Edinburgh - Glasgow, 272.3 kilometers
As was the case in the European Championships of 2018, it will be an extremely technical course where organizing a chase is virtually impossible, and it highly favours attacking racing from early on. The finish line will be in front of the iconic George Square. The circuit is 14.5 kilometers long and has no less than a whole incredible 44 corners which are of around 90 degrees (or more).
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prizes!) This means that there will be three per kilometer almost exactly, which also equates to one each 350 meters. This means constant breaking, constant accelerations throughout a whole 150 kilometers. It is an unusual race, and a different type of effort than riders are used to in road races. You could see it almost as a four-hour long cyclocross race without the obstacles, the type of effort that will be done is similar, there is absolutely nothing constant about this one - looking at the detailed map of the circuit that becomes easily observable.
However when looking at the profile we get another story, one which will also lead to the explosive racing, which is that the circuit is far from flat. We can observe that there isn't any serious ascent, but the 14.5 kilometers are filled with tiny 'shark teeth'. A lot of the circuit is up and down, specially the last two third, they include a few hilltops that are noteworthy and can be some of the most likely spots for attacks to surge.
Park district, Scott Street and Montrose Street are ones to eye, but each are efforts of a minute or less, we should be seeing all-out sprints up them. However this circuit is much more than the climbs. Anyone who attacks will be hard to chase, meaning that a gap is dangerous wherever it's created, and with the circuit being technical from start to finish it provides opportunities for riders to get a gap all throughout.
Montrose will be the final meaningful climb of the circuit it reaches 13% and ends with 1.5 kilometers to go. From there on there are still five sharp corners, and the finishing straight will be flat and with 350 meters in length.
The Weather
Map Glasgow World Championships Men's Elite Road Race 2023
Some western wind. It'll make the day a little longer and slower as from Edinburgh to Glasgow there'll be large patches of a slight headwind. Not Crow road however. Within Glasgow the riders won't feel it, but they may feel the rain... Or not! Scottish weather is very unpredictable and the forecast doesn't point towards certain rain. If it does happen then attacks will be even more likely to succeed, if not it gives the peloton a better chance of organizing itself.
The Favourites
Belgium - Belgium was expected to and is the team most talked about. Debates are ongoing once again about their selection as a nation rich in classics specialists. In 2021 they had the depth but played it wrong, using it to work instead of attacking rivals. They would've learnt from the Leuven mistake. Here in Glasgow it's all about attacking once the race enters the final circuit. Working at the head is wasting energy. The team has the depth to attack right away from 150 kilometers to the finish and should do so, with
Remco Evenepoel and
Wout van Aert they have reasons to try and split things up from early on, whilst the team is so strong that any attack going likely will have Belgian riders disrupting the chase, their biggest card.
There is no one leader, instead three: Remco Evenepoel must win from an attack, although he sprints so well currently that a reduced group sprint could see him win under the right circumstances. Wout van Aert can outsprint most and counter-attack all, but as in the classics he must attack otherwise he will be the one put under pressure, as happened in Leuven. Both have to make moves within the last 90 kilometers and try to form a small cohesive group.
Jasper Philipsen has shown to have the legs to do similar, but he won't likely attack. With his sprint and less solo ability he should try to disrupt chases when Belgian attacks fly off the front, and if luck falls on his side in a sprint he could be unbeatable. The team have
Nathan van Hooydonck,
Victor Campenaerts and
Jasper Stuyven as riders to attack from very early on not to be caught off guard, all riders who under the right circumstances could also fight for the win.
Netherlands - And on the other side we've got the Netherlands. A lineup matching the Belgians almost completely. Van der Poel covers van Aert, van Baarle covers Evenepoel and Kooij covers Philipsen. Perhaps the Dutch have a slight disadvantage here, but cycling - and this race specifically - is not linear and this isn't a Zwift race where they can't see the riders besides them. The Netherlands have the numbers and should try to deploy the exact same tactics.
Mathieu van der Poel, a cyclocross expert, will love the incredibly technical and acceleration-filled circuit, he and van Aert could thrive under such circumstances. Both fought for the win in a similar circuit here in Glasgow back at the 2018 Europeans, they know they can handle what's coming. Van der Poels' unpredictability could see him try to surprise on the flat sections of the race.
Dylan van Baarle was second in Leuven and could have the same role here. As van der Poel will be under eye he and his massive engine could wreak havoc to any chasing group. Solo he can win, he can't be let go at any point of the race. Olav Kooij was second to van Baarle in the hilly nationals and has proven his ability as a classics rider - just as Philipsen - and packs a mean sprint, he's won seven races this year including at this week's Tour de Pologne. The Netherlands don't have as much depth as Belgium outside of those three, but should mimic the tactics and not be afraid to take risks.
France - The circuit is incredibly technical and with a corner essentially every 300 meters, organizing a chase (specially with rival teams likely to disrupt) in this terrain, with a few hills inbetween, can be mission impossible. Hence all other teams know they equally have to move early, not wait for the main teams to push the button so as to start their race. France has Julian Alaphilippe, winner in Leuven but currently an outsider for such a race. They lack a big leader but feature plenty outsider cards which allow them to be constantly on the move, an essential detail for their race. Valentin Madouas, Rémi Cavagna, Florian Sénéchal and Benoît Cosnefroy could be on the attack from early on, whilst both Christophe Laporte and Bryan Coquard love this terrain and could be among the sprinters to fight for a medal.
Denmark - The Danes are also in a very dangerous position.
Mads Pedersen headlines the lineup as a sprinter who's ideal for this terrain, he won in Yorkshire and ever since he's only proven himself further, but his sprint doesn't make him a prime favourite here, it's going to be all about being in the right move and he has to make the same effort that all others will need. Luckily for the team as a whole though, there are cards aplenty.
Kasper Asgreen and
Soren Kragh Andersen are the ideal type of rider for such terrain and could go on to win if they find their best legs,
Mattias Skjelmose has been very impressive this year and has another opportunity to prove his versatility, whilst
Magnus Cort Nielsen - despite not having shown his best version at the Tour - is a mini version of Pedersen who could be just as dangerous if his form has grown in the meantime.
Tadej Pogacar - This is not, unlike what I've read, a circuit very well suited to Pogacar. It's mostly flat, with a few little hilltops, it's perfect terrain for the heavy classics riders and endurance monsters. Nevertheless Pogacar has proven to be just as good as them in many terrains, including their own. But here he does not have a true climb to drop them, he has to play the tactic game and not solely depend on his legs. Form wise I think he's in an ideal position to tackle the race, but Slovenia is far from the strength it could have here and he will have to do it alone where things heat up, it's a matter of making the right move.
Italiy - A team packed with outsiders is how I'd call it. I have a very hard time seeing Italy win here but they definitely have the riders to spark moves and be in the winning attacks. Matteo Trentin, Andrea Bagioli and Alberto Bettiol will most likely be their main cards however the team can also count on national champion Simone Velasco and Lorenzo Rota who specialize in the hilly terrain.
Australia - Australia had the pleasure to host the worlds last year but now they find themselves across the world once again. The team does not feature the depth of others and will essentially rely on a sprint, but both their cards could be interesting. Michael Matthews crashed at the recent Prueba Villafranca which may have hampered his preparation, but with some time to recover he may now find better legs, and having won at the Giro d'Italia this year he shows he's still got what it takes. Kaden Groves is the second, also a winner at the Giro, he doesn't often find his best form but when he does - for example Volta a Catalunya and Volta Limburg Classic he's shown impressive climbing ability and is the kind of rider capable of surprising in a route like this.
Spain - The Spanish will have the Movistar core leading it essentially. On paper all four riders have quality to fight for a good result but in such a luxurious field you need the best and their very best legs. However Ivan García Cortina has showed a very high level in the classics this year and Alex Aranburu is the type of sprinter/puncheur who can handle this terrain and not surprise with a spot in the top 10.
The startlist even outside of the most powerful national teams is one of luxury. Sprinters, rouleurs, classics specialists (both for the cobbles and hills) are all present, it's a very big opportunity and many come with great form. Take 2013 winner Michal Kwiatkowski for example who won at the Tour de France and was in flying form this week at the Tour de Pologne, Jhonatan Narváez who won three stages and the overall classification at the Österreich-Rundfahrt, and Alexey Lutsenko who has won the Circuito de Getxo this weekend despite missing the route when alone out front.
Then we've got figures very well suited to this circuit who've thrived this season.
Fred Wright, the British champion, comes as somewhat of a home favourite and biggest hope of the United Kingdom's team, he's won on a route very similar to this. I consider
Ben Healy a very dangerous rider, perfect for solo moves, great endurance and the punchy circuit will suit him.
Marc Hirschi has recently won the Prueba Villafranca, Giro d'Italia stars
Nico Denz and
Derek Gee and maybe even
Neilson Powless who didn't seem on his best form in the second half of the Tour but finished fourth at the Clásica San Sebastián.
Then we've got a few more outsiders that are essentially the cherry on top of the cake, the kind of riders that make sure that whoever wins this race is worthy of being a World Champion, because even the third/fourth line of favourites are riders capable of winning anywhere. On his prime this would've been a race where Peter Sagan would've been a man to beat, nowadays he can still ambition for a Top10. We've got the Swiss with Stefan Küng and Mauro Schmid, the Norwegian with Alexander Kristoff and Rasmus Tiller, Corbin Strong leading New Zealand's hopes and Nils Politt as a man in form after a strong Tour de France.
Prediction Glasgow World Championships Men's Elite Road Race 2023:
*** Wout van Aert, Mathieu van der Poel
** Ben Healy, Remco Evenepoel, Jasper Philipsen, Mads Pedersen
* Tadej Pogacar, Neilson Powless, Jhonatan Narváez, Michal Kwiatkowski, Christophe Laporte, Kasper Asgreen, Olav Kooij
Pick: Mathieu van der Poel
