ANALYSIS: Will Primoz Roglic return to the Tour de France in 2025?

Primoz Roglic has one of the most glittering palmares of any cyclist in the current peloton. He’s a four-time Vuelta a Espana champion, a Giro d’Italia winner back in 2023, and an Olympic gold medallist, which is the sort of CV most riders can only dream of.

But, as we all know, there’s one glaring omission from his palmares. The Tour de France. Whilst Roglic was the first man from Slovenia to win a grand tour, he was cruelly denied becoming the first of his nation to win the Tour by his compatriot Tadej Pogacar on that fateful day in 2020.

Since then, Roglic has had some legendary moments, but he’s never really made a name for himself at the Tour again. His recent comments about creating his 2025 race schedule based on what races Tadej Pogacar wouldn’t be at may have been a joke, but he has not yet confirmed his Tour de France participation for next year.

So, let’s look at whether Roglic will return to the Tour de France next year, and why things haven’t worked out for him in France in the past.

Primoz Roglic’s debut season with Red - Bull - Bora - hansgrohe was full of ups and downs. After a lacklustre showing in Paris-Nice, and crashing out of the Itzulia Basque country in April, Roglic returned to winning ways at the Critérium du Dauphiné in June. With his new team, the Slovenia looked ready to take on the likes of Pogacar and his former teammate Jonas Vingegaard at the Tour.

But once again, Roglic’s Tour de France campaign came up short due to a crash. He did of course come back twin the Vuelta a España for a fourth time in September, and so did have a positive 2024 overall. “Where he is at the moment, he is really unbeatable, or hard to match. But you never know what next year will bring,” Roglic stated about his compatriot Tadej Pogacar in an interview with Marca. Despite uncertainties, Roglic remains hopeful about future possibilities, adding, “I could say yes, I would like to win it, but also my palmares will be fine if I finally don’t get it.”  

After making the switch from Jumbo Visma to his new team Red - Bull - Bora - hansgrohe, Roglic returned to the Tour de France this year. He came in in strong form, having won the Criterium du Dauphine in June, the Tour’s main warm up race. Whilst he wasn’t the favourite for the overall victory, many had him as a favourite for the podium, under one condition: if he managed to stay on his bike.

But the Slovenian struggled early on, and was dropped on the San Luca climb on stage two, losing time already. He also struggled on the Galibier climb, and did not look as strong as we have seen in the past. On stage 11, in the Massif Central, finally things looked more promising for Roglic, as he followed an attack of Pogacar initially better than Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel. But once again, Roglic couldn’t stay on his bike, and crashed going round a hairpin in the final kilometres.

And this was a sign of things to come. The following day on stage 12, Roglic crashed hard on a flat stage, and he lost minutes behind his rivals, effectively dumping him out of GC contention. But it was worse than just losing time, as Roglic suffered from a fracture in his lower back, and he had to pull out from the Tour, as he did in 2022 and 2021.

Roglic’s Tour de France exits back in 2022 and 2021 were both significant setbacks. In 2021, Roglic's race came to an end after a brutal crash on stage 3, which left him struggling with injuries, including severe bruising and road rash. Despite attempting to push through, the pain ultimately forced him to withdraw before stage 9. This was a tough pill to swallow, as Roglic had been in strong form that year as he looked to avenge his loss to Pogacar and get his hands on the yellow jersey.

A year later, and the 2022 Tour was no less challenging for Roglic; he endured a dramatic crash on the cobbled stage 5, which led to a dislocated shoulder and significant back pain. Although he continued racing for a while, he had to abandon on stage 15, marking another early exit due to the cumulative toll of his injuries. The 2022 Tour was a huge moment for Roglic’s career at Jumbo Vimsa, as his crash occurred at the same moment Vingegaard ascended to the top. Just as Roglic had been usurped by his countryman in 2020, he was knocked off the throne by his teammate in 2022.

Of course, it wasn’t always a story of bad luck for Roglic at the Tour. He claimed his first Tour stage win in 2017 during stage 17, a demanding mountain stage that saw him triumph with a stunning solo breakaway. Roglic’s strength was evident as he attacked on the Col du Galibier, a performance that announced him as a future contender. His overall GC performances in the past, particularly in 2020, also reflected his capability of contending at the highest level, even though overall victory eluded him.

Unfortunately for him, the 2020 Tour is perhaps the race Roglic will always be connected to. Having held the yellow jersey for 11 days, Roglic’s control of the race appeared secure until the penultimate day, stage 20, when the individual time trial to La Planche des Belles Filles proved decisive. Despite entering with a lead of nearly a minute, Roglic suffered a dramatic reversal of fortune as Tadej Pogacar delivered an extraordinary performance, overtaking him to claim the yellow jersey and secure overall victory. Roglic's loss was not due to a lack of effort but rather an exceptional ride by Pogacar that will be remembered as one of the most stunning turnarounds in modern Tour history.

Now at 35 years old, Primoz Roglic remains one of the most accomplished cyclists of his generation, but the window for a Tour de France victory is narrowing. The Tour de France has seen a few riders defy age to claim victory, with the oldest champion being Firmin Lambot, who won in 1922 at 36 years old. Not far behind, Cadel Evans secured his place in history by winning the 2011 Tour at the age of 34, becoming the oldest winner in the modern era. These triumphs highlight the endurance and experience that seasoned riders can bring to the sport. For Primoz Roglic, now 35, these precedents serve as a reminder that winning the Tour de France at an older age, while rare, remains a possibility.

The bigger hurdle for Roglic to navigate is perhaps the era in which he races. Whilst everyone knows the incredible ability of Pogacar and Vingegaard, who have both beaten Roglic over the past few years, Remco Evenepoel may now have also overtaken Roglic in the peloton’s GC contender rankings. The Belgian is 10 years younger than Roglic, and his debut Tour de France earlier this year was very impressive, and we can be sure there’s more to come from him.

Roglic’s career has been defined by both victories and heartbreaking defeats, particularly at the Tour. While Roglic has expressed contentment with his achievements even if he never wins the Tour, the opportunity will not present itself forever. If he opts out of participating in the 2025 Tour, it could signify the end of his realistic chances to don the coveted yellow jersey. The decision could shape the legacy of a rider who has already secured his place in cycling history but may yearn for that final, elusive triumph.