Preview. Stage 7 will be the first serious day in the mountains. Andreas Leknessund in the lead of the Giro d'Italia, Remco Evenepoel to understand if he's recovered from the crashes, and a whole array of riders who are looking forward to a 45-kilometer final ascent.
Stage 7 will be a long day on the road with the start in Capua, with a summit finish at over 2000 meters which will make for the first high mountain stage within the Apennines. It's the first true high-mountain stage and perhaps features the longest summit finish of the high-level calendar. Gran Sasso d'Italia hosts a finale at the Giro once again, with the finish line at Campo Imperatore.
Estimated start and finish times for Giro d'Italia stage 7: 11:15-17:15CET
The first 70 kilometers will mostly be flat, but from there on the scenario changes. Two ascents consecutively follow, one with 14.4 kilometers at 4.6% and into Roccaraso they'll climb 7.3 kilometers at 6.1%. This ends with 117 kilometers to go, this is a particularly long day on the bike, featuring several climbs but also a whole 218 kilometers in distance. It'll be a test of endurance, which will be made harder by the finale that follows.
The Apennines hold some jewels and this is one of them. 45 kilometers of climbing. They aren't without a few sections of restbite but there are only two section that feature tiny descents of a few meters. The riders will climb 1800 meters of altitude into a summit finish at over 2100. The start of it will be tough with the peloton facing the climb to Calascio which is 13.5 kilometers at 6%. There will be another 9.7 kilometers at 4% after, but these will be preparation for the actual final ascent.
Into Campo Imperatore the fatigue will start to feel itself, it's 6.3 kilometers at 7.2% and the gradients go up to 10% towards the end. It's an interesting summit finish, definitely one where differences can be made. Certainly the GC riders will save their legs for the final steep bits but there is the chance that such a long effort will completely drain the legs of some before the attacks come.
The Weather
Some southwest wind. As always in the area it shouldn't be felt too much throughout the day but it will in the exposed areas. Crosswind in the final kilometers are expected, maybe a bit of headwind, it will discourage attacks.
The Favourites
Remco Evenepoel - How will he have recovered from his injuries? They weren't too bad, but two falls in a rainy day will leave you stiff. Today was no test, tomorrow it will. If he feels nagging pain somewhere it can prove to be deadly in such a long effort the riders will take on. He will either way be conservative certainly, because for him it would be ideal to keep the overall classification as it is.
Primoz Roglic - Roglic has been on the verge of losing time on these two stages with late crashes or mechanicals. There has been tension but he hasn't lost time. The time-trial didn't go too well but he's had time to build some more form. I'd say Jumbo doesn't really have a team to put Evenepoel under pressure if he isn't showing good signs, but the final kilometers will see gaps and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Slovenian try to seize the opportunity.
INEOS - I think INEOS will take to the head of the peloton. I honestly believe they shouldn't, and whilst they can, use Pavel Sivakov and Thymen Arensman to put pressure on their rivals. It will become harder next week, and likely impossible in the final one. Tao Geoghegan Hart has great legs and not having crashed he could put in a great performance here. Geraint Thomas is unsure to be on his best form yet. Directly, it's unlikely they can drop the big two, but if they play tactics they can set up a late attack for Hart.
UAE - João Almeida likely is to race conservatively, his terrain is the final week. Here he doesn't have the pressure to make moves as he's sitting very well on GC and it's also not a very well suited ascent to his skills. Jay Vine may want to attack because of the time he's lost yesterday, and he needs to prove himself if he wants to also fight for the GC.
Bahrain - How will they play their cards? That will be an interesting question, Jack Haig and Damiano Caruso seem all-in for the GC and are unlikely to try anything crazy. Santiago Buitrago looks sharp, he doesn't have GC pressure but the team must be aware he may have the legs to become a proper GC contender. Having three cards to play could stimulate them to try if the race is indeed attacked early.
BORA - I think BORA will want to keep things as easy as possible because of Lennard Kämna. The German got sick in the days leading up to the race and may not have returned to his best form. Aleksandr Vlasov also hasn't shown yet great form recently so he's unlikely to attack hard, but both could feature within the first in the final kilometers.
Hugh Carthy - I wouldn't call it a make or break, but Hugh Carthy is under pressure. The TT on stage 9 will see him lose a lot of time and he's already over 2 minutes behind Remco Evenepoel. If he continues to have his best legs he will climb up the GC, if he struggles however he may consider dropping a few minutes and begin to think of stage wins. Rigoberto Urán will most likely be in the same situation, but more leaning towards stage wins.
Thibaut Pinot, Lorenzo Fortunato, Eddie Dunbar, Domenico Pozzovivo, and Einer Rubio will be among some outsiders who should better understand how they stand among the other climbers and if they really will be aiming for a spot in the overall classification. Equally, race leader Andreas Leknessund and Aurélien Paret-Peintre will be trying to defend the spots they've got in the GC after the successful breakaway in Lago Laceno.
The breakaway does also stand chances, as I do believe the GC fight won't truly explode. However the final climb is very long and at this point of the race there aren't world-class climbers yet chasing stage wins. Brandon McNulty would likely have that ambition, I don't expect UAE to work around Almeida yet. Jefferson Cepeda, Harm Vanhoucke, Patrick Konrad, Carlos Verona and Joe Dombrowski are certainly riders to keep an eye on.
Prediction Giro d'Italia 2023 stage 7:
*** Brandon McNulty
** Remco Evenepoel, Primoz Roglic, Tao Geoghegan Hart
* Jefferson Cepeda, João Almeida, Jay Vine, Aleksandr Vlasov, Jack Haig, Thibaut Pinot
Pick: Primoz Roglic
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