ANALYSIS: Are Tadej Pogacar and UAE Team Emirates - XRG beatable in 2025? Or are they set for another historic season?
Cycling
The 2024 season was a historic one for UAE Team Emirates –
XRG, setting an almost unimaginable standard for success. Bouncing back from a
year when Visma won all 3 grand tours, Tadej Pogacar became the third person to
complete a Tour de France, Giro d'Italia, and World Championship hat-trick in
the same year, leading the team to a stunning year that saw them finish as the
number one-ranked team in the UCI rankings with a colossal 4852.1 points.
Beyond Pogacar’s individual brilliance, the team as a whole was
truly superb. With 81 victories, UAE Team Emirates stood as the winningest team
of the year, and their depth was just as impressive as their star power.
A staggering eight different riders finished in the top
three of a WorldTour stage race general classification: Isaac del Toro, Juan
Ayuso, Tadej Pogacar, Adam Yates, João Almeida, Brandon McNulty, Diego Ulissi,
and Tim Wellens. This level of consistency and depth cemented their place as
the most dominant team in professional cycling.
So, with 2025 well underway, the question is: Can UAE Team
Emirates – XRG match or even surpass their historic 2024 season?
2025 so far
If the early season results are any indication, UAE Team
Emirates remain the team to beat. As of mid-March, they have already amassed 16
victories, scored 4,852.1 UCI points, and comfortably sit atop the UCI team
rankings.
Their nearest competitor, the fast starting XDS Astana Team,
trails by nearly 2,000 points (3,129.7 UCI points), while Red Bull – BORA –
hansgrohe is over 3,000 points adrift. Even their supposed biggest rival, Team
Visma | Lease a Bike, has struggled to pick up points initially, currently
languishing in 17th place with just 1,237 points.
Battered and bruised, Tadej Pogacar still won Strade Bianche
The scale of UAE Team Emirates’ dominance is highlighted by
their high-profile victories. Tadej Pogacar has already claimed two major wins,
taking the UAE Tour and Strade Bianche, where Tim Wellens also finished third.
Meanwhile, new signing Jhonatan Narváez has immediately paid dividends,
securing victory at the Tour Down Under, while Adam Yates emerged victorious at
the Tour of Oman.
Considering that the team is still in the early months of
the season, these results suggest that UAE Team Emirates are on track for
another exceptional year, potentially even surpassing their 2024 campaign.
And they’re by no means just ‘Team Pogacar.’
While Tadej Pogacar remains the undisputed leader and the
face of UAE Team Emirates, and cycling as a whole, the team’s strength extends
far beyond one rider. The key to their success last year was their remarkable
depth, and that trend seems to be continuing in 2025.
In 2024, UAE had eight different riders secure podium
finishes in WorldTour stage races, a staggering show of their all-round
strength. That depth is once again proving vital in 2025, with multiple riders
already securing major victories and podiums.
The likes of João Almeida, Juan Ayuso, Adam Yates, and
Brandon McNulty provide UAE with an embarrassment of riches when it comes to
general classification contenders. Even though Tadej Pogacar may not be
defending his pink jersey at the Giro in May, UAE will still be one of the
favourites with Ayuso and Yates going for glory.
Ayuso in particular has started 2025 in impressive fashion,
after a hit and miss 2024. Could his time in the spotlight finally come in
Italy in May?
Moreover, the addition of Jhonatan Narváez has already
proven to be a masterstroke. The Ecuadorian’s win at the Tour Down Under
demonstrated his ability to step up and deliver when required, and he will
provide a new dimension to the team’s strategy in the grand tours. Remember,
Narvaez was the man that denied Pogacar winning the pink jersey on the opening
stage of last year’s Giro, he won’t be standing in the Slovenian’s way this
year!
Can anyone challenge UAE?
So far, no team has been able to mount a serious challenge
to UAE Team Emirates. XDS Astana has had a strong start, but with a 2,000-point
gap already, they will struggle to keep pace and their battle is definitely not
with UAE.
Perhaps the biggest surprise has been Team Visma | Lease a
Bike’s underwhelming start to the year. Expected to be UAE’s main rival, they
currently sit in 17th place with just 1,237 points, more than 3,600 points
behind UAE Team Emirates. While Visma still has time to turn things around,
their current form suggests they are nowhere near UAE’s level in terms of all
round strength.
That’s not to say that Jonas Vingegaard cannot beat Tadej
Pogacar at the Tour de France. But in terms of the all round team performance,
UAE still has a huge advantage. Unless a major shift occurs, it appears that
UAE Team Emirates will once again dictate the pace of the season, much like
they did in 2024.
What’s next?
With the Spring Classics in full swing and Grand Tours
approaching, UAE’s goal will be to sustain this early season momentum. Pogacar’s
upcoming schedule will be key, his performances in the Tour of Flanders,
Liège–Bastogne–Liège, and ultimately the Tour de France will define the year
once again. But can he finally pick up a win at Milano-Sanremo…
Beyond Pogacar, expect UAE to continue their multi-pronged
approach, with Ayuso, Almeida, Yates, and McNulty set to play key roles once
again. If UAE can maintain their form across the three week races as they did
in 2024, it will be hard for any team to challenge them in the overall
rankings.
The only thing missing from UAE’s collection last year was
the Vuelta a Espana title. And, who knows, Joao Almeida may have seriously
challenged for that crown had he not fallen ill, and he may want another chance
at GC glory later this summer. That is unless a certain Slovenian decides he
wants to complete his grand tour collection.
The early evidence suggests UAE Team Emirates – XRG are not
only replicating their 2024 level but could even surpass it. With a commanding
lead in the UCI rankings, multiple victories already secured, and their key
riders in top form, the team is once again setting the standard in professional
cycling.
Unless their rivals can mount a serious fightback, UAE Team
Emirates seem destined for yet another incredible season, perhaps one that even
outshines their legendary 2024 campaign.
Read also
Fin MajorCycling Journalist
Fin Major is a UK-based writer at CyclingUpToDate and has been part of the team since 2024. He is the site’s main writer for FAQs and evergreen explainers and has written around 2,000 pieces for the platform. Alongside this work, he focuses on in-depth analysis and covers the biggest races on the calendar, including the Tour de France, the Giro d’Italia, and La Vuelta a España, providing clear context around performance trends, tactics, and key storylines.
In his reporting, Fin uses reputable data sources such as ProCyclingStats for results, statistics, and historical context. He places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available. Outside of writing, Fin is an active cyclist, which supports his practical understanding of the sport and its demands.
claps 0visitors 0
Just in
Popular news
Latest comments
- If you go watch some races from last season other riders that have never caught Jonas...are now catching him. Some are just riding away from him and he can't hold the wheelmd197514-11-2026
- He just doesn't have the desire anymore. I read an article earlier today that said he almost retired last year. His reasoning was he is away from home to much. Visma was able to keep him riding by allowing him to skip certain camps. So, while currently Visma is doing altitude work...Jonas is at home. Which means 2 things. 1- He maybe fresher than other riders. But, not the condition. 2-Is a somewhat slap in the face to others on the team that are supposed to help him win. Yet feel like he hasn't done what they have so perhaps they don't provide as good of protection or they ride more for theme (which the team may not notice).md197514-11-2026
- Roglic could not have won anyway, after Jonas followed him when Roglic decided it was his turn for a stage win. Jonas had already attacked Kuss twice, so it was Jonas who was within seconds of taking the lead before Kuss was 'gifted' the win. It felt a bit like Roglic was being thrown under the bus when the team made his unhappiness public.Hills3314-11-2026
- POG1, another nice doc about our favourite, I watched most of it with a big smile on my face (except for the bits about his crashes 😢 obvs!).Lozza14-11-2026
- Martinez had a good year! 5th at the Tour was a great result for him, albeit largely through getting in successful breaks, but he held it better than Pidcock who’d done the same.Lozza14-11-2026
- guess what Valgren, you're 34, and no you're not good enough. sorry to say.mij14-11-2026
- I'm a sepp fan and like to think he earned that LOL, indulge me : ) I think Jonas was fine. Roglic did not want to concede to Sepp. and I don't think you ever attack your own teammate in the leaders jersey if he is holding his own, which Sepp just about was.mij14-11-2026
- enough time? he's 24 years old. He's won 10 races over the last 2 years and some are significant. I won't argue about his attitude being good - it needs to improve. But with some coaching and mentorship he has a lot of winning ahead of him and has plenty of time to win a GT. I don't think he will ever beat Tadej, but everyone else is fair game Look at Mas and Valverde - they were 31 and 29, respectively, when they won the Vuelta.mij14-11-2026
- Pogacar has a fine head on his shoulders.Careful investments and a couple of coffee shops sounds like a wonderful way to chill after an intense career.Stay healthy GOAT.
Brucegel14-11-2026 - I live in Maribor.PogiSloFans14-11-2026
Loading
Write a comment