ANALYSIS: Are Tadej Pogacar and UAE Team Emirates - XRG beatable in 2025? Or are they set for another historic season?

The 2024 season was a historic one for UAE Team Emirates – XRG, setting an almost unimaginable standard for success. Bouncing back from a year when Visma won all 3 grand tours, Tadej Pogacar became the third person to complete a Tour de France, Giro d'Italia, and World Championship hat-trick in the same year, leading the team to a stunning year that saw them finish as the number one-ranked team in the UCI rankings with a colossal 4852.1 points.

Beyond Pogacar’s individual brilliance, the team as a whole was truly superb. With 81 victories, UAE Team Emirates stood as the winningest team of the year, and their depth was just as impressive as their star power.

A staggering eight different riders finished in the top three of a WorldTour stage race general classification: Isaac del Toro, Juan Ayuso, Tadej Pogacar, Adam Yates, João Almeida, Brandon McNulty, Diego Ulissi, and Tim Wellens. This level of consistency and depth cemented their place as the most dominant team in professional cycling.

So, with 2025 well underway, the question is: Can UAE Team Emirates – XRG match or even surpass their historic 2024 season?

If the early season results are any indication, UAE Team Emirates remain the team to beat. As of mid-March, they have already amassed 16 victories, scored 4,852.1 UCI points, and comfortably sit atop the UCI team rankings.

Their nearest competitor, the fast starting XDS Astana Team, trails by nearly 2,000 points (3,129.7 UCI points), while Red Bull – BORA – hansgrohe is over 3,000 points adrift. Even their supposed biggest rival, Team Visma | Lease a Bike, has struggled to pick up points initially, currently languishing in 17th place with just 1,237 points.

The scale of UAE Team Emirates’ dominance is highlighted by their high-profile victories. Tadej Pogacar has already claimed two major wins, taking the UAE Tour and Strade Bianche, where Tim Wellens also finished third. Meanwhile, new signing Jhonatan Narváez has immediately paid dividends, securing victory at the Tour Down Under, while Adam Yates emerged victorious at the Tour of Oman.

Considering that the team is still in the early months of the season, these results suggest that UAE Team Emirates are on track for another exceptional year, potentially even surpassing their 2024 campaign.

And they’re by no means just ‘Team Pogacar.’

While Tadej Pogacar remains the undisputed leader and the face of UAE Team Emirates, and cycling as a whole, the team’s strength extends far beyond one rider. The key to their success last year was their remarkable depth, and that trend seems to be continuing in 2025.

In 2024, UAE had eight different riders secure podium finishes in WorldTour stage races, a staggering show of their all-round strength. That depth is once again proving vital in 2025, with multiple riders already securing major victories and podiums.

The likes of João Almeida, Juan Ayuso, Adam Yates, and Brandon McNulty provide UAE with an embarrassment of riches when it comes to general classification contenders. Even though Tadej Pogacar may not be defending his pink jersey at the Giro in May, UAE will still be one of the favourites with Ayuso and Yates going for glory.

Ayuso in particular has started 2025 in impressive fashion, after a hit and miss 2024. Could his time in the spotlight finally come in Italy in May?

Moreover, the addition of Jhonatan Narváez has already proven to be a masterstroke. The Ecuadorian’s win at the Tour Down Under demonstrated his ability to step up and deliver when required, and he will provide a new dimension to the team’s strategy in the grand tours. Remember, Narvaez was the man that denied Pogacar winning the pink jersey on the opening stage of last year’s Giro, he won’t be standing in the Slovenian’s way this year!

So far, no team has been able to mount a serious challenge to UAE Team Emirates. XDS Astana has had a strong start, but with a 2,000-point gap already, they will struggle to keep pace and their battle is definitely not with UAE.

Perhaps the biggest surprise has been Team Visma | Lease a Bike’s underwhelming start to the year. Expected to be UAE’s main rival, they currently sit in 17th place with just 1,237 points, more than 3,600 points behind UAE Team Emirates. While Visma still has time to turn things around, their current form suggests they are nowhere near UAE’s level in terms of all round strength.

That’s not to say that Jonas Vingegaard cannot beat Tadej Pogacar at the Tour de France. But in terms of the all round team performance, UAE still has a huge advantage. Unless a major shift occurs, it appears that UAE Team Emirates will once again dictate the pace of the season, much like they did in 2024.

With the Spring Classics in full swing and Grand Tours approaching, UAE’s goal will be to sustain this early season momentum. Pogacar’s upcoming schedule will be key, his performances in the Tour of Flanders, Liège–Bastogne–Liège, and ultimately the Tour de France will define the year once again. But can he finally pick up a win at Milano-Sanremo…

Beyond Pogacar, expect UAE to continue their multi-pronged approach, with Ayuso, Almeida, Yates, and McNulty set to play key roles once again. If UAE can maintain their form across the three week races as they did in 2024, it will be hard for any team to challenge them in the overall rankings.

The only thing missing from UAE’s collection last year was the Vuelta a Espana title. And, who knows, Joao Almeida may have seriously challenged for that crown had he not fallen ill, and he may want another chance at GC glory later this summer. That is unless a certain Slovenian decides he wants to complete his grand tour collection.

The early evidence suggests UAE Team Emirates – XRG are not only replicating their 2024 level but could even surpass it. With a commanding lead in the UCI rankings, multiple victories already secured, and their key riders in top form, the team is once again setting the standard in professional cycling.

Unless their rivals can mount a serious fightback, UAE Team Emirates seem destined for yet another incredible season, perhaps one that even outshines their legendary 2024 campaign.