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PREVIEW | GP de Québec 2023 - Rain makes for open race; Skjelmose, Mohoric, Wellens, Laporte and Matthews among big favourites
CyclingFriday, 08 September 2023 at 18:43
Preview. The 8th of September will see a long-awaited return of the World Tour peloton and racing to Canada, for what is the first of the two Canadian hilly classics: GP de Québec. This one being more sprinter friendly, it should see more tactical racing in the streets of Québec, with several riders within a shot of taking a big win.
The route will feature a total of 204 kilometers, which are divided by 16 laps, each with just under 13 kilometers in distance. There are 2400 meters of climbing in what is an all-day rolling road race, as each lap contains three small hilltops to face. The first half of the circuit sees the riders descend from the center of Québec down into the river for the first five kilometers, and then throughout the next four there will be a pan-flat section where the teams will, in each lap, reorganize and look to position their leaders into the difficult part of the race.
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Québec - Québec, 204 kilometers
The first little ascent features 300 meters at 8.3% - the Côte de la Montagne - and finished with 3.5 kilometers to go, on the final lap of course. A very short but fast downhill section follows before the second kick up which will be the Côte de la Potasse which is 400 meters long at 6% and finished with just 2 kilometers to go.
The road briefly flattens before the final grind into the line, which will feature 1.1 kilometers at 4%. Not deadly gradients, but some that can see late attacks succeed, can suffocate some sprinters, and will also make a big difference when it comes to the energy the riders will have into a final sprint.
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GP de Québec circuit
The Weather
Map GP de Québec 2023
A race that can be made tougher by the weather conditions. Rain is forecasted for the whole Friday in Québec, it is expected to be less intense (maybe stopping) throughout the final hours of the race, but slippery roads are almost certain. It will make for a more tense race, more selective, more favourable for attackers.
The Favourites
EF Education-EasyPost - A team with plenty cards. In North America EF will have special motivation to perform, and they have the weapons to do it. Magnus Cort Nielsen falls into the spectrum of the sprinters who are very well suited to a hilly day. Alberto Bettiol, Ben Healy and Neilson Powless are each big favourites if they have their best legs, whilst Mikkel Honoré and Esteban Chaves are also strong enough to make the race tough on the climbs and play into the collective favour.
UAE Team Emirates - Another team with immense depth. Perhaps a lineup better suited to Montréal. Let's split the lineup into two groups. One is Adam Yates, Brandon McNulty and Rafal Majka who are stronger climbers, they will prefer the other classic and here will be outsiders. The other group is made of Marc Hirschi, Diego Ulissi and Tim Wellens, all of them explosive, with a strong sprint and pure puncheurs. The Belgian specially is a huge threat taking into consideration the form he showed at the Renewi Tour where he was victorious.
Bahrain - Victorious - There Matej Mohoric looked equally as strong, and will be a threat as big as Wellens. A strong sprinter specially when the race tilts up, a brilliant rouleur and a rider who is not afraid to attack whether in sight of the finish line or 50 kilometers away. Bahrain have Pello Bilbao and Jack Haig to further take place in an offensive race.
Lidl - Trek - Lidl are another team with great ambitions because of the racing in North America, and they can realistically aim for the victory. After an impressive season, it would be no surprise to see last week's Maryland Cycling Classic winner Mattias Skjelmose in contention for the win. Adding an in-form Toms Skujins and we've got an interesting lineup.
Israel - Premier Tech - The team have Canadian sponsorship and a hefty Canadian rider and staff base. The closest to a home team, I wouldn't call it in form but with a few interesting riders. Michael Woods will prefer Montréal but is a contender for a good result here if he plays his cards right; Corbin Strong is a good option for an uphill sprint; Simon Clarke is a mix of puncheur with a good finish; Derek Gee is a strong rouleur who can attack as is the case with Hugo Houle who just finished in the podium of Maryland.
Soudal - Quick-Step - Julian Alaphilippe is the first name that pops to mind but is a big question. The Frenchman's form is questionable, even though it's a very good finale for him I struggle to see him ride for the win. Ilan van Wilder will be a great card for Sunday whilst here he'll be an outsider, the team could well make it's biggest bet on Mauro Schmid who prefers these big-ring explosive efforts.
INEOS Grenadiers - A team that could have in Ethan Hayter a weapon for the win, but as he returns to form expectations are modest. Michal Kwiatkowski returned to great form this summer and could well fight for the win, whilst Daniel Martínez and Pavel Sivakov offer more offensive cards.
In the field of the sprinters, besides some names mentioned above, we find the likes of Arnaud De Lie, Alex Aranburu and Intermarché-Circus-Wanty duo of Biniam Girmay and Mike Teunissen. In the past often this race ended in a reduced group sprint, but some of the main figures that have in the past ruled here are not present. There isn't a rider like a van Aert or Sagan at his prime or another big figure who would be unaffected by the climbs. Michael Matthews is here, Jayco AlUla do have a quality team including team with Simon Yates to cover attacks. However one team won't be enough. Hence, it becomes more attractive to the attackers as there will be few teams thinking of a sprint. Quinten Hermans could likely do quite well if it comes down a sprint in this terrain.
The startlist does include plenty other quality classics riders. Last week's Bretagne Classic winner for example Valentin Madouas will be a very big favourite as he carries great form. He leads an extensive list of French classics specialists that also include defending champion Benoît Cosnefroy, Axel Zingle, Victor Lafay and Arkéa's Samsic double-pronged approach of Clément Champoussin and Warren Barguil.
Less explosive but also outsiders for the race include Jai Hindley who's opted out of the Vuelta a Espana towards a different calendar, Matteo Jorgenson and Team DSM-Firmenich duo Andreas Leknessund and World Championships breakthrough Matthew Dinham.
Prediction GP de Québec 2023:
*** Matej Mohoric, Mattias Skjelmose, Tim Wellens
** Valentin Madouas, Alberto Bettiol, Michael Matthews
* Tiesj Benoot, Benoît Cosnefroy, Pello Bilbao, Marc Hirschi, Arnaud De Lie, Christophe Laporte, Ilan van Wilder, Ben Healy, Michal Kwiatkowski
Pick: Tim Wellens
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