How a calculated risk won Visma the Giro: "There was a chance Carapaz would gamble and Del Toro wouldn't know what to do"
Cycling
The stage 20 of 2025 Giro d'Italia, which featured the returning giant Colle delle Finestre, will be remembered for many reasons. The tactical chess between Isaac del Toro and Richard Carapaz, the brilliant Wout Van Aert, and the fairy tale of Simon Yates are just a few of the many points that will be debated for many years to follow.
Ultimately, Visma | Lease a Bike were the biggest winners of the day with a pixel-perfectly executed strategy to turn the race upside down. However the overall victory of Yates did not come of it's own accord. Through his consistency in previouis nineteen stages, Yates survived all the chaos and havoc that got the best of pre-race favourites Primoz Roglic and Juan Ayuso, but still sat only third overall, more than a minute behind pink jersey Isaac del Toro.
"Until the seventeenth stage, Simon had been in second place behind leader Del Toro. Until then, there was less focus on Simon, but we realized there was a possibility Del Toro would focus more on Carapaz after Simon lost his second place," revealed Visma's DS Marc Reed how their daring maglia rosa coup come to life in an interview for Wieler Revue.
"We also thought there was a chance Carapaz would gamble on the Finestre and Del Toro wouldn't know exactly what to do. We mainly wanted to create a situation where that could happen. One way to do that was to get riders into the early breakaway, so Simon could still have someone with him in the 25 kilometers or so after the summit of the Finestre."
That prediction turned out to be 100% accurate, as the Ecuadorian tested his younger Mexican rival, but could not get a decisive advantage and so the two sat up. Suddenly, Yates was the one to make his move, and one of his accelerations ended up without a reply as Carapaz and Del Toro were too locked into their duel.
The second half of Visma's plan also went to a point as they managed to get a satellite rider up the road. And not just any name, but Wout Van Aert, a man that contributed significantly to Tadej Pogacar's defeat at the 2022 Tour de France. "Having Wout in the breakaway was a bonus," Reef confirms.
And the peloton would eventually turn out to simply not be strong enough to control the escaped group. "UAE was riding behind with only Baroncini. He had to control a group of thirty riders, which kept the gap growing. When EF Education-EasyPost decided to help, Baroncini dropped out again. When, at one point, a number of EF riders overpaced on a descent, they had to stop again. The gap between the leaders kept growing."
Simon Yates on Colle delle Finestre
Ace called 'Wout Van Aert'
All that played into the hands of Visma who now only needed for Yates to get rid of his rivals. "We knew: if Wout could start the Finestre with an eight-minute lead, there's a good chance he'd survive all the way to the summit. Several tactical factors made this denouement possible, but it all starts with having faith that it's possible to turn around."
And so, Yates finally settled unfinished business with Giro d'Italia which lasted since 2018. "It was almost meant to be, and that's what makes cycling so beautiful. This Giro d'Italia finale is, for me, the story of the year. It had the chance to put that day right in 2018, and it did so in a way that will forever capture the imagination."
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Ondrej ZhasilCycling Journalist
Ondřej Zhasil is a cycling journalist at CyclingUpToDate and has been part of the team since 2023. He is based in Ostrava, the third-largest city in the Czech Republic, and covers professional cycling across the main UCI competitions, including the Tour de France, the Giro d’Italia, and La Vuelta a España. A key focus of his work is startlist analysis and pre-race coverage, where he examines team selections, rider line-ups, and tactical scenarios ahead of major events.
Alongside WorldTour coverage, Ondřej has developed specific expertise in junior cycling and in racing across East Asia, including competitions in China and Japan. He also maintains a broad working knowledge of other disciplines and levels, including cyclocross, while continuing to expand his understanding of mountain bike racing.
Ondřej holds a bachelor’s degree in Mathematics and Physics, which supports his analytical, data-driven approach to performance and race analysis. In his reporting, he regularly uses ProCyclingStats for results, statistics, and historical context. He places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available.
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- When Thomas gets the bullet from INEOS he can get a job as a comedian.
Senna196013-11-2026 - Right on. The more the merrier.Occam13-11-2026
- Remember, Del Toro struggled in this Tour. He is great, no doubt about that, but comparing him to a four time gt winner is absurd at this point. He has the potential. We'll have to see how he develops.awp13-11-2026
- what did Jonas gift and to whom? just curious, haven’t heard about this.mij13-11-2026
- You don't gift grand tours as it has come to light that Jonas has come to regret doing such.
Front24213-11-2026 - Exactly you said it urslf - he outclimbed del toro by 19 sec. 19SEC and you say hes alot better than del toro still lol? And can also do the same where del toro did that to jonas even and del toro dauphine numbers better than jonas all year so why this hard whats the issue its super easy stuff - del toro wasnt that before. Then factor in both their trajectory the last years and the answer is self explonatory like i said. Nothing against jonas like many do but the typing is no the wall and so stupidly easy as its so self explanatory now. Have a good daymiguel13-11-2026
- Dirty ex doperFront24213-11-2026
- As far as points go they need to take a page or ten out of the Astana playbook!Lozza13-11-2026
- Ah, seems he’s been busy elsewhere! 😆Lozza13-11-2026
- Where is he when you need him!? Wake up man! You’re missing an opportunity!Lozza13-11-2026
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