PREVIEW | Vuelta a Espana 2023 stage 14 - With Kuss, Roglic and Vingegaard completing the podium, how will Jumbo-Visma race?

Preview. Stage 14 was a day highly anticipated that could blow up the Vuelta a Espana, but that has already happened. Jumbo-Visma have taken full control of the race, but the question now lies in how they will race in the high mountains alongside each other.

The peloton will leave the Pyrenees, but not before another incredibly hard mountain challenge. Stage 14 from Sauvaterre-de-Béarn and Belagua will feature the Col Hourciére and the Port de Larrau in quick succession, both HC category climbs into the Spanish border. The stage will still see a first category summit finish at Belagua to wrap a very hard day.

If raced aggressively, this could end up being the queen stage. As is usually the case at the Tour de France however, the organizers decided to go with a flat start. This will not be good for the climbers looking to form a breakaway, it can end up limiting the tactical moves from the bigger teams. However after 50 kilometers of riding the mountains arrive.

The first of which is the Col Hourcère, it's 11.6 kilometers at 8.3%, in terms of profile incredibly similar to the Alpe d'Huez, coincidentally it also features plenty switchbacks. It summits with 91 kilometers to go however it's hard enough for any kind of attack that teams may plan.

The descent comes and leads the riders right to the base of the next climb, so there is very little time to reorganize. The Puerto de Larrau will follow quickly after, it's 15 kilometers long at 7.9% but is even harder than the average suggests. It's first 10 kilometers average over 9%, it's another brutal climb, two in a row will make it a very difficult mission.

There is a steep punch to it's summit which comes with 47 kilometers to go. The descent will now not be as long, in fact only a few kilometers long before reaching the third climb of the day, the easy by comparison Portillo de Lazar which summits with 33 kilometers to go, it's 3.2 kilometers at 5.8%.

Then there is a transition phase until the final climb. The riders have entered Spain but will come to the literal border with France once again. The climb to Belagua won't be as hard as the previous ones, however with the fatigue built up it can certainly be as dangerous. It's 9.4 kilometers long at 6.3%, it's final kilometer almost flat, most of the climb hence being a little steeper than the average. It is a climb that features plenty switchbacks, so the constant gradients don't mean that it's a hard place to attack.

The Weather

Some southern wind. Unfavourable in the first two ascents, making it even less likely for there to be long-range action. In the final ascent much will be in a crosswind with multiple hairpins, but in the final kilometers it'll be a cross-tailwind to the finish.

The Favourites

The Jumbo question - That is what we now wonder. I will not be saying anything surprising when claiming that the Vuelta a Espana has been virtually sealed by the Dutch team today. Yes, a lot of racing is still remaining, but there is simply no sign that Jumbo can be put on the wrong foot. Collectively the strongest team in support of their leaders, and each leader looked stronger than the rest of the competition today. An experienced team with three leaders in form, you can't surprise them in this terrain.

Sepp Kuss remains in the lead, and now we will see what orders will be given. With Primoz Roglic and Jonas Vingegaard having multiple Grand Tours in their palmarès, including the two already disputed this year, I think they would be rather accepting of "gifting" Sepp Kuss the win if he does not crack. That is a big if taking into consideration it's his third Grand Tour of the season, but so far his form looks as good as always. If given freedom, I think the trio will only battle each other on the Angliru or Cruz de Linares. Here no, the final climb won't be hard, I don't necessarily believe they have to attack and distance the competition any further, but instead just cover attacks and keep the race as it is.

Safe to say the other GC riders are condemned to ride in the wheel and then fight between each other. Juan Ayuso and Enric Mas are the only two riders that seem to still be able to contest the podium, they will fight for it, but they won't risk any move from far away. None of the GC competitors will get freedom either as Jumbo have enough riders and quality to cover all possible attacks.

So the only other option for a stage win comes from a rider that will take part in the breakaway. After today, a few more fit the list, including a certain Remco Evenepoel - but I believe he will take it easy and then try to go for stage wins in the final week. Today's fatigue will be in the legs, that does bring better chances for a breakaway success tomorrow, as does the unlikely happening of a big GC fight, but on the opposite side of the table is the pan-flat start to the stage which won't help a strong group form itself.

We can have a few riders trying to go for the KOM jersey it is a key day for the competition, in there we have Michael Storer and Jesús Herrada as clear riders who will try. Einer Rubio, Santiago Buitrago, Juan Pedro López, Emanuel Buchmann, Romain Bardet, Lennard Kämna and Max Poole are a few more candidates to go for the win if it sticks.

Prediction Vuelta a Espana 2023 stage 14:

*** Jonas Vingegaard, Primoz Roglic
** Sepp Kuss, Michael Storer, Santiago Buitrago
* Enric Mas, Juan Ayuso, Einer Rubio, Juan Pedro López, Emanuel Buchmann, Romain Bardet, Max Poole

Pick: Primoz Roglic