders descend from the center of Québec down into the river for the first five kilometers, and then throughout the next four there will be a pan-flat section where the teams will, in each lap, reorganize and look to position their leaders into the difficult part of the race.

The first little ascent features 300 meters at 8.3% - the Côte de la Montagne - and finished with 3.5 kilometers to go, on the final lap of course. A very short but fast downhill section follows before the second kick up which will be the Côte de la Potasse which is 400 meters long at 6% and finished with just 2 kilometers to go.

The road briefly flattens before the final grind into the line, which will feature 1.1 kilometers at 4%. Not deadly gradients, but some that can see late attacks succeed, can suffocate some sprinters, and will also make a big difference when it comes to the energy the riders will have into a final sprint.

The Weather

A warm afternoon, and some southwestern wind which can come as a headwind in the final straight, but relatively irrelevant within most of the circuit.

The Favourites

Sprinters - Besides Benoît Cosnefroy in 2022, this race has been won in a sprint in all recent editions. This is the most likely scenario, it's a hilly classic but the sprinters that are present can climb well and the reality is that this is just not a hard enough circuit to make differences. Only an attack in the final kilometer can succeed and that is if there aren't leadouts present behind.

In a regular scenario, there will be enough interest. Michael Matthews is a two-time winner here and with certainty a big favourite for the win always in the slight uphill sprint. Defending champion Arnaud De Lie (with Maxim van Gils as a possible leadout) is also here and he will be perhaps even the strongest rider for this circuit I reckon... We have got Biniam Girmay who in peak form could be just as strong but that is unsure; Cofidis' duo Bryan Coquard and Axel Zingle; Movistar duo Alex Aranburu and Ivan García Cortina; and further outsiders in last year's runner-up Corbin Strong, Max Kanter and Marius Mayrhofer.

Climbers - In a different category we have got the climbers. These men will stand much better chances in the GP de Montréal but the race does feature some climbing here and they can attack, or possibly sprint for a minor place. With one exception: Tadej Pogacar. The Slovenian hasn't raced since the Tour de France... It can be argued that at times he hasn't returned in his best form but at the same time it's Pogacar, who can attack on the final climb (as he doesn't really have anything to lose) but even in a sprint he can win against this competition. UAE also have Juan Ayuso and Tim Wellens as strong cards to push the pace hard or attack the race.

Matteo Jorgenson, Tobias Johannessen, Ilan van Wilder, Romain Bardet, Simon Yates and Bahrain duo Pello Bilbao and Santiago Buitrago will also be interesting riders to keep an eye on.

Classics Riders - Plenty specialists, mostly puncheurs, most will have a better chance in Montreal. A few have a chance to finish high in a sprint such as Julian Alaphilippe, Andrea Bagioli, Patrick Konrad, Dorian Godon, Sergio Higuita, Axel Laurance, Neilson Powless, Matej Mohoric, Romain Grégoire, Edoardo Zambanini and Tour of Britain winner Stephen Williams.

Most will look to succeed with a late attack however, it's a very hard task but someone may have their luck with good timing. The likes of Ben Healy, Alberto Bettiol and Valentin Madouas are actually dangerous riders if they have their best form here. We should also take into consideration other strong figures such as Magnus Sheffield, Toms Skujins, Paul Lapeira, Max Schachmann, Alberto Bettiol and Visma duo Tiesj Benoot and Per Strand Hagenes.

Prediction GP de Québec 2024:

*** Arnaud De Lie, Tadej Pogacar
** Michael Matthews, Axel Zingle, Biniam Girmay
* Bryan Coquard, Corbin Strong, Matteo Jorgenson, Tim Wellens, Maxim van Gils, Julian Alaphilippe, Toms Skujins, Valentin Madouas, ben Healy, Alex Aranburu, Stephen Williams, Alberto Bettiol

Pick: Arnaud De Lie