PREVIEW | GP de Montréal 2024 - Tadej Pogacar's final test before World Championships
Cycling
The second round of the Canadian classics on the 15th of September will see the riders head to Montréal, where a circuit around the Mont-Royal will decide the race. We preview the race.
A total of 18 laps will be ridden in Montréal, all based around the Mont-Royal park, where the riders will spend the afternoon, however not only enjoying the scenery, but also having to go into a brutal race that will see plenty attacks and aggressive racing. There are over 4000 meters of climbing and 213 kilometers on the menu, making it harder and longer than Québec. There will also be more laps due to the shorter circuit, which is very explosive with three clear uphill sections and the rest of the circuit mostly downhill. The lap opens up immediately with it’s major feature, the Côte de Camilien-Houde, 1.7 kilometers at 7.6%. This will be the hardest section of the circuit and likely the one that will be attacked the hardest, finishing with 10.5 kilometers to go.
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A very fast descent follows, with the Côte de Polytechnique coming after summiting with 6 kilometers to go, it is 800 meters long at 4.9% average gradient but goes up to 10%. And with 3 kilometers will be the Côte Pognuelo with 500 meters at 7.5%.
All three are very explosive climbs, where damage can be made. The riders will then very quickly travel back into the Avenue where the race is to finishing, going down it before turning back in the roundabout and within sight of the line. This won’t be a regular sprint however, with the final 600 meters featuring 4% of gradient which can alter the result of the sprints that will happen.
Hot temperatures, not far from 30 degrees, and a slight southern breeze that shouldn't be strong enough to really affect the race.
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The Favourites
Tadej Pogacar - Last year UAE made it a hard race and then attacked with Adam Yates on the final climb. A pure climber, and he still made the difference... So it is absolutely possible to make this a race suited even to the non-explosive riders. But Pogacar IS explosive as well so even if he can't drop everyone on the main climb of the circuit he stands a good chance of winning. But UAE will certainly push the pace as they did in Québec (only now with more damage) as they perfectly implemented the strategy last year and have the riders to do serious damage here, with Tim Wellens, Finn Fisher-Black and Juan Ayuso being just two examples. I expect a solo win, but a few riders may be able to match him as he doesn't yet look to be in his peak form.
Visma - Visma have several strong riders to pay attention to. Per Strand Hagenes was better suited to Québec but is a bit wildcard here; Jan Tratnik and Wilco Kelderman are riders who may want to attack the race early on whilst both Tiesj Benoot and Matteo Jorgenson looked incredibly strong on Friday and on this type of climb I think they can ride brilliantly and fight for the win.
Climbers - If the riders go hard all day long or UAE makes serious bids than the climbers can certainly benefit from it. Riders such as Bahrain's Pello Bilbao and Santiago Buitrago, Jayco's Simon Yates, Cofidis' Ion Izagirre, DSM's Romain Bardet, INEOS' Laurens de Plus and Alex Baudin of Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale.
Classics Riders - As was the case in Québec, the bulk of contenders for a result are puncheurs and classics riders, many of them preparing for the World Championships. Particular attention must be in Lotto Dstny with Jenno Berckmoes but particularly Maxim van Gils who look to be in great form after their exhibition in Québec. The likes of Bauke Mollema, Edoardo Zambanini and Rudy Molard also look in tip top conditions and are riders to consider that I wouldn't initially put on the table.
Within these, there are a few riders that would wish for a hard race from far away such as Aurélien Paret-Peintre, Tobias Johannessen, Valentin Madouas and EF duo Neilson Powless and Ben Healy who are specialists in the long races. 'Home' team Israel - Premier Tech have serious chances of fighting for top results... Derek Gee is a card but isn't seemingly in good form, but the same can't be said of Stephen Williams who is in great form after his Tour of Britain win and national champion Michael Woods just off a Vuelta a España victory, extremely motivated and well suited to this race.
Others will want a more punchy race such as Magnus Sheffield, Matej Mohoric, Toms Skujins, Max Schachmann, Alberto Bettiol, Julian Alaphilippe, Romain Grégoire and Alex Aranburu. More explosive and pure puncheurs, they can do better if the race comes down to only a few efforts.
A few fast men may also chances of fighting for a strong result, but I wouldn't say victory. Arnaud De Lie is looking stupendous and I think he can do well, but this race is too much for the climbers for him to thrive... Still I wouldn't discard him, but he won't have the team working for him as was the case on Friday. We've got Michael Matthews, who if the race is not overly hard can certainly survive and be a threat in a sprint; and perhaps riders such as Biniam Girmay and Axel Laurance can be considered as outsiders if they are on a great day.
Prediction GP de Montréal 2024:
*** Tadej Pogacar
** Matteo Jorgenson, Tiesj Benoot, Maxim van Gils, Stephen Williams
* Pello Bilbao, Santiago Buitrago, Ion Izagirre, Jenno Berckmoes, Arnaud De Lie, Michael Matthews, Valentin Madouas, Ben Healy, Neilson Powless, Michael Woods, Toms Skujins, Julian Alaphilippe, Alberto Bettiol, Alex Aranburu
Pick: Tadej Pogacar
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- Exactly who, Joey, is "they"? Flimsy, illogical conspiracy theories aside, it is in no one's interest (financial or otherwise) to "drive away small local events." Major cultural and macroeconomic factors are reducing ridership, but there is no "they" in this context.verve82520-12-2024
- And our virtual platforms allow us to "ride" famous place that we can't get to in person, which is a pretty fabulous aspect of this weird weird sport.RidesHills19-12-2024
- Which off-season are you referring to? The one after he won the Tour of California? The one after he won 3 stages and was on the podium of the Vuelta? The one after TJV screwed up, never put him away, and lost the Tour on the time trial? We've seen the guy hit the wall, lose energy, nearly fail, and lose races ("I'm dead") more than once. He's got a visible threshold and his fueling regimen is a clear weak spot. You'll need more detail to make this more than under defined insinuations .RidesHills19-12-2024
- Interesting analysis. And yet, I'm in the US, and at a recent wedding reception as a group of us older folks had to stand at a certain place to keep track of a thing, we got to talking, and every single one of us had a favorite rider, a favorite circuit of races, a moment when we fell in love with the sport, and a joy in the complexities of it all. None of us knew about the other's fandom until that moment. It's wonderful that these are my brothers-in-law, and we now know to talk about this when the spouses aren't listening. Point being: there are fans all over, and for US folks, the loss of GCN+ has been huge. As so often, it's the media bottleneck that matters more than anything else. Look at F1 in the US before Netflix, as an example.RidesHills19-12-2024
- On the one hand, what he says is trivial. Of course it's genetics. It always is, in any sport. That's just obvious. Look at Mondo Duplantis, whose sprinting speed is key to his pole vaulting, for example - he's just plain faster than other vaulters and good at the rest of the event as well. In cycling, even when you take the most genetically weird group of people and give them amazing training, some will be better than others, as well. Distributions are distributions and there are outliers and that's just that. Pogacar's body is built for this kind of thing, it seems, with him only recently having had to pick up skills that others have used all along. I'm still inclined to believe that these folks are using entirely legal means to arrive at their shockingly good performance, given how more senior riders kinda complain about (or at least comment on) the regimens and control over the nutrition and exercise and all that. And in every population, there are edge cases of truly exceptional behavior.RidesHills19-12-2024
- And it’s likely going to get worse. They are going all-out to drive away small local events which are where a lot of new riders come from. They want fee income and Olympic medals. That’s all.JoeyB19-12-2024
- Oh Lordspock12319-12-2024
- Interesting suggestion, fo you think testing Tadej’s (or Bolts’ or so many others’) parents would have given us a preview of his potential then or what criteria do you have to pick parents with?Mistermaumau19-12-2024
- Even amateur teams suffer this sort. But this is also largely due to the precarious sponsorship, in very few sports do you find kit with so many sponsors having to be integrated and changing so regularly.Mistermaumau19-12-2024
- I think it’s pretty obvious what was responsible for destroying interest that used to be there.Mistermaumau19-12-2024